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The pointspread didn’t move

Canestomp said:
They're still trying to digest Jarren Williams. Major sports news outlets pretty much had a 100% guarantee that Tate was starting. CBS would write articles analyzing the upcoming match up between the Canes and Gators and always assumed Tate would go head to head with Feleipe Franks. It was actually nauseating to read. Many of them are eating crow right now and scrambling to see how the Williams puzzle piece fits in their predictions.
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Which shows that they don't know **** about our program in general. They will be surprised as the season goes on. I believe we will be much better than the world thinks. Don't forget, much of the this from the major media, the same people who give you fake news ( and believe me, a lot of it is fake in the sense the journalists selectively report or distort to present their own point-of-view.) The media, so arrogant and full of certitude in their superior opinion, will likely be very surprised as we roll along....I believe we are a sleeping giant. When we wake up and explode, I don't know, but I think we will.
 
caneinorlando said:
Who gives af??....I hope their favored by 35 come gametime...
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The direction of the line move up until the close is way more often right than wrong in predicting what will happen. Just some of the games over the past few years that the direction of the line movement was right on of ours was:

LSU (line moved towards LSU and we all know what happened)
FSU (2017 and 2018)
Wisconsin (2017 and 2018)
Clemson (2017)
VT (2017 and 2018)
BC (2018)
Virginia (2018)
Pitt (2017)

The notable exception I can think of is Notre Dame in 2017. It didn't really move in our favor and we crushed them. But most of the time the line move is right.
 
Poptimus said:
The direction of the line move up until the close is way more often right than wrong in predicting what will happen. Just some of the games over the past few years that the direction of the line movement was right on of ours was:

LSU (line moved towards LSU and we all know what happened)
FSU (2017 and 2018)
Wisconsin (2017 and 2018)
Clemson (2017)
VT (2017 and 2018)
BC (2018)
Virginia (2018)
Pitt (2017)

The notable exception I can think of is Notre Dame in 2017. It didn't really move in our favor and we crushed them. But most of the time the line move is right.
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This last claim needs some concrete stats. Otherwise, you should be a millionaire by now.
 
From the perspective of the betting public, and even some of the professionals, the headline name was Tate Martell. If anything, I'd have expected Jarren's name to move the spread +0.5 to 1. What I think being unchanged tells us is that no portion of the betting world thinks the QB matters, so in essence none of the QBs are a factor, because Tate was holding the line down either.
 
ajkreider said:
This last claim needs some concrete stats. Otherwise, you should be a millionaire by now.
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You can Google this, it's a known fact. It's not easy to implement in real life. Have you ever tried to wager over a grand on a first half college basketball total between two Sun Belt teams? Good luck. You'll get limited. And that's where the line moves are sharpest, in the less efficient markets where the lines don't have a full week (or, in the case of our game against UF, a couple months to marinate). It's also not easy for a variety of reasons such as the late money coming in just a couple minutes before kickoff/tipoff. You start placing bets online after big late moves and you'll get banned for chasing steam. Don't take my word for it, start watching the screen, SBRforum has a free line service and so does vegasinsider.com. Back when I was heavy into this I was using SMTO which was on par with Don Best. The software was programmed to audibly announce when there was a major line move and it lit up like a Christmas tree without having to refresh the page. There's a reason you get banned for chasing steam.

Now I just talk about it from a perspective of what to expect.
 
I’m probably the first person to say this but I think this game goes over. Two good defenses often create turnovers & short fields couple that with the fact I think both teams will be going balls to the wall for 4 quarters on O. I see a 30-27 win for Miami. Bubba with a game winner.
 
mr.h said:
Normally Vegas gets it right, but no one knows or seen what’s coming...we’re going to blindside em.
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Media is writing Miami off and I dont Give af. They don’t out talent Miami anywhere and this is miami vs uf
 
There are so many unknown variables at play here that the oddsmakers are most likely not accounting for because they can't.
 
In 2008 when the MBS market started to fail, Moody’s and the rating agency’s didnt budge an inch until the wholeeee house came down. I see a similar thing happening here. I don’t see the line budging much. Maybe some sharps drop some big plays one way or the other but nothing more than 1/2 a point or so. What will be telling is watching the 2nd half line move throughout the first quarter as Miami goes from +3-4 allllll the way to -6-7 😎
 
The Franchise said:
Hammer the over and thank me later. That’s not gambling. It’s investing.
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I’ve been saying it all week Chise. Everyone loves the under, so take the over. I see a decent amount of turnovers resulting in short fields & a nice amount of explosive plays.
 
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