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The Late Kick w/ Josh Pate (Miami Mood Tracker Edition)

CreativeCane said:
Agreed. Pate has always seems to be one of the more fair, balanced, unbiased commentators to me, regardless of team.
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I like Pate, but the guy is a master at making every fanbase like him. He says primarily good things about every team and when he does criticize a team for something he usually turns it positive at the end.
 
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CreativeCane said:
You also had an incompetent and uninterested administration then. Pretty sure the investment into the program over the last couple of years has shown we are serious now.
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It has, but with the point he was trying to make is that if you’re rival gets good it will force you to get better which would have happened 10 years ago if that was true but didn’t because of what you pointed out.
 
Do you think Bama cares or thinks about what Auburn is doing on a weekly basis?

We’ve already lost if Florida State is dictating what happens here as a program. I’d be completely shocked/disappointed if Florida state is impacting the work Miami is doing.

Motivation comes from external sources and is temporary.

Discipline comes from within and is sustainable.

That’s why what he said is dumb. I’d be shocked if Mario or Zo think like that.
 
BostonCanes47 said:
Do you think Bama cares or thinks about what Auburn is doing on a weekly basis?

We’ve already lost if Florida State is dictating what happens here as a program. I’d be completely shocked/disappointed if Florida state is impacting the work Miami is doing.

Motivation comes from external sources and is temporary.

Discipline comes from within and is sustainable.

That’s why what he said is dumb. I’d be shocked if Mario or Zo think like that.
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Miami needs to focus on Miami and WIN!

Coaches get paid to win. Specifically including their biggest rivals.
 
Angry Ibis said:
That’s their goal and they are loading up for it after a top 10 finish… stop being blind.
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Is that not everyone’s goal? They caught everyone by surprise last year, got every bounce their way, and a depleted 6-6 team they squeaked by to get 10 wins.

They’re a good team, certainly better than we are. But you can basically write 5 schools into 3 of those playoff spots right now, idk who outside of Tallahassee is betting on them for that 4th spot.
 
TC@neTC said:
Is that not everyone’s goal? They caught everyone by surprise last year, got every bounce their way, and a depleted 6-6 team they squeaked by to get 10 wins.

They’re a good team, certainly better than we are. But you can basically write 5 schools into 3 of those playoff spots right now, idk who outside of Tallahassee is betting on them for that 4th spot.
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smoked us 100. FSU is actually a playoff contender coming into the season.
 
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TC@neTC said:
Is that not everyone’s goal? They caught everyone by surprise last year, got every bounce their way, and a depleted 6-6 team they squeaked by to get 10 wins.

They’re a good team, certainly better than we are. But you can basically write 5 schools into 3 of those playoff spots right now, idk who outside of Tallahassee is betting on them for that 4th spot.
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It is everyone’s goal, they finished in the top 10 last year and loaded up in the portal to make a run. Which is likely what everyone else would do to…

Whether they are successful or not is different, they have LSU and Clemson early that may determine the season quickly.

All that is fairly accurate. Which makes people disagreeing with it a bit silly or being a homer.
 
BostonCanes47 said:
He tried arguing that Florida state being a powerhouse again is good for Miami and will force us to be better. He equated it to Alabama being good causing auburn to be good again.

Which for me is laughable. Auburn got good again because they hit a home run landing cam Newton.

Florida state was good 10 years ago and they had no bearing on what Miami did.
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not being a homer but they aren't a powerhouse until 1) they actually win again and 2) this coach learns how to recruit.
 
Angry Ibis said:
It is everyone’s goal, they finished in the top 10 last year and loaded up in the portal to make a run. Which is likely what everyone else would do to…

Whether they are successful or not is different, they have LSU and Clemson early that may determine the season quickly.

All that is fairly accurate. Which makes people disagreeing with it a bit silly or being a homer.
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OCCC finds it unlikely they’re a playoff team, as do I. I don’t think it’s homerism to think they won’t be one of top 4 teams in the country lol.
 
hoops156 said:
smoked us 100. FSU is actually a playoff contender coming into the season.
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They’re a good team no doubt. But smoking us is hardly indicative of being a playoff contender, otherwise MTSU and Duke would be as well.
 
TC@neTC said:
OCCC finds it unlikely they’re a playoff team, as do I. I don’t think it’s homerism to think they won’t be one of top 4 teams in the country lol.
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It is unlikely. But these discussions are just set up to turn into anyone saying anything positive about FSU is an FSU slurper so it’s not worth pointing out where they are in their process again…
 
Angry Ibis said:
It is unlikely. But these discussions are just set up to turn into anyone saying anything positive about FSU is an FSU slurper so it’s not worth pointing out where they are in their process again…
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Just remember if miami was returning their entire team after a 10 win season including a bowl win, a true heisman favorite at qb, favorable schedule, and added solid pieces to an already loaded team…. This fanbase would be the most obnoxious fanbase in the country.
 
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Angry Ibis said:
It is unlikely. But these discussions are just set up to turn into anyone saying anything positive about FSU is an FSU slurper so it’s not worth pointing out where they are in their process again…
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I sure haven’t called you that, and if you know youre not one, then don’t sweat someone who says that you are. Probably just semantics at the end of the day
 
It seems FSU had a relatively low % injury rate in 2022. I would expect regression to the mean there.

For the first time in his career, Jordan Travis was healthy throughout the season. If that changes, their season is doomed.

In 2022, FSU was 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less. I would expect some regression to the mean there.

[BGCOLOR=initial]They were a more or less middle third team in turnover margin (48th). I would expect that to be about the same (maybe a hair worse).[/BGCOLOR]

[BGCOLOR=initial]They finished 11th in the Final AP Poll (and 13th in the last CFB Playoff rankings).[/BGCOLOR]

[BGCOLOR=initial]Their best win last season was 1-point victory Week 0 against an LSU team with a brand new coaching staff that didn't start clicking until late in the season. This seems to be a consistent theme for FSU's 2022 season, as they seemingly played many teams at the best time to play them. Otherwise, they played 3 teams who were ranked in the top 25 at the time they played and lost to all three (Wake at home, NC State away, and Clemson at home).[/BGCOLOR]

On the balance, FSU improved its roster somewhat from last season to this season (moreso on the offensive side of the ball, IMO). That will help them.

Based on opponent's win % last season (very simplistic method) SI has their SOS at 78th in the country, with only two ACC teams (UL and Miami) behind them. That will give them a fairly easy path to success.

Overall, I expect them to have the ball (and injury breaks) bounce their way a somewhat less this season as compared to last. I expect 8 or 9 regular season wins from them (obviously less if they lose Travis for a considerable length of time)... call it an 8.5 o/u. Vegas has them a bit better at 9.5. If they win even 9 games and one of their losses is out of conference to LSU, there's a good chance they end up in the ACCCG. Then again, if they lose to LSU and Clemson, they'll be 2-2 to start the season and the wheels could come off at that point. But, even then, the schedule helps them and they get a BYE after Clemson, followed by VT, Syracuse, and Duke all at home before having to travel to Wake.

I don't discount the possibility that the 2023 FSU team competes for a playoff birth, but I don't think it's likely. I think it's more likely they finish with an 8 win regular season and a disappointed fanbase.
 
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