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Post-Season Record
We've heard about Jim Morris' stellar post-season record. It was pretty darn good in his first 12 years. Here is the breakdown for the past decade:
29 wins 24 losses (.547)
Record vs. #1 seeds: 3-12 (.200) We have not won a game against a #1 seed since 2008.
Record vs. #2 seeds: 4-6 (.400)
Record vs. #3 seeds: 13-5 (.722)
Record vs. #4 seeds: 9-1 (.900)
Home: 21-8 (.724)
Away: 0-7 (.000)
Neutral: 8-9 (.471) - Six of the eight neutral site wins were against 3/4 seeds in regionals that we ultimately lost.
His post-season winning percentage is already a mediocre .547, but as you look deeper you realize that even the mediocre record is smoke and mirrors. If the guy is not at home playing 3 and 4 seeds, his record is downright terrible.
College World Series Appearances
Three appearances in the last decade. Fifteen programs made three appearances during that same stretch, so we're not in elite company. Before Morris' Decade of Destruction, the previous 30% CWS rates were from 2006-2015 (Morris) and 2005-2014 (Morris). Before that? 1970-1979.
We are the only team in the Super Regional era that has not faced a #1 or #2 seed in two consecutive years on the paths to Omaha. Our resistance came against the likes of Columbia and Boston College (who both managed to beat us at home) and the perennial power Virginia Commonwealth. If not for those gifts, we are very likely comparing ourselves to NC State.
College World Series Success(?)
As of 7:15 PM, there have been 148 games played at the College World Series in the last decade. The University of Miami has won two of those games. Two. The historical Omaha legend Miami Hurricanes have won two games in Omaha in an entire decade. That alone should turn everyone's stomach.
That phenomenal number of wins has us tied for 18th with seven other teams. We are holding on tight to stay in the top 25 in that category. We are behind Georgia, who hasn't made the tournament for five straight years, and we are one CWS win ahead of Indiana. The Indiana Hoosiers of the Big 10.
"Randomness"
Some folks want you to believe that the post-season is just luck. No rhyme or reason. One stat blows that theory out of the water: 65% of the games won in Omaha over the past ten years have been won by 10 teams. Got that? 10 programs out of 300 account for two-thirds of all the CWS wins. What are they, the luckiest teams in America? No, they are the programs that built themselves for post-season success. South Carolina made it to three straight finals, and people want to tell you that it's random? Virgina/Vanderbilt AND Oregon State/UNC make it to back-to-back finals......but it's random? Arizona is one win away from making another finals appearance. Random.
Try this: choose about 30 cards from a deck and turn them face down. Pick two cards out. Shuffle the deck, turn them face down, then pick two cards again. Stop after you do it about 500 times without pulling the same two cards back-to-back. Then think about UVA/Vandy and tell me that CWS appearances and success are random.
We're not failing in Omaha because of dumb luck, we are failing in Omaha because we play a lightweight brand of baseball. What's that? We won 48 games (non D1 doesn't count)? Cool. We played exactly three Super Regional teams in the regular season, and we went 5-5 against them. None of those teams made noise in the post-season, either. Literally, with no exaggeration, our entire schedule fizzled out badly. Not one team on our schedule had an impressive post-season.
We will likely do the same next year. We will grind our way through Pittsburgh and Duke and Georgia Tech and we will win a lot of games and everyone will be impressed. Then, when we face a team that is playing really well (shocking to come across that in Omaha, right?), we will collapse. You want to talk about probabilities? Show me what we do against the top 15 or 20 teams in the post-season for the past 15 years. Then run some calculations and tell me how likely it is that our current philosophies will all of a sudden be successful.
Here is the scary part: think about what our Past Decade will look like when we have to drop the 2008 season off the back end.
We've heard about Jim Morris' stellar post-season record. It was pretty darn good in his first 12 years. Here is the breakdown for the past decade:
29 wins 24 losses (.547)
Record vs. #1 seeds: 3-12 (.200) We have not won a game against a #1 seed since 2008.
Record vs. #2 seeds: 4-6 (.400)
Record vs. #3 seeds: 13-5 (.722)
Record vs. #4 seeds: 9-1 (.900)
Home: 21-8 (.724)
Away: 0-7 (.000)
Neutral: 8-9 (.471) - Six of the eight neutral site wins were against 3/4 seeds in regionals that we ultimately lost.
His post-season winning percentage is already a mediocre .547, but as you look deeper you realize that even the mediocre record is smoke and mirrors. If the guy is not at home playing 3 and 4 seeds, his record is downright terrible.
College World Series Appearances
Three appearances in the last decade. Fifteen programs made three appearances during that same stretch, so we're not in elite company. Before Morris' Decade of Destruction, the previous 30% CWS rates were from 2006-2015 (Morris) and 2005-2014 (Morris). Before that? 1970-1979.
We are the only team in the Super Regional era that has not faced a #1 or #2 seed in two consecutive years on the paths to Omaha. Our resistance came against the likes of Columbia and Boston College (who both managed to beat us at home) and the perennial power Virginia Commonwealth. If not for those gifts, we are very likely comparing ourselves to NC State.
College World Series Success(?)
As of 7:15 PM, there have been 148 games played at the College World Series in the last decade. The University of Miami has won two of those games. Two. The historical Omaha legend Miami Hurricanes have won two games in Omaha in an entire decade. That alone should turn everyone's stomach.
That phenomenal number of wins has us tied for 18th with seven other teams. We are holding on tight to stay in the top 25 in that category. We are behind Georgia, who hasn't made the tournament for five straight years, and we are one CWS win ahead of Indiana. The Indiana Hoosiers of the Big 10.
"Randomness"
Some folks want you to believe that the post-season is just luck. No rhyme or reason. One stat blows that theory out of the water: 65% of the games won in Omaha over the past ten years have been won by 10 teams. Got that? 10 programs out of 300 account for two-thirds of all the CWS wins. What are they, the luckiest teams in America? No, they are the programs that built themselves for post-season success. South Carolina made it to three straight finals, and people want to tell you that it's random? Virgina/Vanderbilt AND Oregon State/UNC make it to back-to-back finals......but it's random? Arizona is one win away from making another finals appearance. Random.
Try this: choose about 30 cards from a deck and turn them face down. Pick two cards out. Shuffle the deck, turn them face down, then pick two cards again. Stop after you do it about 500 times without pulling the same two cards back-to-back. Then think about UVA/Vandy and tell me that CWS appearances and success are random.
We're not failing in Omaha because of dumb luck, we are failing in Omaha because we play a lightweight brand of baseball. What's that? We won 48 games (non D1 doesn't count)? Cool. We played exactly three Super Regional teams in the regular season, and we went 5-5 against them. None of those teams made noise in the post-season, either. Literally, with no exaggeration, our entire schedule fizzled out badly. Not one team on our schedule had an impressive post-season.
We will likely do the same next year. We will grind our way through Pittsburgh and Duke and Georgia Tech and we will win a lot of games and everyone will be impressed. Then, when we face a team that is playing really well (shocking to come across that in Omaha, right?), we will collapse. You want to talk about probabilities? Show me what we do against the top 15 or 20 teams in the post-season for the past 15 years. Then run some calculations and tell me how likely it is that our current philosophies will all of a sudden be successful.
Here is the scary part: think about what our Past Decade will look like when we have to drop the 2008 season off the back end.
