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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

ssvir said:
Some ESPN twats had a 5 minute discussion on Miami and we have an 11% chance and all they talked about was he had our chance on the field. Pretty amazing there will be 5-6 teams with 2+ losses in the playoffs but we're held to the standard of having to be undefeated
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Exactly. If losing to an ACC game is such a backbreaker, why are ND and Alabama still hanging around?
 
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407cane said:
I’m not sure how we jump Utah

There’s no reason to be behind them right now, they play two cupcakes so they won’t stumble

bYU looks good but could maybe lose to Cincy next week

The most likely thing to happen is Oklahoma losing one game which wouldn’t be enough for us

USC beating Oregon is probably bad for us

I don’t think bama loses to auburn

So it literally comes down to Oklahoma losing a game and hoping they BYU does and even then we’re 11 and not in unless they flip us and ND
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At 11, or 12, H2H comes into play, then they flip us.
 
scrantoncane said:
Any chance you can run the script to see where we’ll stand if Pitt beats ga tec h (as if it were the first game of the week)? I think we all know our path is a Hail Mary if we lose that game. So I’m curious what those percentages look like it Pitt can take care of business.
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There are 512 combinations of final standings possible once GT and Pitt have played. If GT wins, we advance to the ACCCG in 0 of those scenarios. If Pitt wins, we advance to ACCCG in 286 of them. So GT wins = We are done for the ACCCG, Pitt wins = we advance in 56% of the remaining scenarios.

Keep in mind my script locks Miami winning for both of our remaining games, because it reduces the # of scenarios that need to be computed and we know we're toast if we don't win out anyway.
 
cookies said:
Agree on both of us getting in; but nobody wants to consider the alternative: the committee putting us in above Bama. Since an extra win didn’t lift us up the last time; it’s fair to believe our mutual win over Free Shoes won’t even be discussed.

It’s very likely they stiff us two years in a row.

What’s scary is thinking about GT beating UGA and UGA still being ranked ahead of Bama lmao. Just gotta laugh at that point. Utah and BYU win out and it’ll be madness.

Our best chances depending upon 2 outta 3 of Cincy, Auburn, Miss State winning is dreadful. Would we even be ranked higher than a 10-2 Ole Miss? Cuz then they puff out their chessss about beating OU. So auburn and Cincy seem like the two most important.

Then rooting for VT against UVA + Pitt against GT; beating VT + GT ourselves. Cal over SMU; UL over SMU. Duke losing to UNC or Wake Forest. We’re back to funky scenarios when considering the ACC path. Feels like Im choosing a lottery-parley lmao.
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Bama getting in at 10-2. They currently have 4 wins against current CFP top 25 teams and that’s probably not going to change. That’s more than enough for the committee to keep them in as long as they win out, no matter what we do.
 
407cane said:
but if they move ND to 8 we're still screwed

they apparently only compare teams 9-12

we need to swap with ND or get to 10

if ND is 8 and we're 12 we won't be compared and we we're out. if ND is 9 and we're 12, then what? idk
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You originally said we can get to 11 by jumping Utah and BYU. You then asked, how do we get to 10 and I said, Oklahoma losing 1 of their 2 games. ND is not involved in that scenario and we would be at 10.
 
Miami doesn't just have to win out, they need to pass the eye test doing it. They need to keep the offense wide open, start fast and don't take the foot off the gas. They do that, they're in. Miami is always good for ratings.
 
407cane said:
They evaluate teams 9-12

Which is why they put ND above bama

If Oklahoma loses guess who’s now number 8 and doesn’t get compared to Miami?
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If we get to 10, we don't need to be compared with ND because we would be in. 11 would be the ACC championship winner and 12 would be Tulane (as of now). We would be in at 10 and we would play Rd 1 at 7.

Root for Cincinnati on Saturday, and let's hope Oklahoma drops one to either Mizzou or LSU. There's another scenario that involves Oregon beating USC, and losing at UW. I'm at the point that I just want to see us win out and we'll see what happens with the rest of the chaos
 
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Yeah we are pretty much out unless we get some breaks this weekend and next. We certainly don’t control our own destiny.

‘You don’t say? With an order like that, the committee’s job seems moot if that’s all they’re going to consider.

Just when it looked like Miami fans could start to get their hopes up and ponder a world where they climbed high enough to be an at-large choice, they were dashed on Tuesday night.

