forums

Turnovers in 2018

For a defense, the single biggest impact that can be achieved is the turnover. It is an immediate flip of the possession arrow. Points wins games, and every additional opportunity that the defense can provide is huge. A turnover that leads to a defensive TD is the best possible outcome of a defensive series, followed by turnover on downs, and punts. This is why we place so much emphasis on getting into the backfield and causing chaos. The easiest way for a defense to get to 4th down is a TFL. Nothing is quite as effective at stalling a drive than a QB getting dropped for an 8 yard loss on 2nd and 10. When you get a team to 3rd and 10+, there are only a few route trees that are available, and this simplifies things for the DB's. Plus they take longer to develop, giving our rush more time to reach the QB.
 
Advertisement
brock said:
I think People overstate the loss of both McIntosh and Norton sometimes, was McIntosh really good? Yes but he and especially Norton didn’t provide much as a pass rusher. You bring in a player just as good if not better than either of them in Gerald Willis who practiced all fall last season and have other talent at dt.

And let’s also not forget how bad our run defense was at times early on in some games that was due to the play of the dts too
Click to expand...

Totally agreed and not trying to overstate Norton or McIntosh on a talent basis. But they both had pretty good experience, and we're banking on a ton of unproven talent. Would I be shocked if the DT's by the end of this season are better than last year's group? Not at all.

I have a ton of faith in Willis and Bethel. Is Ford ready? Will Odenigabadado or Miller make any impact? Does Nesta have the strength and stamina to go against quality OL's? I see more talent/upside and less experience.
 
Loose Cannon said:
For a defense, the single biggest impact that can be achieved is the turnover. It is an immediate flip of the possession arrow. Points wins games, and every additional opportunity that the defense can provide is huge. A turnover that leads to a defensive TD is the best possible outcome of a defensive series, followed by turnover on downs, and punts. This is why we place so much emphasis on getting into the backfield and causing chaos. The easiest way for a defense to get to 4th down is a TFL. Nothing is quite as effective at stalling a drive than a QB getting dropped for an 8 yard loss on 2nd and 10. When you get a team to 3rd and 10+, there are only a few route trees that are available, and this simplifies things for the DB's. Plus they take longer to develop, giving our rush more time to reach the QB.
Click to expand...


Paragraphs can be your friend. My friend.
 
BoxingRobes said:
Turnovers, statistically, are luck based - or random, however you'd prefer to conceptualize it. Either way, there is no such thing as a "culture of turnovers"

Article is focused on the NFL, but the same can be attributed to the college game. Examining Luck in NFL Turnovers

If you've ever read a Phil Steele preview magazine, its one of the hallmarks of his preview magazine every year when he talks about the team repeating luck based factors.

If you are expecting a repeat of 2017 in 2018 in regard to the Turnover Chain, you're going to be disappointed. Miami can equal or best their win total from 2017 in 2018, but it won't come in the same way. They'll need to once again limit turnovers, but they'll need to get off the field on third down, generate longer drives on offense, etc.
Click to expand...

There are some good thoughts here but the conclusions you seem to be drawing are a little off. What I'm inferring is you think that because we had a lot last year, we'll have less this year. Yes, turnovers are subject to a high degree of randomness. But even random factors can be smoothed by factors that are consistent or can be controlled (high quality DL's, pressure on the QB, and DB's who know where to be). We have a lot of that. To conclude that because we created a lot of TO's last season, we will create a lot of TO's this season, would not be prudent, as you indicated. However, your implication that we will not create as many TO's this season assumes regression to the mean over a two-year period. If TO's are random, predicting one year to the next is more or less a coin flip.

It's a lot like the price of a stock. If it has a big jump today, that says absolutely nothing about how the price will move tomorrow. It could be another gain or a significant loss. But if the stock is thinly-held, the owners can have some influence on the price direction.
 
Gatorhater said:
The biggest thing about this recruiting class is not the couple pieces of crap recruits we lmissed but the two beasts we got. Our two new DTs are old school Miami type DTs. Best of luck to McIntosh and Norton, but I am rubbing my hands together waiting for the first Miller/Nesta assault on the dignity of the oppossing pocket. These two are the grizzly bear types we have been missing. Our DE will be feasting on QBs running for thier lives.
Click to expand...

Definitely agreed on these guys, but DT is not typically a position you're going to start as a true freshman, for good reason. In all likelihood, they'll need to get a bit stronger (especially in the legs) and really work on stamina, which is difficult for the big guys.
 
DTP said:
I am a firm believer that turnovers are FORCED. Maybe there's an occasional fluke play where the ball falls out of the runner's hand but most of the time players fumble because they get hit hard and/or the ball gets ripped out. Interceptions occasionally occur because a quarterback makes a terrible throw but most of the time passes get intercepted because defenders A)goad QBs into thinking they have an open man and B) are in the right place to jump a route and pick off a pass or C) the rush pressures the QB into making a poor throw.

