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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

Category 6 said:

Miami Herald just broke down our slim path to the ACC Championship (the only surefire way to lock a playoff spot). I crunched ESPN's FPI odds on those games: 7.35% chance we make it. Yikes. Miami controls its destiny... but barely. That SMU loss? Straight malpractice. Tough road ahead, Canes fans.

Miami’s Only Realistic Path​

Miami (currently 8-2, 6-0 in ACC) has to do ALL of these thing

  1. Win their last 2 game
    • Nov 22 @ Virginia Tech → very likely (90%)
    • Nov 29 @ Pittsburgh → pretty likely (73%) → If they win both → Miami finishes 10-2 (8-0 in ACC)
  2. Pittsburgh has to beat Georgia Tech this week (Nov 22
    • Pitt only has a 43% chance
    • Why it matters: If Georgia Tech wins, they go to 7-1 in ACC and Miami is eliminated no matter what.
  3. SMU (currently also unbeaten in ACC) has to lose at least one of their last two game
    • vs Louisville (SMU is favored, only 32% chance they lose)
    • @ California (SMU is favored, only 20% chance they lose) → Chance SMU loses at least one → about 46%
  4. One last little thing: some tiebreaker help Basically, either Virginia Tech beats Virginia this week (19% chance) OR Duke loses to UNC or Wake Forest in the next two weeks (47% chance). → Combined chance this happens → about 57%

Putting It All Together (Like a Parlay)​

Think of it like a 4-leg parlay you’d bet on:


What Has to HappenRough ChanceRunning Total So Far
Miami wins both games65%65%
× Pitt beats Georgia Tech× 43%28%
× SMU loses at least once× 46%13%
× Tiebreaker help happens× 57%≈ 7.4%

Final chance Miami actually makes the ACC Championship: about 1 in 13.5 (roughly 7.4%).

In Summary​


Miami is in control of their own destiny… but barely. Pittsburgh has to upset Georgia Tech this week. Right now it’s only about a 1-in-14 shot that everything falls exactly the way Miami needs it to.
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  1. SMU (currently also unbeaten in ACC) has to lose at least one of their last two game
    • vs Louisville (SMU is favored, only 32% chance they lose)
    • @ California (SMU is favored, only 20% chance they lose) → Chance SMU loses at least one → about 46%
SMU is not unbeaten in the ACC. They lost to Wake.
 
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CanesNation26 said:
If we win out and still don’t make it in, 99% of my frustration will be directed at the College Football Playoff Committee. Instead of blaming Cristobal, I’ll give Cristobal credit for beating the team that got in ahead of us, despite their extremely soft schedule.
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I agree, no doubt.

But Mario didn’t help us there.

Also if we don’t get in, take ND off the schedule.

It only serves them as an independent. Not us because basically they are telling us, at worst make it to the conference championship or only lose 1 game at most or else.

They don’t respect the ACC. They actually respect the Big 12 more.

Also must stop with Automatic bid for G5. That’s a throw away easy game for whomever plays them in the first round.
 
LeanMeanOrangeGreen said:
If the CFP committee has any integrity or legitimacy they will move us above Vandy, who has ZERO business being anywhere near the top 10. If this is truly about “getting the best 12 teams in the CFP” like they’ve claimed, move their asses out.
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It’s just so hard to know what these mfs will do. We’re two weeks removed from back to back losses; but there really is no reason we should need one or two more wins for a jump into the top ten. VT is below .500 and last year they used that as the marker to delineate between us and Alabama. A road pitt win shouldn’t count more than a H2H win.

PRINCIPLES​

The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.
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If they follow their own rules; we should be ahead of Notre Dame and Bama. Anything else is voodoo vibes.

ESPN; Aug 2025: In the current schedule strength metric, more weight will now be applied to games against strong opponents. A new, added metric of "record strength" will help the committee determine how teams performed against their schedule, rewarding those that beat high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty of losing to one. These changes will also provide minimal reward for beating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to one.
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The math is clear.

There’s really no reason for us to jump Vandy except that we should already be ahead of them and Utah; and BYU. Im expecting a jump but I’d be stunned if we are above Bama.
 
cookies said:
It’s just so hard to know what these mfs will do. We’re two weeks removed from back to back losses; but there really is no reason we should need one or two more wins for a jump into the top ten. VT is below .500 and last year they used that as the marker to delineate between us and Alabama. A road pitt win shouldn’t count more than a H2H win.



