MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

[FL Cane]

A loss to Cincy should certainly move them below Miami. Only problem is how do you move them below Utah. CFP is praying it all just works out.

I think Utah is an easy one for the CFP. No good wins, beat a bunch of mid B12 teams.

 

[itsacanething]

They were widely criticized for leaving us out last year. If we win out, they'll put us in hoping we get destroyed just to show they know what they're doing.

they weren't widely criticized for leaving us out..if anything they received criticism for leaving bama out. we played ourselves out of it last year on our own.

 

[itsacanething]

Lot of media starting to pivot to this position. The committee would have to be hackish to levels unseen in CFB history to put in ND over us with both of us at 10-2

their worst nightmare is that we take Pitt apart, finish with 4 dominant wins in a row and have the same record. yikes.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Lot of media starting to pivot to this position. The committee would have to be hackish to levels unseen in CFB history to put in ND over us with both of us at 10-2

What yall are not understanding is the committee doesn't care about this, at all. They have told you what they think about Miami and ND. It's not like we're right next to each other. They had ND *six* spots ahead of Miami last week.

Only one team between them lost. MAYBE they can try to course correct and move us ahead of Vandy. But we're still going to be AT LEAST 4 spots behind them tomorrow night.

There is no eye test. They use metrics. And the ones they look at, whether we believe them or not, have ND ahead. Also, suddenly flip-flopping them would be admitting they were MASSIVELY wrong, which is not going to happen. I will gladly take 20 pages of people bumping this if I'm wrong and telling me I'm a ******* moron, but it's not going to happen. 10-2 ND will be above 10-2 Miami. 10-2 ND is 1000.0% in the playoff. If Miami gets in also, I'm sure the committee would say that's great. But it will not be at the expense of ND.

 

[itsacanething]

What yall are not understanding is the committee doesn't care about this, at all. They have told you what they think about Miami and ND. It's not like we're right next to each other. They had ND *six* spots ahead of Miami last week.

Only one team between them lost. MAYBE they can try to course correct and move us ahead of Vandy. But we're still going to be AT LEAST 4 spots behind them tomorrow night.

There is no eye test. They use metrics. And the ones they look at, whether we believe them or not, have ND ahead. Also, suddenly flip-flopping them would be admitting they were MASSIVELY wrong, which is not going to happen. I will gladly take 20 pages of people bumping this if I'm wrong and telling me I'm a ******* moron, but it's not going to happen. 10-2 ND will be above 10-2 Miami. 10-2 ND is 1000.0% in the playoff. If Miami gets in also, I'm sure the committee would say that's great. But it will not be at the expense of ND.

you are not wrong. they will not course correct us that many spots. our losses while not terrible are not good either. they will use that as justification. however if we close the season in dominant fashion its going to be hard for them to justify on national tv.

 

[FL Cane]

What yall are not understanding is the committee doesn't care about this, at all. They have told you what they think about Miami and ND. It's not like we're right next to each other. They had ND *six* spots ahead of Miami last week.

Only one team between them lost. MAYBE they can try to course correct and move us ahead of Vandy. But we're still going to be AT LEAST 4 spots behind them tomorrow night.

There is no eye test. They use metrics. And the ones they look at, whether we believe them or not, have ND ahead. Also, suddenly flip-flopping them would be admitting they were MASSIVELY wrong, which is not going to happen. I will gladly take 20 pages of people bumping this if I'm wrong and telling me I'm a ******* moron, but it's not going to happen. 10-2 ND will be above 10-2 Miami. 10-2 ND is 1000.0% in the playoff. If Miami gets in also, I'm sure the committee would say that's great. But it will not be at the expense of ND.

I disagree. They’ve ranked teams where they view them in that moment. For their sake, they’re praying that we drop a game, because that makes their lives 100% easier. I have said and will continue to say that either they take both of us, us over ND, or neither of us. The media narrative isn’t even flowing in NDs direction. Seen a lot of CFB personalities and media say it’s gotta be us. Was not the case last year. Win out like we have an I think we’re in.

 

[b caned]

you are not wrong. they will not course correct us that many spots. our losses while not terrible are not good either. they will use that as justification. however if we close the season in dominant fashion its going to be hard for them to justify on national tv.

Particularly because the committee keeps saying they need and want to see consistency from Miami. They/we all know about the November flop…

Force their hand and make them eat their words. Win these next two for four in a row and checkmate. There’s your consistency CFP committee.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out but the national media already calling out a 10-2 ND vs Miami who gets in…certainly doesn’t hurt.

 

[TwentySix]

Interesting graphic on the Cover 3 pod. Two of these teams are ranked.

 

[MedleyCane]

I don't know the politics of selecting teams for the postseason, but I would think if it would be in the self-interest of SEC and Big10 schools NOT to have UM involved as, talent-wise, we can line up with their programs. If they have to include ACC, they would want UVA or SMU, who may be well-coached and have a good story to tell, but they don't stack up with the legit SEC and Big10 programs.
They are akin to the cute and cuddly teams invited to the college basketball tournaments.
And, of course, the ACC officials support this narrative, going out of their way to fck UM on
the field.

 

[MedleyCane]

Particularly because the committee keeps saying they need and want to see consistency from Miami. They/we all know about the November flop…

Force their hand and make them eat their words. Win these next two for four in a row and checkmate. There’s your consistency CFP committee.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out but the national media already calling out a 10-2 ND vs Miami who gets in…certainly doesn’t hurt.

