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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

ZCanes said:
Duke winning doesn't free up any spots. The 5 highest ranked conference champions get in. Its not 5 highest ranked conference champions in the top 25. If Duke wins and the final ranking places Duke 35th and there is another G5 school ranked 33rd, that team gets in. They rank outside of 25, they jut publish the "top" 25. There will always be 5 conference champs with auto bids in the current format. There is no chance of there not being a 5th conference champ in the "top" 25 and an extra at large bid opens up.
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They only rank the top 25 per their own website.
 
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Aside from them doing the right thing and moving us ahead of ND (wont happen) our only hope is BYU losing (they most likely will) and Bama getting dominated by UGA in the SEC ship. That's the only way we get into the playoff. If Bama simply loses, they wont be punished. They would have to be terrible. Our only path is Kirby executing Bama.
 
90scane said:
They only rank the top 25 per their own website.
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tdjones34 said:
If Duke makes it or not
It doesnt help Miami at all
It's top 5 conference champs
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I understand that but Pate's theory was that would help Miami get an "at large bid", assuming the CFP wouldn't want to leave out a P4 team.

It's just his theory.
 
This is getting so old

Five conference champs are in

Seven at large teams

If Duke wins and all the G6 favorites win, more than like two of their champs are in

All the favorites in G6 Head Coaches are in until they lose then they take P4 jobs
 
90scane said:
They only rank the top 25 per their own website.
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No, they rank the top 25 and then keep going if they have to. For example, if Duke wins, they will go beyond 25 to see if there are any other conference champions ahead of where they'll put Duke. Once they get to 5 conference champions, they stop. So JMU doesn't have to be in the top 25 to steal Duke's spot, they just have to be ahead of Duke. If that's 28 vs 31, or 33 vs 36, etc..whatever. But the committee will rank teams until they have their full bracket/field.
 
Tony4Canes said:
This is getting so old

Five conference champs are in

Seven at large teams

If Duke wins and all the G6 favorites win, more than like two of their champs are in

All the favorites in G6 Head Coaches are in until they lose then they take P4 jobs
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
No, they rank the top 25 and then keep going if they have to. For example, if Duke wins, they will go beyond 25 to see if there are any other conference champions ahead of where they'll put Duke. Once they get to 5 conference champions, they stop. So JMU doesn't have to be in the top 25 to steal Duke's spot, they just have to be ahead of Duke. If that's 28 vs 31, or 33 vs 36, etc..whatever. But the committee will rank teams until they have their full bracket/field.
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Exactly. People keep getting confused by this on every canes message board. There is no way an additional at large spot opens up, there will 100% be 5 conference champions with auto bids. Cased closed. No need for anyone to continue talking about this fantasy of Duke winning and helping us.

Our 3 chances are
1. CFP rankings become sane and ranks us ahead of ND (lol)
2. Bama getting stomped out by UGA (probably our only real chance)
3. Ole Miss getting left out because of Lane leaving (least likely of the 3)

That is it, there are no other scenarios.

There are zero additional paths for us to get in.
 
Tony4Canes said:
This is getting so old

Five conference champs are in

Seven at large teams

If Duke wins and all the G6 favorites win, more than like two of their champs are in

All the favorites in G6 Head Coaches are in until they lose then they take P4 jobs
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Correct. Duke isn't getting in unless there are major upsets with the G5 schools.

Put it this way, here are the current playoff odds:

North Texas is -135
Tulane is +115
James Madison is +130
Duke is +1500

North Texas plays Tulane in the AAC Championship on Friday night. North Texas is -2.5, that's why they're -135 to make the playoff and Tulane is +115. That is very likely a play-in game.

James Madison plays Troy in the Sun Belt Champ game on Friday night as well. They are a 22.5 point favorite. The reason they are +130 is because they need Duke to upset UVA to get in. If UVA wins, it'll be UVA (for sure) and likely the winner of North Texas/Tulane as the last 2 spots in.

If Duke wins, it'll be winner of North Texas/Tulane (for sure), and then almost certainly JMU as well, as they'll be higher ranked than Duke.

The only way Duke gets in is if they win and James Madison gets upset as a 22.5 point favorite.
 
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Yoyo423 said:
if Duke wins and isn't ranked, and the other G5 champ wins and isn't ranked, there's a chance an extra "at large" opens up..
the criteria says "5 highest ranked conference champs"
basically, what if there are only 4 ranked conference champs?

B1G
SEC
B12
American
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It's 5 champs
They don't have to be ranked in top 25
No getting around that
 
miamifan007 said:
I understand that but Pate's theory was that would help Miami get an "at large bid", assuming the CFP wouldn't want to leave out a P4 team.

It's just his theory.
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He thinks they would "***** over another team so ACC doesn't get shut out".

