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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

Wake_Cane said:
Updated my Python script to include last week's results. As it stands right now if we win out we make the ACCCG in 25% of the remaining scenarios. I've included how those #s change based on results of other games and combination of games. Clear themes emerging.
View attachment 343224
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Thanks for doing this.

Question from an amateur statistician: why do none of the scenarios resolve to 100%? Are there more games that factor in that aren’t included on this chart?
 
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Truth be told. If the committee really wanted to ***** us or show they dont believe in us, theyd rank us in the Top 10 and put the pressure on us to win out, which none of us are supremely confident of given our HC.
 
So ..Roddy Jones just said, " I'm fascinated by what happens to Miami tonight..because, here's what I think could happen ...1st off, Miamis momentum, last week, they passed GT, despite being on a BYE, GT was at 16, Miami at 15, then Miami went and absolutely boat raced the team that just beat GT, so now there's a common opponents, GT loses, Miami Blitzes em...wasn't competitive, blah blah etc etc, leads to his next point...how far do you think Texas Falls?

Let's just assume Texas slide stops at Vanderbilt (that's 14 btw) well Texas and Miami have a common opponent in Florida, obviously Miami beat them, Texas lost to them, so in theory you could have Miami above Vanderbilt and Texas, then you start getting into the Utah/BYU conversation of it all, and this is where Miami starts to pick up momentum, I think in that room with the CFP committee, because when I look at the resumes of BYU/Utah/Miami ..your gonna have a hard time telling me, that based on the last 2 weeks, based on the EYE TEST that Utah/BYU are definitely better than Miami, especially if you couple that with what we saw early on from Miami, doesn't think we pass BYU/Utah, that would be to much of a jump, but if Miami keeps passing the Eye test, they will Jump BYU and Utah eventually, THEN......The HEAD TO HEAD against ND will matter, and if we jump BYU/Utah and that happens, then we will jump ND.

Obviously said we need to win, win convincingly and look good doing it.

So....its fixing to be real interesting tonight fellas...this will tell us if the CFP is really full of ****!

We need #13 tonight!
 
Idk why USC jumping us would be a surprise. I don't think it's gonna happen though. Mostly because I think what SHOULD HAPPEN is Us And USC both jump Utah and Vanderbilt. Pretty simple. Vanderbilts two losses BOTH just got way worse than they previously were. And they have no great wins. USC is mostly irrelevant where they are ranked because ultimately if they beat Oregon they are in no matter what. Same can be said about Michigan with Ohio State. It truly doesn't matter. UTah truly has no business being ranked that high by their Wins and Losses AND the team the committee put into top 25 in order to give Utah their good win just lost...

However where the committee has us in relation to Utah and Vandy right now imo does matter. I think slowly the committee is inching us closer to Notre Dame and then by the end of the season if we end it by winning out we will jump ND regardless what ND does.

Secondly we really want Pitt to beat GTech so they reappear in top 25 to end season.
 
Calinative said:
Idk why USC jumping us would be a surprise. I don't think it's gonna happen though. Mostly because I think what SHOULD HAPPEN is Us And USC both jump Utah and Vanderbilt. Pretty simple. Vanderbilts two losses BOTH just got way worse than they previously were. And they have no great wins. USC is mostly irrelevant where they are ranked because ultimately if they beat Oregon they are in no matter what. Same can be said about Michigan with Ohio State. It truly doesn't matter. UTah truly has no business being ranked that high by their Wins and Losses AND the team the committee put into top 25 in order to give Utah their good win just lost...

However where the committee has us in relation to Utah and Vandy right now imo does matter. I think slowly the committee is inching us closer to Notre Dame and then by the end of the season if we end it by winning out we will jump ND regardless what ND does.

Secondly we really want Pitt to beat GTech so they reappear in top 25 to end season.
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I would love that to be the case, but i would be absolutely shocked if we jump ND at any point. Fix is in.
 
DREW! said:
So ..Roddy Jones just said, " I'm fascinated by what happens to Miami tonight..because, here's what I think could happen ...1st off, Miamis momentum, last week, they passed GT, despite being on a BYE, GT was at 16, Miami at 15, then Miami went and absolutely boat raced the team that just beat GT, so now there's a common opponents, GT loses, Miami Blitzes em...wasn't competitive, blah blah etc etc, leads to his next point...how far do you think Texas Falls?

