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The Perfect Storm?

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561Cane said:
I'd like to know about the Bama defensive returners as all I've heard is that they return 9 of 11 starters and landed a transfer from Tennessee who's a plug and start guy. The 41% defensive production doesn't add up...
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They roll players in the two deep to keep fresh bodies. 41% adds up if you consider the starters playing heavy snaps in competitive games but lower snap counts in blow outs. Also lost the two big time players in Barmore and Surtain.
 
Kn[]_[]ckles3o5 said:
They roll players in the two deep to keep fresh bodies. 41% adds up if you consider the starters playing heavy snaps in competitive games but lower snap counts in blow outs. Also lost the two big time players in Barmore and Surtain.
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No he is right. I was wrong. I was at the end if the article and i was mad tired. They return 77% production on D which ranked them 41st. Thats where i got mixed up. But the losses was in the secondary which impacted D improvement way more than the DL.
 
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Now we just have to follow up with action. Football is an emotional sport.....it makes grown men cry and be happy all at once.
 
supacane said:
Every so often a random mid major will show up and shock the college football world. Teams like UCF, Cincinatti, Iowa St for example will come out of nowhere and have a great season or a great season by their standards, double digit wins, big bowl game. Then you wonder how that happened, they can't recruit with the big boys, they don't get the 4 and 5 stars. Then you take a closer look at their rosters and all you see in the depth chart are 4 and 5 year guys and some 3 year guys. Very experienced and mature teams, coached up, bodies filled out. What this gotta do with my point? For the upcoming season Miami is #1 in offensive production returning(95%), #12 in defensive production returning(86%) and #3 overall in both combined(91%). Along with 19 of 22 returning starters. I have always thought and will continue to think the only thing that has been holding us back is coaching, overall. But this season coming i have some confidence in the overall staff Diaz has put together even though they have to go out a prove it as a unit. We are not one of those mid majors who cant get 4 and 5 star guys, we have good portions of 4 stars and some 5 star players but our experience level would be prime for one of those type of teams to cause major upsets. In addition to the staff improvements i think were made as well as key recruits and transfers. Im thinking we maybe in for a perfect storm.

I have said it multiple times, im not taking us in any big game like the opener, we have laid an egg time and time again but this time there may be tangible proof that it maybe different. Bama who we play in week 1 is #110 in returning production and people will say yes but they just plug in blue chips....they will but it will not be the same. LSU plugged in blue chips off their best ever team, they lost both their coordinators and it was not pretty. They seem like they never played football before. Bama lost 11 assistant coaches this past offseason including their OC to Texas. Saban is not a magician, and i dont see Bama falling off like LSU did but im not sure people are using facts in predicting their upcoming season, the more i did research to make this post.

Final point, ESPN did a article before last season and ill take some snippets. They used different metrics to try to predict how teams would fare based on their returning production. Over the previous 6 seasons before last, teams with their offense returning 60% or above in their production averaged about 2 points per game improvement while those below regressed by about 3 points per game. Also only 1 of the 18 teams who returned 90% saw their offensive rating fall, while 9 improved by atleast 7 adjusted points per game. On D its pretty much the same thing, teams returning atleast 85% of their production averaged 5 adjusted points per game improvement, while teams returning 40% or less regressed by the same 5 adjusted points and the key unit that made the most impact on D improvement was the secondary returning players.. Bama returns 33% of their offensive production and 77% not 41 %of their defensive production. I had read that wrong, mad late and i was tired.



For once picking us to make dramatic improvements may not just be blind faith, it might just be a perfect storm.
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I beg to differ regarding mighty Iowa St. For one, they've been a member of a MAJOR conference for centuries. huh? The atavistic Big 7 and Big 8. And now they mighty Big 12. Where Boomer Sooner rules supreme in CFB. and to a lesser degree other men's team sports. Also, with the exception of the past several seasons, Iowa St. has been a relative dominant mens BB program!! More so than your beloved Hurricanes in that particular team sports. Iowa St. even has NUMEROUS NCAA Tournament invitations, and has reached the Sweet-16 many times too. Back to the original notion of the thread. Yes, Iowa St. has been a consistent bottom-feeder in both the Big 8 and current Big 12, but lately they are a LEGITIMATE Top 15 CFB program. Again, I understand your BIAS about mighty Iowa St and all that. But for the time being they have EARNED the respect of the major CFB media-nexus, and have performed above their USUAL standards on the game day synthetic-turf. Oh. One more notion. I'M SUGGESTING they are at the level of past Miami teams and all that. Think conference championships and NC's. Because it's been many, many, many, many moons since MY Miami, Florida Hurricanes have made an appearance in the NC game. Peace and God Almighty Be With U! Especially with what's going around the world today. Enter my brothers and sisters whom are taking it to the streets in the British Isles and ALL over Europe. The Continent where the majority of U'all originate from. huh?
 