Not saying we don't deserve it more than bama and ND and especially OU
But don't think they would change what they do for the ACC
 
Doomsday scenario:

Duke wins; Duke is ranked below two 2 G5 teams. BYU beats TT close; Alabama beats UGA close. Then something like this occurs

1. OSU
2. Indiana
3. Bama
4. TT
5. BYU
6. Oregon
7. A&M
8. UGA
9. OU
10. Ole Miss
11. North Texas or Tulane
12. JMU

13. Miami
14. ND
15. Utah
16. Duke
17. UVA

Don’t expect this to happen but it’s the wildest scenario
 
cookies said:
Doomsday scenario:

Duke wins; Duke is ranked below two 2 G5 teams. BYU beats TT close; Alabama beats UGA close. Then something like this occurs

1. OSU
2. Indiana
3. Bama
4. TT
5. BYU
6. Oregon
7. A&M
8. UGA
9. OU
10. Ole Miss
11. North Texas or Tulane
12. JMU

13. Miami
14. ND
15. Utah
16. Duke
17. UVA

Don’t expect this to happen but it’s the wildest scenario
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If Miami isn't going to get in at all, then I hope this scenario occurs and ***** the entire ACC conference and J. Phillips.
 
cookies said:
My prediction is that North Texas will beat Tulane by 3 or more touchdowns. They didn’t play N Texas/USF/Navy in the regular season; barely beat South Alabama and had close games against ECU/Memphis/Army.

They got blown out by UTSA who was the best in conference offense they faced. They didn’t score 40 points once all season; North Texas did it 8 times and the other 4 games they scored 31/33/33/36.

Ok State and Auburn should feel good about their hires; UF and Arkansas just hired dudes who are suspect.
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Tulane did beat Duke though
 
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Steve Sarkisian on SEC This Morning:

"Is this about what your record is at the end, or is this about beating quality teams and showing how good of a team you really are by beating quality teams on the field."

"Or, is it, don't play good teams, put up a bunch of yards, put up a bunch of points, and make it look good. Throw fade route touchdowns with 38 seconds to go when you're ahead 31-7 so that the score looks better. So is the committee really watching the games, or are they just looking at a stat sheet at the end of the game to say 'Oh, well they won by this many points, they must've played really good."
 
TheOriginalCane said:
You are such a bull****ter.

Here is YOUR POST which I responded to. A post which uses the words "right about now", not "someday in the future".

View attachment 344773

There's no "wording shell game". That's what you did. For whatever reason, you thought that the LAWSUIT established some different set of rules for F$U. A "lowered exit fee", to quote your own post.

And you are WRONG about the ACC exit fee BEFORE the filing of F$U's lawsuit. The "Severe ACC Withdrawal Penalty" in 2023 was $130 million, as evidenced by F$U's statement in its legal filing:

View attachment 344775

The "realignment" thread is full of posts that I made documenting every step of this "exit fee" process. In short, it involved:

A. Pre-litigation exit fee of $130 M, plus what I believed (correctly) to be a speculative and unenforceable set of GOR damages that exceeded $400 million.

B. Post-litigation REMOVAL of the GOR.

C. Post-litigation INCREASE in the ACC exit fee from $130 M to $165 M.

D. EVENTUAL reduction of the exit fee.

I know that you're not going to admit this, but your glib and inaccurate posting involved Miami IMMEDIATELY availing itself of a non-existent preferential ACC exit fee accorded to F$U. All I said was that your post was not true, and was based on a misreading of headlines surrounding the legal settlement, rather than a full understanding of the amended ACC Constitution and By-Laws.

But, sure, keep trying to argue with me. Pay no attention to my dozens of posts in the Realignment thread that involve exit fees, GOR, and litigation. I'm just a "wind-bag who has no idea what he's talking about", right?

Bull****. I've been researching and commenting on these issues for years.

I'm sorry that you were wrong. I'm sorry that you posted what you posted. I'm sorry I had
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You're the one who needs to quit while you're behind. Your very first response to me was, "FSU does NOT have a 'lowered exit fee'. In fact, the exit fee went up for everyone." You said nothing about whether FSU was the only school to benefit from the settlement.

Now, I know you are going to try and play semantic games with the term "exit fee", but you know full well that the overall cost to leave the ACC has gone down, not up. Pre-litigation, the cost to leave was a $130 million exit fee plus the value of the media rights, which we will put at FSU's estimate of about $430 million. That's a total cost of $560 million to depart. Post-litigation, the cost to leave is $165 million, plus NO media rights. You do the math. In addition, the $165 million fee declines by $18 million a year until bottoming out at $75 million in 2030. You can try and be cute and describe the GOR as likely "unenforceable" so you can conveniently keep it out of your pre-litigation equation, but until the lawsuit was filed AND successfully settled, it existed, and it had to be paid.

Now, after I clearly demonstrated that the bottom line cost to a school to leave the ACC has been significantly lowered, you are trying to pretend that your original beef had to do with whether or not FSU alone received the benefit of the reduced exit costs, which I stated in my follow-up post that they did not. Who's the bull****ter again?

As for your snarky dismissal of any notion that Miami could "immediately" avail itself of a lower exit fee, well, ...you're wrong again. As I mentioned, there is now a "limited withdrawal" option for schools where they can remove one sport (which would obviously be football for us), while all other sports would remain in the ACC. If the school chose to do that, it would pay an exit fee of only $75 million and retain its media rights for the departing sport. We could always remove the rest of the sports at a later date, likely 2030-31.

See, if you had simply responded by saying something like, "Actually, the negotiated terms of the lawsuit will apply to all ACC teams, so everyone has a lower exit cost now", everything would have been fine. But you decided you were going to be a smart-aleck and play games over the term "exit fee": "Well, the actual 'exit fee' IS a little bit higher, ... just pay no attention to the fact that the $430 million dollar loss of media revenue doesn't exist anymore (wink, wink!). See what an intellectual I am, everybody?"

You picked this fight, not me.
 
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