Let's just assume Texas slide stops at Vanderbilt (that's 14 btw) well Texas and Miami have a common opponent in Florida, obviously Miami beat them, Texas lost to them, so in theory you could have Miami above Vanderbilt and Texas, then you start getting into the Utah/BYU conversation of it all, and this is where Miami starts to pick up momentum, I think in that room with the CFP committee, because when I look at the resumes of BYU/Utah/Miami ..your gonna have a hard time telling me, that based on the last 2 weeks, based on the EYE TEST that Utah/BYU are definitely better than Miami, especially if you couple that with what we saw early on from Miami, doesn't think we pass BYU/Utah, that would be to much of a jump, but if Miami keeps passing the Eye test, they will Jump BYU and Utah eventually, THEN......The HEAD TO HEAD against ND will matter, and if we jump BYU/Utah and that happens, then we will jump ND.

Obviously said we need to win, win convincingly and look good doing it.

So....its fixing to be real interesting tonight fellas...this will tell us if the CFP is really full of ****!

We need #13 tonight!
Click to expand...
I think BYU stays ahead of us this week but we jump Utah, Vandy and Texas.

We will stay a couple spots away from ND so they don't have to have us Jump ND until we win out and beat Pitt to prove it.

From there I think we will firmly be right ahead of ND, but it'll be at large and still Oregon and USC could get in over us (both us and ND tbh) as could Michigan, UTenn possibly, etc...

But if we make the ACCCG and win it we will move quite high up imo. Probably clear Oregon/USC and 4th SEC team. Probably stay behind TTU as B12 champ tho
 
I’m so tired of the ND debate where people bring up bad losses. Why is TT 6 spots ahead of BYU then? TT lost to ASU, TT beat BYU. Shouldn’t BYU’s 1 loss, that’s a “good loss”, put them above TT then? Why did they put TT 6 spots ahead of BYU due to head to head, but put us 6 spots behind ND in the same situation?
 
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Calinative said:
I think BYU stays ahead of us this week but we jump Utah, Vandy and Texas.

We will stay a couple spots away from ND so they don't have to have us Jump ND until we win out and beat Pitt to prove it.

From there I think we will firmly be right ahead of ND, but it'll be at large and still Oregon and USC could get in over us (both us and ND tbh) as could Michigan, UTenn possibly, etc...

But if we make the ACCCG and win it we will move quite high up imo. Probably clear Oregon/USC and 4th SEC team. Probably stay behind TTU as B12 champ tho
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Agree with most of what you said except for Tennessee. Tennessee not getting in over us with 3 losses. They aren’t Alabama or Texas who the committee would bend over backwards for. Tennessee lost to bad teams and don’t have big wins
 
DREW! said:
So ..Roddy Jones just said, " I'm fascinated by what happens to Miami tonight..because, here's what I think could happen ...1st off, Miamis momentum, last week, they passed GT, despite being on a BYE, GT was at 16, Miami at 15, then Miami went and absolutely boat raced the team that just beat GT, so now there's a common opponents, GT loses, Miami Blitzes em...wasn't competitive, blah blah etc etc, leads to his next point...how far do you think Texas Falls?

Let's just assume Texas slide stops at Vanderbilt (that's 14 btw) well Texas and Miami have a common opponent in Florida, obviously Miami beat them, Texas lost to them, so in theory you could have Miami above Vanderbilt and Texas, then you start getting into the Utah/BYU conversation of it all, and this is where Miami starts to pick up momentum, I think in that room with the CFP committee, because when I look at the resumes of BYU/Utah/Miami ..your gonna have a hard time telling me, that based on the last 2 weeks, based on the EYE TEST that Utah/BYU are definitely better than Miami, especially if you couple that with what we saw early on from Miami, doesn't think we pass BYU/Utah, that would be to much of a jump, but if Miami keeps passing the Eye test, they will Jump BYU and Utah eventually, THEN......The HEAD TO HEAD against ND will matter, and if we jump BYU/Utah and that happens, then we will jump ND.

Obviously said we need to win, win convincingly and look good doing it.

So....its fixing to be real interesting tonight fellas...this will tell us if the CFP is really full of ****!

We need #13 tonight!
Click to expand...
I bet we get #12 tonight.
 
Calinative said:
I think BYU stays ahead of us this week but we jump Utah, Vandy and Texas.

We will stay a couple spots away from ND so they don't have to have us Jump ND until we win out and beat Pitt to prove it.

