MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

[cookies]

We’re not swapping with ND. Yall have to really stop this. ND is in the playoff. I said it in September, they are not leaving a 10-2 ND out. It’s not happening.

Forget notre dame. We need to get to 10. It’s never going to be Miami instead of ND. It’s going to be both of us, or only them.

Agree on both of us getting in; but nobody wants to consider the alternative: the committee putting us in above Bama. Since an extra win didn’t lift us up the last time; it’s fair to believe our mutual win over Free Shoes won’t even be discussed.

It’s very likely they stiff us two years in a row.

What’s scary is thinking about GT beating UGA and UGA still being ranked ahead of Bama lmao. Just gotta laugh at that point. Utah and BYU win out and it’ll be madness.

Our best chances depending upon 2 outta 3 of Cincy, Auburn, Miss State winning is dreadful. Would we even be ranked higher than a 10-2 Ole Miss? Cuz then they puff out their chessss about beating OU. So auburn and Cincy seem like the two most important.

Then rooting for VT against UVA + Pitt against GT; beating VT + GT ourselves. Cal over SMU; UL over SMU. Duke losing to UNC or Wake Forest. We’re back to funky scenarios when considering the ACC path. Feels like Im choosing a lottery-parley lmao.

 

[Canesq]

I think we jump Utah unless they absolutely hammer KSU and Kansas. BYU has a sneaky game vs Cincy. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee would evaluate Bama losing in the SECCG. There’s a pretty plausible scenario UGA plays Bama. If Bama loses that game, how does the committee view them? It killed us losing late in the year.

Not only losing but then Louisville and SMU decide to suck.

The Louisville loss ****es me off since you would think they would’ve won out and be ranked with the way they played us smh.

SMU ****es me off as that was a head coach loss. We don’t lose that game with an above average gameday coach.

 

[IndayArtHauz]

If the committee was smart they would put us in to avoid having the narrative that they’re biased and just let us shoot ourselves in the foot like we always do.

This is 301 level thinking and this committee is hoping they grade on a curve in 101.

 

[ssvir]

Moving up one spot puts us in the same tier as ND and the H2H becomes a factor. We are ranked where we are right now to avoid having to factor it in. But if it comes down to us or them, I think they know they would face too much backlash for not honoring the H2H.

 

[ssvir]

Some ESPN twats had a 5 minute discussion on Miami and we have an 11% chance and all they talked about was he had our chance on the field. Pretty amazing there will be 5-6 teams with 2+ losses in the playoffs but we're held to the standard of having to be undefeated

 

[1mg of Epi]

Don’t hold your breath. I’d be surprised if Rad even knows we have a game on Saturday.

Why do I get the feeling you’re right?

 

[Wake_Cane]

Thanks for doing this.

Question from an amateur statistician: why do none of the scenarios resolve to 100%? Are there more games that factor in that aren’t included on this chart?

Because I am only identifying the impact of each scenario on Miami's chances of advancing to the ACCCG. The gap between each combination's % and 100% reflects the possible scenarios that do not include us advancing.

 

[407cane]

But if we can jump BYU and Utah we’d be at 11. If OU does lose we’d get to 10. If we get idgaf about ND. We aren’t hosting a game unless we sneak into the ACCCG and absolutely hammer whoever we play.

I’m not sure how we jump Utah

There’s no reason to be behind them right now, they play two cupcakes so they won’t stumble

bYU looks good but could maybe lose to Cincy next week

The most likely thing to happen is Oklahoma losing one game which wouldn’t be enough for us

USC beating Oregon is probably bad for us

I don’t think bama loses to auburn

So it literally comes down to Oklahoma losing a game and hoping they BYU does and even then we’re 11 and not in unless they flip us and ND

 

[cookies]

Some ESPN twats had a 5 minute discussion on Miami and we have an 11% chance and all they talked about was he had our chance on the field. Pretty amazing there will be 5-6 teams with 2+ losses in the playoffs but we're held to the standard of having to be undefeated

They believe their models are omnipotent fortune tellers. Zero reason for us to be ranked below Bama and ND.

 

[cookies]

Utah and Houston both beat ASU. Is Houston’s 10 point loss against a likely .500 WVU team compared to Utah’s 3 point loss against BYU really worth ten spots of difference?

Houston and Utah lost by the same point differential to TT. I do believe that Utah is the better squad; but eye testing out a 10 rank difference is ridiculous given the information we know. Why is Houston punished for their bad loss way more than Texas or Bama? Rhetorical question ofc.


They cited margin of victory yet they don’t seem to care about margin of defeat at all.

 

[407cane]

We’re not swapping with ND. Yall have to really stop this. ND is in the playoff. I said it in September, they are not leaving a 10-2 ND out. It’s not happening.

Forget notre dame. We need to get to 10. It’s never going to be Miami instead of ND. It’s going to be both of us, or only them.

I’d normally agree with you

But his reasoning on tv tonight started a **** storm of positive sentiment for Miami.

Had they left ND behind bama like they should and put us at 13 and kept his mouth shut then they could have gotten away with it but they ****ed up

******** Miami is one thing but ******** bama in order to create separation from Miami will bite them and they are praying we lose

 

[TOcane]

How do you value a loss in which you weren’t even competitive just because it is on your schedule? So dumb.