supacane said:
Every so often a random mid major will show up and shock the college football world. Teams like UCF, Cincinatti, Iowa St for example will come out of nowhere and have a great season or a great season by their standards, double digit wins, big bowl game. Then you wonder how that happened, they can't recruit with the big boys, they don't get the 4 and 5 stars. Then you take a closer look at their rosters and all you see in the depth chart are 4 and 5 year guys and some 3 year guys. Very experienced and mature teams, coached up, bodies filled out. What this gotta do with my point? For the upcoming season Miami is #1 in offensive production returning(95%), #12 in defensive production returning(86%) and #3 overall in both combined(91%). Along with 19 of 22 returning starters. I have always thought and will continue to think the only thing that has been holding us back is coaching, overall. But this season coming i have some confidence in the overall staff Diaz has put together even though they have to go out a prove it as a unit. We are not one of those mid majors who cant get 4 and 5 star guys, we have good portions of 4 stars and some 5 star players but our experience level would be prime for one of those type of teams to cause major upsets. In addition to the staff improvements i think were made as well as key recruits and transfers. Im thinking we maybe in for a perfect storm.

I have said it multiple times, im not taking us in any big game like the opener, we have laid an egg time and time again but this time there may be tangible proof that it maybe different. Bama who we play in week 1 is #110 in returning production and people will say yes but they just plug in blue chips....they will but it will not be the same. LSU plugged in blue chips off their best ever team, they lost both their coordinators and it was not pretty. They seem like they never played football before. Bama lost 11 assistant coaches this past offseason including their OC to Texas. Saban is not a magician, and i dont see Bama falling off like LSU did but im not sure people are using facts in predicting their upcoming season, the more i did research to make this post.

Final point, ESPN did a article before last season and ill take some snippets. They used different metrics to try to predict how teams would fare based on their returning production. Over the previous 6 seasons before last, teams with their offense returning 60% or above in their production averaged about 2 points per game improvement while those below regressed by about 3 points per game. Also only 1 of the 18 teams who returned 90% saw their offensive rating fall, while 9 improved by atleast 7 adjusted points per game. On D its pretty much the same thing, teams returning atleast 85% of their production averaged 5 adjusted points per game improvement, while teams returning 40% or less regressed by the same 5 adjusted points and the key unit that made the most impact on D improvement was the secondary returning players.. Bama returns 33% of their offensive production and 77% not 41 %of their defensive production. I had read that wrong, mad late and i was tired.



For once picking us to make dramatic improvements may not just be blind faith, it might just be a perfect storm.
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If your confident, I would like to see you lay down FIVE-HUNDRED and FIFTY bucks on Miami!!! Seriously I would. Because all I'm hoping for is a COMPETITVE game against MIGHTY Bama!!! Otherwise, they will be the LAUGHING STOCK of the major CFB realm and all that. If U Know What I Mean. Peace.
 
Been tryna cryptically tell y'all this. This might not be your parents Canes team but it sure aint your older brother's Canes team either.

In economics they say, "There is the seen and the unseen, and the unseen is usually greater." One of the unseen benefits of being aggressive in the portal is that you can create high velocity culture change. This year's Canes team will not walk into the ATL being scared of this Bama team.
 
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Cane_J15 said:
My best friend in life is a Bama fan and I texted him this week an told him idc the outcome I'm glad we're playing them this year! I believe in this team I believe in King! Kid is a special leader! The one and only weakness I see in this team is MLB even tho I think the production will be better than last year. I'm not worried about Keontra at all that kid is meant to play linebacker people forget he had 120 tackles in HS I also remember watching a interview he did I think on canesville an that dude seemed like someone u don't **** with! These Freshman are legit! My not so hot take James,LT, Smith, and Kam will all be first round picks on D! Mello, George and Smith are going to ball! Lol George is gonna be a good one loved his film I saw people on here doughting them but they were wrong! Melo is a straight dog an George is Mr always open the separation that kid gets for how "slow" he is is ridiculous. I haven't posted in a while I know every year is our year an we have question marks but I think this team shocks the world! This team is night and day from the team we rolled out with kosi an jarren lol this Kool aid good asf this morning love my team
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Just busting your chops here a bit but I really thought you were going some where with the My best friend is a Bama fan and then sadly it went know where . lol .
 
