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The Recipe for a National Championship

bshaw28

Junior
Joined
Nov 6, 2011
Messages
2,939
I see this posted here all the time - "we don't need a great (insert position), just look at (insert team/insert year)". Example - "we don't need a 1st Round/Heisman winning QB to win it all, just look at Ken Dorsey"

Technically - this is correct. In Reality - what you need is Day 1 & 2 NFL talent at enough position groups that it covers for the positions where you're weaker.

I looked at every NC team since 2010 and their 8 position groups - QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB

Out of the last 10 NC's
- 10 out of 10 had a player drafted on Day 1 & 2 in a majority of their position groups (5 or more out of 8). Of the last 8 NC's, 6 (maybe 7) have had 7+.

Here's how many Day 1 & 2 picks each NC team has had at their 8 Position Groups:

1642782198302.png


To win a NC, you need either:

1)
NFL Rounds 1-3 talent in AT LEAST 5 of your 8 positions
2) Superman as your QB (Cam Newton in 2010)
 
Last edited:

Pentagon Cane

Junior
Joined
Jan 16, 2012
Messages
6,778
I see this posted here all the time - "we don't need a great (insert position), just look at (insert team/insert year)". Example - "we don't need a 1st Round/Heisman winning QB to win it all, just look at Ken Dorsey"

Technically - this is correct. In Reality - what you need is Day 1 & 2 NFL talent at enough position groups that it covers for the positions where you're weaker.

I looked at every NC team since 2010 and their 8 position groups - QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB

Out of the last 10 NC's
- 10 out of 10 had a player drafted on Day 1 & 2 in a majority of their position groups (5 or more out of 8). Of the last 8 NC's, 6 (maybe 7) have had 7+.

Here's how many Day 1 & 2 picks each NC team has had at their 8 Position Groups:

View attachment 173643

To win a NC, you need either:

1)
NFL Rounds 1-3 talent in AT LEAST 5 of your 8 positions
2) Superman as your QB (Cam Newton in 2010)
The punishment for Newton taking bags was restricting his father from attending the national championship game.
 
Joined
Jul 13, 2014
Messages
9,079
You need the majority of your roster to be 5 and 4 stars. That is literally the only requirement. No team in well over a decade has won a natty without one of the best blue chip ratios in the country. Stars matter, period.

Now, stars don't guarantee you will win a championship.

But a lack of stars does guarantee you won't.
 

JeddTheFisch

Fischin'
Maude
Joined
Sep 5, 2018
Messages
8,973
You need the majority of your roster to be 5 and 4 stars. That is literally the only requirement. No team in well over a decade has won a natty without one of the best blue chip ratios in the country. Stars matter, period.

Now, stars don't guarantee you will win a championship.

But a lack of stars does guarantee you won't.
With the caveat that it has to be spread out across position groups. A majority of the roster isn't enough. Just look at some F$U teams and our roster last year.

If you've stacked a ton of 4 and 5 star WRs and LBs, but have a none on the OL, don't expect to win it all.

Your last statement is spot on. Can't do it without a majority though. Necessary condition.
 

g8rh8rMD

Not a Dr.
Joined
May 21, 2016
Messages
5,452
I see this posted here all the time - "we don't need a great (insert position), just look at (insert team/insert year)". Example - "we don't need a 1st Round/Heisman winning QB to win it all, just look at Ken Dorsey"

Technically - this is correct. In Reality - what you need is Day 1 & 2 NFL talent at enough position groups that it covers for the positions where you're weaker.

I looked at every NC team since 2010 and their 8 position groups - QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB

Out of the last 10 NC's
- 10 out of 10 had a player drafted on Day 1 & 2 in a majority of their position groups (5 or more out of 8). Of the last 8 NC's, 6 (maybe 7) have had 7+.

Here's how many Day 1 & 2 picks each NC team has had at their 8 Position Groups:

View attachment 173643

To win a NC, you need either:

1)
NFL Rounds 1-3 talent in AT LEAST 5 of your 8 positions
2) Superman as your QB (Cam Newton in 2010)
To be fair - which comes first, the chicken or the egg?

Do players from national championship teams get drafted, or to draftable players win national championships? I think it goes both ways.

We've had plenty of talent to not go 7-6 for the past 15 years. We need to start by doing a better job with the players that we already get, while stacking chips in recruiting, which will get immeasurably easier if we're winning 10+ games and our division every year.

We're not going anywhere without better coaching AND better players. I don't feel like this needs to be restated as often as it seems to come up around here. In other news, when you get water on you, you become wet.
 

TUSKtimes

BAMMER
Joined
Aug 26, 2021
Messages
290
Out of the last 10 NC's - 10 out of 10 had a player drafted on Day 1 & 2 in a majority of their position groups (5 or more out of 8). Of the last 8 NC's, 6 (maybe 7) have had 7+.

Here's how many Day 1 & 2 picks each NC team has had at their 8 Position Groups:

View attachment 173643

To win a NC, you need either:

1)
NFL Rounds 1-3 talent in AT LEAST 5 of your 8 positions
2) Superman as your QB (Cam Newton in 2010)
There's a good reason that anything beyond a 4 team playoff is overkill. The talent just isn't there. We are in the era of the "super team." BAMA, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, perhaps TAMU is close to joining elite talent status in the SEC. But a lot of high 4* and 5* are heading to these schools. USC may be the next elite talent to step back up again with Riley doing his thing and with the Trojan's history and geography. Florida, FSU, and Miami have been there and done that and they live on the right soil. But regardless of the ebb and flow of the elite teams, parity is mostly just a myth in college football.
 

bshaw28

Junior
Joined
Nov 6, 2011
Messages
2,939
To be fair - which comes first, the chicken or the egg?

Do players from national championship teams get drafted, or to draftable players win national championships? I think it goes both ways.

We've had plenty of talent to not go 7-6 for the past 15 years. We need to start by doing a better job with the players that we already get, while stacking chips in recruiting, which will get immeasurably easier if we're winning 10+ games and our division every year.

We're not going anywhere without better coaching AND better players. I don't feel like this needs to be restated as often as it seems to come up around here. In other news, when you get water on you, you become wet.

Definitely fair to say it goes both ways. There's always going to be talented teams that underachieve, and less talented that overachieve.

Both talent & coaching are important, but I'm pretty firmly in the talent > coaching. IMO - Miami's staff with Alabama's roster > Alabama's staff with Miami's roster.

And I don't think you need to win first to recruit talent. LSU & Alabama were middling before Saban. Same with Dabo at Clemson, Texas before and after Mack Brown, USC before Pete Carroll.

My simplified take is - Recruitment is a Sales job, and some coaches are just better Salesman than others. Give a better sales pitch, get better players (which eventually become high draft picks), win more games.
 

Tad Footeball

1996 Interim Big East Conference Commissioner
Joined
Feb 6, 2014
Messages
16,667
Another reason Mario was the right choice with his priority being recruiting over all else.

X and Os can't beat 4* and 5* Talent.
Exactly. If you're buying into Mario you're at least largely buying into the notion that we're going to out-talent a lot of teams. Obviously we want to hopefully see him develop as a gameday coach and hire legit staff but his main selling point has always been the ability to amass talent.
 
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