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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

The amount of confidence D$ has that if we win out we get in as an at large is making me want to believe again. I just expect bad things always
 
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305407cane said:
Is that even if they lose to tech?
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Tie breaker only applies if they lose to tech. If they win, they’re 7-1 in conference and we’re 6-2.

GT has to lose to Pitt or there’s no path for us. If they lose, Virginia can win but we need help with SMU/Duke.
 
Big news that, at least I didn’t know about, Michigan’s RB1 Justice Haynes is out for the year. Their RB2 is playing well tho; their RB3 is averaging 2 ypc less than the RB2 though.
 
IF, and it's a big IF, we take care of business the next two games, it is absolutely indefensible to be left out while Notre Dame gets in ahead of us. Miami fans should riot.
 
Notre Dame is getting rewarded for winning 10 straight and having “good losses.”

Not sure what the excuse for Vandy, BYU, Oklahoma and especially Utah.

Optics matter. How we win these last 2 games matter.

Aside from terrible coaching during our 2 losses, if we win out and not get in, you can blame Mr. Cristobal for the way we finished vs Notre Dame and FSU.

We blow out FSU the way it was until Q4, blow out UF the way we were supposed to (that blown whistle ****ed us), but you ESPECIALLY blow out ND when we were blowing them out instead of going conservative, those things absolutely matter.

The max Miami can ever lose in this conference is 1 game.

Thats it!!

So if your going to lose two stupid games, then you better blow out everyone else just to have a chance at being considered.
 
cookies said:
Big news that, at least I didn’t know about, Michigan’s RB1 Justice Haynes is out for the year. Their RB2 is playing well tho; their RB3 is averaging 2 ypc less than the RB2 though.
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who gives a flying @#$@# ?

what the @#$@# does this have to do with the thread of Miami getting into the playoffs?
 
Category 6 said:

Miami Herald just broke down our slim path to the ACC Championship (the only surefire way to lock a playoff spot). I crunched ESPN's FPI odds on those games: 7.35% chance we make it. Yikes. Miami controls its destiny... but barely. That SMU loss? Straight malpractice. Tough road ahead, Canes fans.

Miami’s Only Realistic Path​

Miami (currently 8-2, 6-0 in ACC) has to do ALL of these thing

  1. Win their last 2 game
    • Nov 22 @ Virginia Tech → very likely (90%)
    • Nov 29 @ Pittsburgh → pretty likely (73%) → If they win both → Miami finishes 10-2 (8-0 in ACC)
  2. Pittsburgh has to beat Georgia Tech this week (Nov 22
    • Pitt only has a 43% chance
    • Why it matters: If Georgia Tech wins, they go to 7-1 in ACC and Miami is eliminated no matter what.
  3. SMU (currently also unbeaten in ACC) has to lose at least one of their last two game
    • vs Louisville (SMU is favored, only 32% chance they lose)
    • @ California (SMU is favored, only 20% chance they lose) → Chance SMU loses at least one → about 46%
  4. One last little thing: some tiebreaker help Basically, either Virginia Tech beats Virginia this week (19% chance) OR Duke loses to UNC or Wake Forest in the next two weeks (47% chance). → Combined chance this happens → about 57%

Putting It All Together (Like a Parlay)​

Think of it like a 4-leg parlay you’d bet on:


What Has to HappenRough ChanceRunning Total So Far
Miami wins both games65%65%
× Pitt beats Georgia Tech× 43%28%
× SMU loses at least once× 46%13%
× Tiebreaker help happens× 57%≈ 7.4%

Final chance Miami actually makes the ACC Championship: about 1 in 13.5 (roughly 7.4%).

In Summary​


Miami is in control of their own destiny… but barely. Pittsburgh has to upset Georgia Tech this week. Right now it’s only about a 1-in-14 shot that everything falls exactly the way Miami needs it to.
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Think our chances are better then 7.4%.

Duke has not looked good lately and could easily lose to both NC and WF. WF beat SMU, Virginia, and lost to GT by one point.

Louisville, as we know plays tough, and Cal has a really good QB. They just beat Louisville, on the road.

The big problem is Pitt beating GT. Short of kidnapping Haynes King, Pitt needs their freshmen QB to have a really good game.
 
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PIPO said:
Notre Dame is getting rewarded for winning 10 straight and having “good losses.”

Not sure what the excuse for Vandy, BYU, Oklahoma and especially Utah.

Optics matter. How we win these last 2 games matter.

Aside from terrible coaching during our 2 losses, if we win out and not get in, you can blame Mr. Cristobal for the way we finished vs Notre Dame and FSU.

We blow out FSU the way it was until Q4, blow out UF the way we were supposed to (that blown whistle ****ed us), but you ESPECIALLY blow out ND when we were blowing them out instead of going conservative, those things absolutely matter.

