I knew something was off about this post; I let it breathe for a minute, but u can thank
@TimeBum for posting that Fishduck article.
I think what we have going on here is what’s called confirmation biased. U’re telling a story, but u’re not telling the full story, just like that Fishduck article.
U brought up Herbert’s Sr yr, which is great; however Mario had Justin for his Jr & Sr yr, & I noticed u left that part out.
For reference, since Timebum posted the Fishduck article, it mentioned Herbert’s sophomore yr before Mario stating, w/o facts, that Mario ruined him. OK, what do the in depth stats say:
Justin’s Sophomore Yr (2017):
-He threw the ball 30+ times in 3 of the 8 games he played. (37.5%)*
*This included Mario’s 1st game as interim coach in the LV bowl
-He threw the ball 28+ times in 4 of the 8 games he played (50%)*
*This included Mario’s 1st game as interim coach in the LV bowl
-The defenses he faced were ranked as follows:
So. Utah (FCS Total Def 91st / 116th Passing Def)
OrSt (120th Total Def / 83rd Passing Def)
Arizona (118th Total Def / 123rd Passing Def)
ASU (108th Total Def / 120th Passing Def
Nebraska (100th Total Def / 60th Passing Def)
Cal (95th Total Def / 112th Passing Def)
Wyoming (23rd Total Def / 13th Passing Def)
Boise St (22nd Total Def / 49th Passing Def)
So the two best defenses he faced were G5 opponents.
-He played one top 25 opponent, BSU in the LV Bowl Game
Yet:
-He only threw for 2+ TDs in 4 of the 8 games he played*
*This included Mario’s 1st game as interim coach in the LV bowl
-3 of those games came against NU, ASU, OrSt, w/ the 4th coming against Boise St (the game Mario coached)
-He threw for 250+ in 5 of the 8 games (62.5%)
-UO’s Passing O ranked 94th
-UO’s Passing/Completion ranked 77th
By comparison Herbert’s Junior yr (2018):
-He threw the ball 30+ times in 9 of the 13 games played (69%) including career high’s 40+ times in back to back games.
-The Defenses he faced were as follows:
Portland St (82nd FCS Total Def / 74th Passing Def)
OrSt (128th Total Def / 101st Passing Def)
SJSt (125th Total Def / 126th Passing Def)
BGBU (106th Total Def / 6th Passing Def)
UCLA (102nd Total Def / 88th Passing Def)
Arizona (92nd Total Def / 120th Passing Def)
Stanford (78th Total Def / 114th Passing Def)
ASU (73rd Total Def / 71st Passing Def)
WASU (42nd Total Def / 56th Passing Def)
Cal (15th Total Def / 9th Passing Def)
Utah (14th Total Def / 53rd Passing Def)
Washington (12th Total Def / 25th Passing Def)
MSU (10th Total Def / 62nd Passing Def)
-He played four Top 25 opponents (all P5)
So despite playing a better schedule, against tougher defenses, Herbert did this w/ Mario:
-He threw for 2+ TDs in 9 of his 13 games played (3 of those games came against the 42nd, 15th, & 14th ranked defenses)
-He threw for 250+ in 8 of the 13 games played (61.5%)
-UO’s Passing O ranked 49th
-UO’s Passing/Completion ranked 37th
Now, what does tell me? Absolutely nothing except Mario did not “ruin” Herbert. That fishduck article was not & did not tell the whole story.
The only thing I can & will say is that Mario, knowing what he had in Herbert, could’ve & should’ve used him more extensively his Sr yr. He did not get every ounce out of him that he could, & left a lot on the table to exploit. Regardless it’s a moot point, b/c when Herbert was tossing the rock his Jr Yr, they went 9-4. When the offense became more balanced, Herbert’s overall numbers increased, and the team went 12-2,
so what r we really arguing here?
www.nbcsports.com