If they follow their own rules; we should be ahead of Notre Dame and Bama. Anything else is voodoo vibes.


The math is clear.

There’s really no reason for us to jump Vandy except that we should already be ahead of them and Utah; and BYU. Im expecting a jump but I’d be stunned if we are above Bama.
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We have a better resume than vandy
They had an extra win
With same record we should jump them tomorrow
 
tdjones34 said:
Nope. Multi team breaker head to head doesn't matter
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You're ******* wrong, genius. If you bothered to read the ACC rules, you wouldn't run your ignorant mouth.

Head-to-head is, quite literally, the FIRST tiebreaker for THREE (OR MORE) Team Ties. Assuming, as I correctly pointed out, that all teams are common opponents.

Try researching before yapping.


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Guys, I haven’t seen the media rally around this program this much since the NCAA investigation debacle.

If we win out, we’ll be in. The pressure is mounting. We got major CFB reporters and analysts beating the drum for us. Just take care of business.
 
PIPO said:
I agree, no doubt.

But Mario didn’t help us there.

Also if we don’t get in, take ND off the schedule.

It only serves them as an independent. Not us because basically they are telling us, at worst make it to the conference championship or only lose 1 game at most or else.

They don’t respect the ACC. They actually respect the Big 12 more.

Also must stop with Automatic bid for G5. That’s a throw away easy game for whomever plays them in the first round.
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The G5 should be split off and have their own separate playoff. I don’t remember which thread I said it in yesterday (****, maybe I said it in this one), but it’s absolutely ridiculous that the majority of the G5 is playing for nothing every year. Most of them have zero chance of ever even getting that one G5 spot. They should be even more ****ed off than us. How is it right to have 60ish schools competing for one single spot, a spot in which no one actually expects that team to compete anyway? It’s a joke.

Regarding taking ND off the schedule, I go back and forth on this one. Our win against them is the only reason we even have ANYONE on our side arguing we deserve a shot at the CFP. Otherwise, we’d get crucified again for having a terrible schedule. Florida and FSU ****ed us by sucking. The ACC has done nothing to help its perception over the years, while the SEC spent millions on the best PR campaign in sports and got rewarded with a killer ESPN contract and media buy-in.

****, they even put in a one-loss Bama over a 13-0 FSU just a couple years ago. Yes, I know that was a four team playoff, and now we have 12, but it doesn’t matter. They will always put more SEC teams in over an ACC team if they can. It’s in the contract. The only way for us to prevent them from keeping us out is to go undefeated, but that’s just unfair and unrealistic. It was always difficult to do that, and now it’s **** near impossible. It just sucks and short of suing under antitrust laws, I’m not really sure what our options are.
 
Let's re-read the words.

Heading: Three (or More) Team Tie - If you have three or more teams all tied, then you use these rules.

First paragraph: This tiebreaker can be used in one of three ways. It could be used to determine ONE championship game participant (i.e., one team finishes undefeated, and three teams finish "second" and are each "tied" with 1 loss). It could be used to determine BOTH championship game participants (i.e., four teams all finish with the best ACC record, say 6-2). Or it could be used to ELIMINATE teams from the tie, thus winnowing down 4 tied teams to 3 tied teams, or 3 tied teams down to 2 tied teams (in which case the 2-team tie rules would come into place).

VERY FIRST CRITERION, labeled a: Combined HEAD-TO-HEAD win percentage among tied teams IF IF IF all tied teams are common opponents. Thus if there are THREE tied teams that ALL played each other, perhaps one team beat BOTH other teams, perhaps one team beat ONE team, and perhaps the third team lost to both other teams. in that case, there would be a HEAD-TO-HEAD WIN-PERCENTAGE ranking of those three teams. If only ONE championship game participant is needed, it would go to the team that beat the other two head-to-head. If a SECOND championship game participant is needed, the second slot would go to the 1-1 team, and the team that lost both would be eliminated.

Not that hard to read words and apply them.
 
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tdjones34 said:
We have a better resume than vandy
They had an extra win
With same record we should jump them tomorrow
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We had a better resume than Utah as well. And 7-2 OU + 7-2 Texas. They were all above vandy and us. Hopefully all of that changes.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
You looked in the mirror? Because you are the laziest ************ of all.
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Been called a lot of things but never lazy before

If tied teams have a common opponent i get ut
But UL has 3 losses
The tied teams would be UVA UM and SMU

Of I'm wrong I'll admit it but don't think UL would apply as you stated with a 3 way tie of smu
 
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