To say the turnovers the defense forced last year were a fluke is insulting to the defense and the coaches. Now, there may not be as many this year because teams are so conscious of the chain but all that does is limit what our opponents can do. If an opponent is so scared to turn the ball over, that they play uber conservative, it's a win for the defense too.
Click to expand...

I can pretty much guarantee that if you look at every single TO in history, statistically you'll get an even 50/50 split between "forced" and "random." Naturally some are judgment calls, but there are too many elements to both sides to say it's one or the other.
 
CashMoneyCane said:
Definitely agreed on these guys, but DT is not typically a position you're going to start as a true freshman, for good reason. In all likelihood, they'll need to get a bit stronger (especially in the legs) and really work on stamina, which is difficult for the big guys.
Click to expand...

I agree, but imagine the impact they can have coming in fresh and just attacking the center of the online and the pocket. Fast, strong, mean, and fresh.
 
Gatorhater said:
I agree, but imagine the impact they can have coming in fresh and just attacking the center of the online and the pocket. Fast, strong, mean, and fresh.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah. And naturally don't expect either to start. But what happens if Willis gets hurt and Nesta needs to start? Miller looks like an absolute monster but I seriously doubt he's in playing shape for college and won't be by day 1. Tons of potential, should be impactful in limited reps, but if Willis or Bethel go down early in the season I'm very concerned.
 
CashMoneyCane said:
I can pretty much guarantee that if you look at every single TO in history, statistically you'll get an even 50/50 split between "forced" and "random." Naturally some are judgment calls, but there are too many elements to both sides to say it's one or the other.
Click to expand...

That is a good point. But even if turnovers are a 50/50 split between random and forced, you would need a spectacular jump in bad luck to have a huge drop-off in turnovers forced.

For example: Miami forced 31 turnovers in 2017. For arguments sake, we'll say 16 forced and 15 "lucky". Even if they are only half as lucky in 2018, you're still looking at 23-24 forced turnovers. Not a huge drop off from the prior year. That's if you consider turnover rate to be 50% skill and 50% luck. I'm more inclined to give a larger percentage to the skill portion but like you said, it's subjective.

Bottom line: Aggressive defensive schemes where creating turnovers is a premium will create turnovers at a higher rate consistently on a year to year basis. They may tend to give up more big plays or third down conversions but that's another topic entirely.
 
Advertisement
DTP said:
Aggressive teams that are instructed to go after turnovers tend to get lots of turnovers. Maybe they won't quite match last year's number but even if the number drops, it won't be by much.
Click to expand...
It's so difficult to read anything with those cheddar teeth in your avatar. Well played sir.
 
DTP said:
That is a good point. But even if turnovers are a 50/50 split between random and forced, you would need a spectacular jump in bad luck to have a huge drop-off in turnovers forced.

For example: Miami forced 31 turnovers in 2017. For arguments sake, we'll say 16 forced and 15 "lucky". Even if they are only half as lucky in 2018, you're still looking at 23-24 forced turnovers. Not a huge drop off from the prior year. That's if you consider turnover rate to be 50% skill and 50% luck. I'm more inclined to give a larger percentage to the skill portion but like you said, it's subjective.

Bottom line: Aggressive defensive schemes where creating turnovers is a premium will create turnovers at a higher rate consistently on a year to year basis. They may tend to give up more big plays or third down conversions but that's another topic entirely.
Click to expand...

I'm with you on this. I stated in another post that the randomness attributed to turnovers is somewhat smoothed given the factors that can be controlled. I definitely do not expect a marked decrease this season.
 
CashMoneyCane said:
Oh yeah. And naturally don't expect either to start. But what happens if Willis gets hurt and Nesta needs to start? Miller looks like an absolute monster but I seriously doubt he's in playing shape for college and won't be by day 1. Tons of potential, should be impactful in limited reps, but if Willis or Bethel go down early in the season I'm very concerned.
Click to expand...

DT is men folk position so kid fresh out of high school can always have issues. Also, the longer season always wears true freshmen out so limited pt helps there. I am not sure if any of our great DTs started as freshmen. These two coming in to spell starters will help keep those starters from getting hurt too. A lot on injuries come when guys get exhausted. We will problably only have these two for three years but I can wait one for them to start.
 
If the numbers go down I hope that is a result of the offense converting more 3rd downs giving the defense more time to rest. The defense was on the field way too much last year giving them more opportunities for turnovers to occur.
 
Gatorhater said:
DT is men folk position so kid fresh out of high school can always have issues. Also, the longer season always wears true freshmen out so limited pt helps there. I am not sure if any of our great DTs started as freshmen. These two coming in to spell starters will help keep those starters from getting hurt too. A lot on injuries come when guys get exhausted. We will problably only have these two for three years but I can wait one for them to start.
Click to expand...

Only one I can think of is Sapp, and I think he was a RS. And, you know... dude is one of the best DT's of all-time.
 
Back
Top