Maybe the Hurricanes should have just lost to Notre Dame because it doesn’t appear it would have made much of a difference when good losses trump great wins.’

www.si.com

Why Miami’s Win Over Notre Dame Means Nothing to a CFP Committee Obsessed With Losses

The rankings reveal a clear trend that the selection committee is rewarding who you lost to, not who you defeated and the Hurricanes are paying the price.
www.si.com www.si.com
 
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Miami needs to be lobbying harder. They should be paying people like pate and pat mcafee to trash the committee for the egregious rankings and their rationale for it. We’re valuing losses?! Wtf are we talking about
 
deezydinh said:
Miami needs to be lobbying harder. They should be paying people like pate and pat mcafee to trash the committee for the egregious rankings and their rationale for it. We’re valuing losses?! Wtf are we talking about
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If ND and Miami each had two losses to teams not in common, there would be more value to the argument than current reality: one of ND's losses is to...Miami! Really hilarious stuff.
 
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cookies said:
Not good to boast after back to back losses. Best thing we have going for us is there is a genuine wider outrage, from non-Miami fans, heating up
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Who’s talking about boasting? I’m talking about him just doing his actual job and representing his university. It’s bad enough that he still lives in South Carolina, and seems to want to have nothing to do with anything other than real estate. I don’t think it’s too much to ask that our AD work on the PR a bit.

Look who the Committee is made up of - it’s ADs of our peer schools. We’re in here complaining about Utah being put ahead of us, well guess what? Utah’s AD is the Committee Chairman. You think these people are swayed by fans, or do you think they might listen more to their fellow ADs, such as Dan?

Again, I don’t think it’s too much to ask him to do his job. For once.
 
C A N E said:
Bit of a bizarre soap box you’ve been on with this issue. It’s not going to stop. I welcome the growing media buzz and increasing talk about it on this board as should everyone else.

There’s nothing absolute or certain about 10-2 ND getting picked over 10-2 Miami this season by the committee’s own criteria and public admissions.

Week 13 rankings do not get evaluated the same way that end of season rankings do.

Mid season rankings take into account consistency issues as they’ve made clear with Miami and the likelihood they may play down to an opponent again and drop another game.

The calculus changes when the regular season ends and funnily enough, gauging Miami against playoff teams bodes more favorably than it does against lesser opposition.

We’ve got some dogs on this team and the national perception aligns with that viewpoint.

If Miami closes strong, we will be perceived as a potentially dangerous playoff team.

And it if comes down to Miami vs ND? We certainly have a chance to jump them in end of season rankings by the committee’s own eval criteria.

You can be as cynical about entrenched bias in favor of Notre Dame as much as you want. Does not mean it’s a settled matter and national buzz evidently reflects that sentiment.

The committee wanted more consistency from Miami and the working assumption here is Miami gives them that in the last 4 weeks of the season.

Strong resume at 10-2 where we beat Notre Dame head to head, started strong, closed strong, and had a couple of bumps in the road mid season against respectable football teams.

I will keep pointing at this sign. “Worse losses” midseason likely will not be weighted the same way during the regular season as opposed to the end of the regular season in the rankings.
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I agree with every word you wrote. The reason I keep saying what I'm saying is because, none of this matters. I agree with you. But the committee does not, and they will not, because the team you're comparing us with is Notre Dame. This is a television show. What you wrote is an incredibly smart and well thought out post, but you laid it out like you're trying to prove your case in court. What we're dealing with isn't a courtroom, where cases are laid out logically and ruled on fairly (usually). We're dealing with corruption. We're dealing with bias. We're dealing with politics.

If you want to tell me I'm an idiot and a conspiracy theorist and once Miami gets close, the committee will push us in and push ND out, fine. I think you're insane if you believe that, but hey, let's all have hope.

If you do want to hang your hat on one thing, when I looked on Sunday, Draftkings had ND as a -4000 favorite to make the playoffs. Meaning, if you want to win $100 on ND to make the playoffs, you had to risk $4000 (LOL). This morning, it's down to -2500. So, still a comical favorite, but I think the books are at least recognizing there's a 0.000001% chance that the screaming from every rational/sane human on Earth might actually make its way into the committee room. I say no chance, but we'll see.
 
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