The max Miami can ever lose in this conference is 1 game.

Thats it!!

So if your going to lose two stupid games, then you better blow out everyone else just to have a chance at being considered.
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If we win out and still don’t make it in, 99% of my frustration will be directed at the College Football Playoff Committee. Instead of blaming Cristobal, I’ll give Cristobal credit for beating the team that got in ahead of us, despite their extremely soft schedule.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Head-to-head comes into play WHEN ALL TIED TEAMS have played each other (assuming more than 2 teams are tied). You cannot use head-to-head selectively, without the possibility that A beat B, B beat C, but then C beat A. You'd be locked in an endless logic loop.

Just to use some math extremes...

When you are breaking a simple 2-team tie, then head-to-head is EASY.

Buf if you have a 4-way tie or a 5-way tie in a huge conference, your chances of having head-to-heads (and/or common opponents among all teams tied) declines.

In other words, the chaos of having a LOT of teams tied...favors Miami. But when you have a clearcut "#1 team" (i.e., GaTech being the only, or one out of 2 teams, with only 1 loss), then this disfavors Miami.

In even shorter words, if GaTech wins, Miami has no shot at the ACC-CG.
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Wrong
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Head-to-head comes into play WHEN ALL TIED TEAMS have played each other (assuming more than 2 teams are tied). You cannot use head-to-head selectively, without the possibility that A beat B, B beat C, but then C beat A. You'd be locked in an endless logic loop.

Just to use some math extremes...

When you are breaking a simple 2-team tie, then head-to-head is EASY.

Buf if you have a 4-way tie or a 5-way tie in a huge conference, your chances of having head-to-heads (and/or common opponents among all teams tied) declines.

In other words, the chaos of having a LOT of teams tied...favors Miami. But when you have a clearcut "#1 team" (i.e., GaTech being the only, or one out of 2 teams, with only 1 loss), then this disfavors Miami.

In even shorter words, if GaTech wins, Miami has no shot at the ACC-CG.
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The calculations I ran showed Miami could still make it if Virginia Tech beats Virginia.
 
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Category 6 said:

Miami Herald just broke down our slim path to the ACC Championship (the only surefire way to lock a playoff spot). I crunched ESPN's FPI odds on those games: 7.35% chance we make it. Yikes. Miami controls its destiny... but barely. That SMU loss? Straight malpractice. Tough road ahead, Canes fans.

Miami’s Only Realistic Path​

Miami (currently 8-2, 6-0 in ACC) has to do ALL of these thing

  1. Win their last 2 game
    • Nov 22 @ Virginia Tech → very likely (90%)
    • Nov 29 @ Pittsburgh → pretty likely (73%) → If they win both → Miami finishes 10-2 (8-0 in ACC)
  2. Pittsburgh has to beat Georgia Tech this week (Nov 22
    • Pitt only has a 43% chance
    • Why it matters: If Georgia Tech wins, they go to 7-1 in ACC and Miami is eliminated no matter what.
  3. SMU (currently also unbeaten in ACC) has to lose at least one of their last two game
    • vs Louisville (SMU is favored, only 32% chance they lose)
    • @ California (SMU is favored, only 20% chance they lose) → Chance SMU loses at least one → about 46%
  4. One last little thing: some tiebreaker help Basically, either Virginia Tech beats Virginia this week (19% chance) OR Duke loses to UNC or Wake Forest in the next two weeks (47% chance). → Combined chance this happens → about 57%

Putting It All Together (Like a Parlay)​

Think of it like a 4-leg parlay you’d bet on:


What Has to HappenRough ChanceRunning Total So Far
Miami wins both games65%65%
× Pitt beats Georgia Tech× 43%28%
× SMU loses at least once× 46%13%
× Tiebreaker help happens× 57%≈ 7.4%

Final chance Miami actually makes the ACC Championship: about 1 in 13.5 (roughly 7.4%).

In Summary​


Miami is in control of their own destiny… but barely. Pittsburgh has to upset Georgia Tech this week. Right now it’s only about a 1-in-14 shot that everything falls exactly the way Miami needs it to.
Click to expand...
Why do you keep saying "Miami is in control of their own destiny" if things other than just winning their remaining games NEED to occur, how does Miami control their own destiny?
 
Go Canes!! said:
We don’t need to make it to be in the playoff.

Just throttle VT and Pitt and we’ll be in.
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Agree.

Know it’s tough to grasp but there’s a lot of football including rivalry games those we are jockeying with are playing.

If Pitt gets by Tech this weekend and we win out, it’s a very good resume. FSU and UF may be mediocre, but it’s far more compelling than some of the other mediocre teams in others’ schedules, especially considering where FSU was when we handled them just weeks after beating down Bama. A win over ND and a top 20 Pitt team should they handle business and 4 wins to close the season will do it ACCCG or not.
 
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