From there I think we will firmly be right ahead of ND, but it'll be at large and still Oregon and USC could get in over us (both us and ND tbh) as could Michigan, UTenn possibly, etc...

But if we make the ACCCG and win it we will move quite high up imo. Probably clear Oregon/USC and 4th SEC team. Probably stay behind TTU as B12 champ tho
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I think you just nailed it. As long as they keep ND at least 3 spots ahead of us, they won't have to deal with the head to head argument yet.
 
JD4 said:
Agree with most of what you said except for Tennessee. Tennessee not getting in over us with 3 losses. They aren’t Alabama or Texas who the committee would bend over backwards for. Tennessee lost to bad teams and don’t have big wins
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I likely, but f it comes down to an At Large spot they could jump us by beating Vandy. Not nearly as much of a guarantee as if Michigan beat Ohio St...

I do agree though they likely aren't in over Bama or OU... But I would not be shocked to see SEC get like 5.

But obviously the easiest path to that is Vandy Beating UTenn. So we absolutely would want UTenn to win that game. Let's just have UTenn and Vandy lose to Florida and Kentucky this week....
 
We’ll move up 1 spot due to Texas losing. Assuming we jump Utah and Vandy is wishful thinking. The real question is whether or not ND is ranked ahead of OU and Bama.

Maybe all the talking heads finally saying Miami should be in over ND sways the committee to have ND behind those two so they’re still technically in striking distance. But I just won’t believe it until I see it.
 
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Calinative said:
Idk why USC jumping us would be a surprise. I don't think it's gonna happen though. Mostly because I think what SHOULD HAPPEN is Us And USC both jump Utah and Vanderbilt. Pretty simple. Vanderbilts two losses BOTH just got way worse than they previously were. And they have no great wins. USC is mostly irrelevant where they are ranked because ultimately if they beat Oregon they are in no matter what. Same can be said about Michigan with Ohio State. It truly doesn't matter. UTah truly has no business being ranked that high by their Wins and Losses AND the team the committee put into top 25 in order to give Utah their good win just lost...

However where the committee has us in relation to Utah and Vandy right now imo does matter. I think slowly the committee is inching us closer to Notre Dame and then by the end of the season if we end it by winning out we will jump ND regardless what ND does.

Secondly we really want Pitt to beat GTech so they reappear in top 25 to end season.
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USC jumping us would 100% be a major surprise and make no sense. Currently we each have 1 T25 win. There’s to a what seems to be mediocre Michigan team and us ND obviously. If there’s no H2H factor they go to common opponents. Which would be ND. You can’t make a single argument other than their losses are “better”. Barely beating Iowa who traveled to LA should not warrant them jumping us. If it does scrap the whole **** system because none of it makes sense.
 
NC_Canes_11 said:
We’ll move up 1 spot due to Texas losing. Assuming we jump Utah and Vandy is wishful thinking. The real question is whether or not ND is ranked ahead of OU and Bama.

Maybe all the talking heads finally saying Miami should be in over ND sways the committee to have ND behind those two so they’re still technically in striking distance. But I just won’t believe it until I see it.
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Them not playing and Texas falling I could see Vandy sliding two spots. We jump them and Texas knocks them down. I won’t be surprised at all to see Vandy behind Texas. 13 us 14 Texas 15 Vandy. That wouldn’t shock me at all.
 
SCarolina Ibis said:
I think you just nailed it. As long as they keep ND at least 3 spots ahead of us, they won't have to deal with the head to head argument yet.
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I don't think they ever will. They don't want to because it means they will have to do the same for other hth matchups. If they put both teams in - whether it's at 10 & 11 or 11 & 12 or even 9 & 11- they won't address it.

Dropping Miami to #18 is what caused all the issues. If they had started higher - even at #15- it would make a difference
 
Look at the hack job ESPN is putting out there. It’s every article now. Here they are celebrating the Top 20 CFB Freshman, #1 of which is Toney. Even so, they still can’t help but put us down for our two losses. Apparently, our last two games, both of which were blowout wins, don’t count.

One of the youngest players in the country, Toney reclassified into Miami's 2025 class and wasted no time proving he was undervalued as a three-star recruit. Even as the Hurricanes' season has teetered following losses to Louisville and SMU, Toney has remained solid, leading all freshman receivers in snaps, targets and receptions (59) through 10 games.

www.espn.com

Where college football's top 20 freshmen rank after two months

With the season nearly over, many freshmen have become established stars. Here's how they stack up.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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