The counter argument to the OP is that everyone’s returning production is up this year bc of the covid super senior. Off the top of my head, I think teams are averaging ~76% returning production, which is the highest ever.

It’s nice to be at the top of the list, of course. But the DEs we lost could be impactful.
 
mackjones said:
If your confident, I would like to see you lay down FIVE-HUNDRED and FIFTY bucks on Miami!!! Seriously I would. Because all I'm hoping for is a COMPETITVE game against MIGHTY Bama!!! Otherwise, they will be the LAUGHING STOCK of the major CFB realm and all that. If U Know What I Mean. Peace.
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Im clear about what i think about us in these games. They have laid an egg time and time again. Not judt losing, just not even competitive, letting everyone down. Im at the point wbere they have to show me and i will take a competitive game. I just decided to go deeper into the dynamics of both teams and did a little research.
 
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supacane said:
For the upcoming season Miami is #1 in offensive production returning(95%), #12 in defensive production returning(86%) and #3 overall in both combined(91%). Along with 19 of 22 returning starters. I have always thought and will continue to think the only thing that has been holding us back is coaching,
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You just can't ignore the Offensive line which is returning lots of starters off a line ranked in the bottom 25% in most O-line categories.

Show me a team that wins consistently, doesn't fold the tent in big games and competes against great defenses, and that's a team with a pretty special O-Line. The average fan doesn't notice because the average fan thinks things are going so amazingly well, because of the incredible and talented skill players in the passing or rushing game - instead of the group that everything works off of.

I hope you're right and I hope they shut me up this season - but until proven otherwise, that's our weak link. And yes, coaching and recruiting are part of it.
 
scrantoncane said:
The counter argument to the OP is that everyone’s returning production is up this year bc of the covid super senior. Off the top of my head, I think teams are averaging ~76% returning production, which is the highest ever.

It’s nice to be at the top of the list, of course. But the DEs we lost could be
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Not True we are the most experienced team in the ACC by a good margin in terms of production. We have 91% returning, 2nd is GT at 82%. UNC is 79%, Clemson is 69% but their defense is #1 in returning production with 91%. Bama and UF have 55%.
 
Silver King said:
You just can't ignore the Offensive line which is returning lots of starters off a line ranked in the bottom 25% in most O-line categories.

Show me a team that wins consistently, doesn't fold the tent in big games and competes against great defenses, and that's a team with a pretty special O-Line. The average fan doesn't notice because the average fan thinks things are going so amazingly well, because of the incredible and talented skill players in the passing or rushing game - instead of the group that everything works off of.

I hope you're right and I hope they shut me up this season - but until proven otherwise, that's our weak link. And yes, coaching and recruiting are part of it.
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I made a post some days ago about the #1 thing am looking for V Bama is our OL to perform v their front 7. Im not picking us to win another big game until we do it. This thread wasn't about me thinking we are beating Bama, just that we have alot of the ingredients to do it and have a great season regardless.
 
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scrantoncane said:
The counter argument to the OP is that everyone’s returning production is up this year bc of the covid super senior. Off the top of my head, I think teams are averaging ~76% returning production, which is the highest ever.

It’s nice to be at the top of the list, of course. But the DEs we lost could be impactful.
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This is why the 2021 college football season might be one of the more interesting seasons in years. Loaded teams like Bama lost a lot of guys to the NFL and will have to depend on younger players while a lot of other teams are bringing back super seniors. There is a good chance that several of the heavyweights get knocked off this year, so hopefully we don’t have the same old teams in the playoff.
 
scrantoncane said:
The counter argument to the OP is that everyone’s returning production is up this year bc of the covid super senior. Off the top of my head, I think teams are averaging ~76% returning production, which is the highest ever.

It’s nice to be at the top of the list, of course. But the DEs we lost could be impactful.
Click to expand...


I believe its important to note there is a point of diminishing returns to this concept for teams at or near the top. The top 3-4 teams can go from good to great depth but will not get as much of a net-gain as a team going from poor to good depth. You can only play 11 at a time.

By this I mean - A top-5 team might have a better 3rd team lineup than a top -15 team but the top-15 team now has a two-deep roster that is more comparable to the two-deep of the top-5 teams. Its the two-deep roster that plays the games.
 
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