forums

The pointspread didn’t move

Poptimus

Poptimus

Senior
Joined
Nov 4, 2017
Messages
4,606
Pinnacle and many respected outs didn’t move the spread. ****, they didn’t even budge the vig after the announcement of Jarren starting.

Kind of surprising us naming a starting QB had no early effect on the line.
 
Advertisement
They're still trying to digest Jarren Williams. Major sports news outlets pretty much had a 100% guarantee that Tate was starting. CBS would write articles analyzing the upcoming match up between the Canes and Gators and always assumed Tate would go head to head with Feleipe Franks. It was actually nauseating to read. Many of them are eating crow right now and scrambling to see how the Williams puzzle piece fits in their predictions.
 
Advertisement
Poptimus said:
Pinnacle and many respected outs didn’t move the spread. ****, they didn’t even budge the vig after the announcement of Jarren starting.

Kind of surprising us naming a starting QB had no early effect on the line.
Click to expand...
I looked today as well. My ML moved from +210 to +235, but that may not have been yesterday.
 
Advertisement
It will when the game gets closer. I see the spread going higher. Remember Jarren making his first start since Highschool and has only played in 1 game since Highschool
 
Lines move for a few reasons, not just money. It can be an adjustment to major injury or suspension news or a move due to a “respect” account making a bet (not necessarily the largest bet, but one from a profiled winner that meets a threshold amount). There’s a reason Vegas makes you use a player’s card to track your history and why offshore uses sophisticated software to know who to be aware of. Or, the decision to start a new QB can cause a line to move. It’s sorta kinda a big deal.
 
HSFC said:
Why would line move, all players basically unproven at position. This line does not move until money becomes too heavy one way,
and if you want to bet Miami find a bookie in Gainesville.
Click to expand...
No clue. Not much of a gambler.
 
Advertisement
Poptimus said:
Pinnacle and many respected outs didn’t move the spread. ****, they didn’t even budge the vig after the announcement of Jarren starting.

Kind of surprising us naming a starting QB had no early effect on the line.
Click to expand...

We still have the same three backup QBs. Why have we improved?
 
Advertisement
Klamalama said:
We still have the same three backup QBs. Why have we improved?
Click to expand...
I didn't say I think we improved. Long-term, yes. This is a great move IMO. But we've seen many stud QBs over the years struggle in their first big game on the road (yes, this is on the road and will be a lot for a first time starter to digest: night game, ESPN, probably 65-70% Gaytors in attendance). Ken Dorsey comes to mind against Washington back in 2000. It's a tough thing for any - ANY - first time starter to do. So I actually thought the line would move in the Gaytors' favor. Apparently, it did at some outs like @For_The_U noted. I'm just going by Pinnacle and Bookmaker and there's been no movement. I found it odd. Like some others said, it's baked into the line that Tate was going to start. That's why Tate was the only QB of the 3 with Heisman odds and that's why the odds for who would lead us in passing yards was tilted in Tate's favor.

This is a big development and I think it caught the oddsmakers and the sharps off-guard. For now.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top