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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

hurricaneman said:
The top 12 is littered with teams Miami beat or played similar opponents and outperformed all of them. That's my biggest issue if Miami is left out. If this whole thing is truly about getting the 12 best teams in, we have so many measuring stick examples.
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This is where the bloated conferences ruins the sport. We could miss out on the ACCCG because of a four way tie to Duke if certain chips fall the wrong way. SMU could see us go with a H2H win. **** even UGA could sneak in the SECCG over Bama with Bama having a H2H. We’re taking the one sport that can be decide with H2H matchups and using the records of other opponents to decide this stuff. It’s dumb as **** and ruining the sport.
 
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cookies said:
Given how the media is talking about Texas, I’m not quite sure that Vandy will be ranked above them. But I expect us to be higher than Vandy.

Could see UVA getting stiffed here w/ a 7-3 Texas above them.
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If the CFP committee has any integrity or legitimacy they will move us above Vandy, who has ZERO business being anywhere near the top 10. If this is truly about “getting the best 12 teams in the CFP” like they’ve claimed, move their asses out.
 
LeanMeanOrangeGreen said:
If the CFP committee has any integrity or legitimacy they will move us above Vandy, who has ZERO business being anywhere near the top 10. If this is truly about “getting the best 12 teams in the CFP” like they’ve claimed, move their asses out.
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I guess we'll see Tuesday night.
 

Miami Herald just broke down our slim path to the ACC Championship (the only surefire way to lock a playoff spot). I crunched ESPN's FPI odds on those games: 7.35% chance we make it. Yikes. Miami controls its destiny... but barely. That SMU loss? Straight malpractice. Tough road ahead, Canes fans.

Miami’s Only Realistic Path​

Miami (currently 8-2, 6-0 in ACC) has to do ALL of these thing

  1. Win their last 2 game
    • Nov 22 @ Virginia Tech → very likely (90%)
    • Nov 29 @ Pittsburgh → pretty likely (73%) → If they win both → Miami finishes 10-2 (8-0 in ACC)
  2. Pittsburgh has to beat Georgia Tech this week (Nov 22
    • Pitt only has a 43% chance
    • Why it matters: If Georgia Tech wins, they go to 7-1 in ACC and Miami is eliminated no matter what.
  3. SMU (currently also unbeaten in ACC) has to lose at least one of their last two game
    • vs Louisville (SMU is favored, only 32% chance they lose)
    • @ California (SMU is favored, only 20% chance they lose) → Chance SMU loses at least one → about 46%
  4. One last little thing: some tiebreaker help Basically, either Virginia Tech beats Virginia this week (19% chance) OR Duke loses to UNC or Wake Forest in the next two weeks (47% chance). → Combined chance this happens → about 57%

Putting It All Together (Like a Parlay)​

Think of it like a 4-leg parlay you’d bet on:


What Has to HappenRough ChanceRunning Total So Far
Miami wins both games65%65%
× Pitt beats Georgia Tech× 43%28%
× SMU loses at least once× 46%13%
× Tiebreaker help happens× 57%≈ 7.4%

Final chance Miami actually makes the ACC Championship: about 1 in 13.5 (roughly 7.4%).

In Summary​


Miami is in control of their own destiny… but barely. Pittsburgh has to upset Georgia Tech this week. Right now it’s only about a 1-in-14 shot that everything falls exactly the way Miami needs it to.
 
Go Canes!! said:
Just throttle VT and Pitt and we’ll be in.
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Maybe - our best-case scenario without an ACC championship is 11, and I don't think that's far-fetched.

The problem then becomes if GT and VA win out, the winner of that matchup for the ACC championship will bump us out of that 11 spot.

We need Pitt to beat GT to keep that ACC championship goal alive.
 
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FL Cane said:
I told you to go read the CFPs own rules and criterial. You’re also not rational or objective. People on here keep pointing out the flaws in your arguments, and you keep ignoring them and pretending they don’t exist. You also keep making false assertions, such as on ranked wins. We have more, but you’re pretending one of our ranked wins doesn’t exist because it undermines your argument on metrics we lead in. We also have a better win against our common opponent so far, another metric you omit.
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We have one ranked, man. Lol I don't understand why this is so hard for you. Maybe you're just a blind homer? Anyways, we're going in circles so we can agree to disagree.
 