Not just win, but win decisively.
Controlling both teams.
Vandy beat VT. We will need to beat them by a bigger margin.
Similarly, need to beat Pitt by greater margin than ND's margin.
Need to do what Bobby Bowden used to do back in the day.

 

[MiamiInvestor]

You’re joking with saying we don’t have an advantage in a single metric, right? The criteria that’s supposed to be used by the committee: H2H, SOS, conference championships, common opponents, results against ranked teams. Every person that watches sports knows that head to head carries the most weight. They have 2 ranked wins and we have 3. Common opponents will be NC State, Pitt, Stanford, and Syracuse. We both killed NC State. We haven’t played Pitt and they still have Syracuse and Stanford (teams we also destroyed). ESPN has SOS with us at 43 and them at 29.

Here are the results for the metrics you claim we have nothing over them in:

H2H - us

Common opponents - right now a wash, but they’d have to win their last 2 by a wide margin with us struggling against Pitt to take this metric.

Results against ranked teams - us (3-0 vs 2-2)

SOS - them

Conference championship - NA

So we have 2/3 while also holding the most important in head to head. Common opponent could end up making it 3/4.

your username made me laugh out loud. I forgot all about her.

 

[JackMcClinton89]

We would need a lot of things to go our way given how bad last weekend was in terms of results. Given that the ACC and G5 champ will likely be out of the top 12, we would need to finish 10th in the final rankings to have a chance. We will either be 13th or 14th in the rankings this week (maybe a distant shot at 12th but I don't see us passing Utah after they obliterated Baylor on the road) and it will be hard to see 3-4 teams ahead of us lose. ND has Stanford/Cuse so they aren't losing, Bama has a cupcake and a check out Auburn team so they aren't losing. BYU/Utah/Vandy/OU all do have losable games and I would guess 1 or 2 of them will lose another game... but all 4 losing is unlikely and likely necessary for us to jump.

To top this off we have to beat a Pitt team on the road that is probably the 2nd best team we have played this season outside of ND for this to event matter.

 

[ST26]

If we want a chance to make it, we need to jump Vandy tomorrow (potentially Utah too). From there, we just need Bama or Oklahoma to lose. For those thinking we’re going to jump ND, it’ll never happen. ND is likely going to keep climbing the rankings, so the committee isn’t going to drop them 5-7 spots at the last second

 

[Cane_Mutiny]

They were widely criticized for leaving us out last year. If we win out, they'll put us in hoping we get destroyed just to show they know what they're doing.

I don't recall any criticism besides from our own fans... Most of the CFB world doesn't like or respect us. They begrudgingly acknowledged that we looked good to start this year, and then completely wrote us off the first chance they had.

 

[caneingville]

Particularly because the committee keeps saying they need and want to see consistency from Miami. They/we all know about the November flop…

Force their hand and make them eat their words. Win these next two for four in a row and checkmate. There’s your consistency CFP committee.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out but the national media already calling out a 10-2 ND vs Miami who gets in…certainly doesn’t hurt.

That’s just their convenient excuse of the day. If we win out, they’ll move the goalposts and say something else.

Even ESPN is saying our NCST win isn’t good enough and practically campaigning for us to stay out.

Week 12 takeaways: A young running back duo, Oklahoma's dominant defense and more

Our college football experts break down key storylines and performances from Week 12.

www.espn.com

 

[miamifan007]

I disagree. They’ve ranked teams where they view them in that moment. For their sake, they’re praying that we drop a game, because that makes their lives 100% easier. I have said and will continue to say that either they take both of us, us over ND, or neither of us. The media narrative isn’t even flowing in NDs direction. Seen a lot of CFB personalities and media say it’s gotta be us. Was not the case last year. Win out like we have an I think we’re in.

Some media is against us, some is with us.

 

[Felonious Monk]

they weren't widely criticized for leaving us out..if anything they received criticism for leaving bama out. we played ourselves out of it last year on our own.

I can recall reading it from several sources. Both us and Bama shot ourselves in the foot last year and this one.

 

[miamifan007]

The one that not a lot of people are talking about is Oregon.

If they beat USC next weekend but lose at Washington on the last week of the regular season, they could drop out. They have beaten literally no one this season. Their best win is a 6-4 Iowa. Could 10-2 Oregon drop below 10-2 Miami and the Big 10 only get 2 teams in? It’s possible.

I’ve been doing all the math assuming the Big 10 gets 3 in. But Oregon is -300 to make the playoff right now. That’s far from a lock. I wonder if losing the last weekend of the year pushes them out. Just another piece to track the next 2 weeks.

I’ll say this, a 10-2 Miami is finishing somewhere between #10 (last team in) and #12 (2nd team out). Gonna be real tight either way if we can get the next 2.

One small piece of optimism, although it’s not much. We were +400 to make the playoff yesterday morning. We went to +370 this morning. We’re currently +300 right now.

Go beat VT by 28 and let’s keep this thing going.

I always tell people, Vegas knows.

Miami currently has the 11th best odds to win the MNC.

 

[ShadowSpring]

no

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I always tell people, Vegas knows.

Miami currently has the 11th best odds to win the MNC.

13th, according to DK.

Taint
Indiana
A&M
ND
UGA
Texas Tech
Bama
Oregon
Oklahoma
Ole Miss

All of those are 22/1 or better.

USC 60/1
Utah 75/1
Miami 80/1

No one else is better than 100/1