 

[Calinative]

My actual "prediction" for this week is: (I don't think committee in general is putting 2 loss teams ahead of 1 loss teams. Even though I don't think oregon deserves to be rated so highly, they probably will. OU beating Bama really ****ed **** up cause it likely cemented Ole Miss as in, even with a loss. OU is almost certainly in now too. I think 1 of Oregon/USC will definitely be in. And you know the committee will do whatever they need to to keep Bama in. I think the committee will slowly move us up closer to meeting ND, and if at the end of the year we are both 10-2 we will jump them. Whether that gets us in is a different discussion....

1. Ohio St
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. UGA
5. Texas Tech
6. Ole Miss
7. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
9. Alabama
10. Notre Dame
11. BYU
12. Miami
13. Utah
14. USC
15. Vanderbilt
16. GTech
17. Michigan
18. Texas
19. Tennessee
20. Virginia
21. Missouri
22. Illinois
23. Houston
24. Pitt / Some Team from American / JMU

I was pretty close. Literally didn't miss by more than 1 spot for anyone... I accidentally listed no 21...

We really need Pitt to beat GTech this week to solidify them as a top 25 wins for when we play as that can be used to boost our metric above Utah. Once that happens we can clear ND imo.

I'm actually kinda shocked they had ND jump Bama though tbh, didn't think theyd do that.

If Oregon loses to USC it will get very interesting. Watch how the committee further uses that game as a way to push ND further past our "tier".lmao. what a joke. Again Ill say we want Oregon to beat USC and just solidify them as the 3rd and final B1G team (assuming Ohio St beats Michigan)

 

[C A N E]

We’re not swapping with ND. Yall have to really stop this. ND is in the playoff. I said it in September, they are not leaving a 10-2 ND out. It’s not happening.

Forget notre dame. We need to get to 10. It’s never going to be Miami instead of ND. It’s going to be both of us, or only them.

Bit of a bizarre soap box you’ve been on with this issue. It’s not going to stop. I welcome the growing media buzz and increasing talk about it on this board as should everyone else.

There’s nothing absolute or certain about 10-2 ND getting picked over 10-2 Miami this season by the committee’s own criteria and public admissions.

Week 13 rankings do not get evaluated the same way that end of season rankings do.

Mid season rankings take into account consistency issues as they’ve made clear with Miami and the likelihood they may play down to an opponent again and drop another game.

The calculus changes when the regular season ends and funnily enough, gauging Miami against playoff teams bodes more favorably than it does against lesser opposition.

We’ve got some dogs on this team and the national perception aligns with that viewpoint.

If Miami closes strong, we will be perceived as a potentially dangerous playoff team.

And it if comes down to Miami vs ND? We certainly have a chance to jump them in end of season rankings by the committee’s own eval criteria.

You can be as cynical about entrenched bias in favor of Notre Dame as much as you want. Does not mean it’s a settled matter and national buzz evidently reflects that sentiment.

The committee wanted more consistency from Miami and the working assumption here is Miami gives them that in the last 4 weeks of the season.

Strong resume at 10-2 where we beat Notre Dame head to head, started strong, closed strong, and had a couple of bumps in the road mid season against respectable football teams.

I will keep pointing at this sign. “Worse losses” midseason likely will not be weighted the same way during the regular season as opposed to the end of the regular season in the rankings.

 

[Glow]

,

They are all over the place

 

[Jassid82]

Like one poster said..the committee is praying certain teams start losing or have “ugly wins” to make this easier for them. Everybody gonna have a case to get in. But they are absolutely hoping we lose. You can bet that.

 

[scrantoncane]

Because I am only identifying the impact of each scenario on Miami's chances of advancing to the ACCCG. The gap between each combination's % and 100% reflects the possible scenarios that do not include us advancing.

Any chance you can run the script to see where we’ll stand if Pitt beats ga tec h (as if it were the first game of the week)? I think we all know our path is a Hail Mary if we lose that game. So I’m curious what those percentages look like it Pitt can take care of business.

 

[DREW!]

We’re not swapping with ND. Yall have to really stop this. ND is in the playoff. I said it in September, they are not leaving a 10-2 ND out. It’s not happening.

Forget notre dame. We need to get to 10. It’s never going to be Miami instead of ND. It’s going to be both of us, or only them.

If we get to 3 spots from them, H2H matters, its what they said, calm your Criscotits over there of course they are keeping us separated as long as they can, because they know they ****ed up here, its also good that ND didn't move at all, so we are 4 spots away, 1 more move upward, and its time for H2H, and if not, they are cooked as absolutely a fraudulent committee...the whole sports world knows this know, BTW, its all the socials are talking about, we got national people who give 0 ***** about us, tweeting and posting on social media that this is a great injustice that needs to be fixed.

 

[OldhamA]

Not only losing but then Louisville and SMU decide to suck.

The Louisville loss ****es me off since you would think they would’ve won out and be ranked with the way they played us smh.

SMU ****es me off as that was a head coach loss. We don’t lose that game with an above average gameday coach.

Which Head Coach is overcoming that level of biased refereeing?

Asking for a friend.

 

[OldhamA]

Some ESPN twats had a 5 minute discussion on Miami and we have an 11% chance and all they talked about was he had our chance on the field. Pretty amazing there will be 5-6 teams with 2+ losses in the playoffs but we're held to the standard of having to be undefeated

Exactly. If losing to an ACC game is such a backbreaker, why are ND and Alabama still hanging around?