Category 6 said:

Miami Herald just broke down our slim path to the ACC Championship (the only surefire way to lock a playoff spot). I crunched ESPN's FPI odds on those games: 7.35% chance we make it. Yikes. Miami controls its destiny... but barely. That SMU loss? Straight malpractice. Tough road ahead, Canes fans.

Miami’s Only Realistic Path​

Miami (currently 8-2, 6-0 in ACC) has to do ALL of these thing

  1. Win their last 2 game
    • Nov 22 @ Virginia Tech → very likely (90%)
    • Nov 29 @ Pittsburgh → pretty likely (73%) → If they win both → Miami finishes 10-2 (8-0 in ACC)
  2. Pittsburgh has to beat Georgia Tech this week (Nov 22
    • Pitt only has a 43% chance
    • Why it matters: If Georgia Tech wins, they go to 7-1 in ACC and Miami is eliminated no matter what.
  3. SMU (currently also unbeaten in ACC) has to lose at least one of their last two game
    • vs Louisville (SMU is favored, only 32% chance they lose)
    • @ California (SMU is favored, only 20% chance they lose) → Chance SMU loses at least one → about 46%
  4. One last little thing: some tiebreaker help Basically, either Virginia Tech beats Virginia this week (19% chance) OR Duke loses to UNC or Wake Forest in the next two weeks (47% chance). → Combined chance this happens → about 57%

Putting It All Together (Like a Parlay)​

Think of it like a 4-leg parlay you’d bet on:


What Has to HappenRough ChanceRunning Total So Far
Miami wins both games65%65%
× Pitt beats Georgia Tech× 43%28%
× SMU loses at least once× 46%13%
× Tiebreaker help happens× 57%≈ 7.4%

Final chance Miami actually makes the ACC Championship: about 1 in 13.5 (roughly 7.4%).

In Summary​


Miami is in control of their own destiny… but barely. Pittsburgh has to upset Georgia Tech this week. Right now it’s only about a 1-in-14 shot that everything falls exactly the way Miami needs it to.
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JennStrawley’sBabyDaddy said:
You’re joking with saying we don’t have an advantage in a single metric, right? The criteria that’s supposed to be used by the committee: H2H, SOS, conference championships, common opponents, results against ranked teams. Every person that watches sports knows that head to head carries the most weight. They have 2 ranked wins and we have 3. Common opponents will be NC State, Pitt, Stanford, and Syracuse. We both killed NC State. We haven’t played Pitt and they still have Syracuse and Stanford (teams we also destroyed). ESPN has SOS with us at 43 and them at 29.

Here are the results for the metrics you claim we have nothing over them in:

H2H - us

Common opponents - right now a wash, but they’d have to win their last 2 by a wide margin with us struggling against Pitt to take this metric.

Results against ranked teams - us (3-0 vs 2-2)

SOS - them

Conference championship - NA

So we have 2/3 while also holding the most important in head to head. Common opponent could end up making it 3/4.
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Oh so you actually don't know the criteria lol nvm sorry I thought I was talking to someone who was well-informed. H2H is not close to the top criteria. They've repeatedly said it's a tie breaker.

Have a good one.
 
TrumpyCane wants to know why GT winning knocks us out?

Title game takes 2 teams and as long as there are 3 teams tied for 2nd H2H doesn’t come into play
 
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TrumpyCane said:
TrumpyCane wants to know why GT winning knocks us out?

Title game takes 2 teams and as long as there are 3 teams tied for 2nd H2H doesn’t come into play
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Because Virginia owns the tie breaker over us with common opponents because they beat Louisville and we didn’t.
 
TrumpyCane said:
TrumpyCane wants to know why GT winning knocks us out?

Title game takes 2 teams and as long as there are 3 teams tied for 2nd H2H doesn’t come into play
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Head-to-head comes into play WHEN ALL TIED TEAMS have played each other (assuming more than 2 teams are tied). You cannot use head-to-head selectively, without the possibility that A beat B, B beat C, but then C beat A. You'd be locked in an endless logic loop.

Just to use some math extremes...

When you are breaking a simple 2-team tie, then head-to-head is EASY.

Buf if you have a 4-way tie or a 5-way tie in a huge conference, your chances of having head-to-heads (and/or common opponents among all teams tied) declines.

In other words, the chaos of having a LOT of teams tied...favors Miami. But when you have a clearcut "#1 team" (i.e., GaTech being the only, or one out of 2 teams, with only 1 loss), then this disfavors Miami.

In even shorter words, if GaTech wins, Miami has no shot at the ACC-CG.
 
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