For whatever reason,Kaaya was horrible in the RZ.
Last year ,1 in 20 throws in the RZ were picked off. Outside the RZ only 1 in 160 resulted in a pick.
He was night and day in and out of the RZ. Statistically one the best in the NCAA outside the RZ and one of the worst in it.
Why? I don't know.
Kaaya has less margin in the red zone as a pure pocket passer. He's never going to extend the play and force defenders to cover an extra second or two, which is so significant in cramped quarters.
Red zone completion percentage is supposed to suffer. It's hardly a 1/1 relationship to the rest of the field. It can also vary considerably from year to year, even with the same team and same quarterback. The interception rate is vital, as you pointed out. Richt is not going to tolerate 3 red zone interceptions per year, like Kaaya managed in 2014 and 2015. Georgia threw a total of 9 red zone interceptions in the 8 seasons from 2008-2015.
Here are the Canes red zone run/pass numbers from 2008-2015, followed by Georgia's over the same period
2008: 53 runs, 54 passes
2009: 90 runs, 49 passes
2010: 80 runs, 48 passes
2011: 82 runs, 35 passes
2012: 71 runs, 67 passes
2013: 96 runs, 48 passes
2014: 68 runs, 65 passes
2015: 87 runs, 65 passes
Georgia under Richt:
2008: 73 runs, 44 passes
2009: 67 runs, 30 passes
2010: 98 runs, 56 passes
2011: 79 runs, 56 passes
2012: 77 runs, 50 passes
2013: 102 runs, 76 passes
2014: 115 runs, 55 passes
2015: 66 runs, 27 passes
***
As you can see, contrary to conventional wisdom, and some posts earlier in this thread, the Canes have not been overly run heavy in the red zone, including 3 seasons with parity or near parity -- 2008, 2012 and 2014. Richt with the basic power formations and more physical style has not had anything resembling 50/50 in a given season.
The overall numbers are Miami at 627 runs and 431 passes, for a 1.45/1 ratio. Georgia had 677 runs and 394 passes, equating to a 1.72/1 ratio. Otherwise stated, Miami ran the ball 59.3% of the time in the red zone while Georgia ran it 63.2%. Of course, Georgia has generally been the superior team during that stretch, and often by wide margin.
Odd that Georgia had so few red zone plays period in 2015, after very high numbers the prior two seasons.
Those basic formations and greater commitment to the running game should allow Kaaya to overcome his weakness in the red zone. For example, I make many wagers per season on Stanford with the gorgeous fundamental football. Kevin Hogan really ticked me off in his first season as full time starter in 2013. He missed many open receivers in the end zone, and my wagers suffered. He completed only 43%. But he bumped that steadily to 54% in 2014 and 61% in 2015. Hogan totaled 23 red zone touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions in those two seasons combined. Late last season I grudgingly had to concede that Hogan had made up for 2013. Granted, Hogan is quite athletic and can extend the play unlike Kaaya.
