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The case is closed

What the rankings could (should?) look like:

6. aTm
7. Ole Miss
8. Miami
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma
11. Alabama
12. BYU

(or, if they want to be extra punitive against Ole Miss despite Lane’s thing being some bull**** and out of their control)

6. aTm
7. Miami
8. Ole Miss
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma
11. Alabama
12. BYU

This would create the path for a defensible narrative for them if Alabama loses the SECCG and BYU loses the BXIICG, with a reasonable reason to arrange the rankings this way based on metrics and H2H.

Of course, we all know this is not what we’re going to see tomorrow night, but it’s nice to dream.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I'll be the antagonist here. Through last week, Notre Dame did have the better resume. Was it close enough to where head to head should outweigh it? Obviously the committee didn't think so. But again, these are numbers from LAST WEEK, per Adam McClintock on Twitter, who I have mentioned several times on here as being the best I've ever seen at modeling the committee's rankings. He's been very, very good at it for over a decade. He is adamant that there is no "eye test", it's almost entirely data driven. And again, here are HIS NUMBERS....I have no idea what the committee uses, since so much of this is subjective. I don't think there's a definite "strength of schedule" metric, for example. Depending where you look, they're different. But again, here were his numbers, for last week:

SOS for Miami: 58
SOS for ND: 44

GC for Miami: 19.3
GC for ND: 24.0

Quality wins (I believe he defines this as teams over .500) for Miami: 3
Quality wins for ND: 5

Top 25 wins for Miami: 1
Top 25 wins for ND: 1

So, again, IF THESE ARE THE NUMBERS THEY'RE LOOKING AT, it makes sense to have ND ahead. The $1M question is, what do this past week's results do to this? He had Miami modeled at 12, and we were 12. He had ND modeled at 9, and they were 9. I do think if, somehow, we got literally next to each other, let's say ND dropped to 10 and Miami got to 11, then you make the head to head the differentiator. But apparently with 3 spots between them, the committee does not. So again, does Miami's SOS get equal to ND's with Miami playing an 8-3 Pitt and ND playing terrible Stanford? Does Miami's game control rise and get equal to NDs beating the **** out of Pitt and ND not covering against Stanford? Miami gets another quality win, ND does not. So, when you look at the 2 resumes this week, are they close enough to where you say "OK, these teams are just about the same, maybe ND is slightly higher, but Miami won, so we're going to push them ahead?"

Vegas obviously says no. We'll see what the committee says next week. But I think *THROUGH LAST WEEK* ND did have an argument that they should be ahead of Miami. But now that both resumes have the ink dried, with Miami beating Pitt even worse than ND did, are we at that point where it's close enough to make head-to-head the deciding factor? If Miami is still 12 tomorrow and ND is still 9, pack it in.
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He posted updated numbers but seems to be behind a paywall
 
All we need now is a 5,000 word count truth social post from Trump backing us.

“The seriously RETARDED playoff selection committee is the worst. The worst people, totally INCOMPETENT and CORRUPT. They rig the system with early voting to ensure the SEC and BIG are represented with MEDIOCRE teams! ALABAMA lost to a HORRIBLE FSU team! One of the WORST ever seen! Almost nobody has seen a team SO bad! They’ve been ******** over Miami FOR YEARS!…..

…. MAKE MIAMI GREAT AGAIN”
 
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terdferguson said:
How about when Auburn fumbled to end the game driving deep in Bama territory? I'm still shell shocked by the shear amount of individual plays and games that went against us.
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I’m planning to make a thread this week about the last 3 weeks and all the absolutely nonsense that went against us for future reference in case I want to eat a bullet. Frustrating doesn’t even scratch the surface.

CAM COLEMAN GO THE **** OUT OF BOUNDS BROTHER!!
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
He was god awful on Saturday. That was such a maddening game to watch.

His 2 TDs were on a screen pass that the WR took 45 yards, and a 60 yard TD where LSU literally didn't cover the kid. Total bust, there was no one within 25 yards of the receiver. Kirby Freeman completes that pass 100 times out of 100 for a TD. But before that throw, he was under 60% completions for 7 yards per attempt and 3 picks.
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There was also no safety in the middle on the screen either. And lest we forget, Van Buren took a likely running TD and turned it into an interception on 1st-and-goal from the 4.

1764626886091.png
 
NDs whole argument is we got better? Of course you got better after playing teams that weren’t as good as the ones you lost to. We shut Love down and had full control of the majority of the game. Part of why we didn’t win by 2 plus scores was bc Mario hadn’t quite learned his lesson yet on putting the foot on the gas and realizing we had a Tru frosh rb that made an impact later on that now gives us another playmaker we never used in that game.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I’m planning to make a thread this week about the last 3 weeks and all the absolutely nonsense that went against us for future reference in case I want to eat a bullet. Frustrating doesn’t even scratch the surface.

CAM COLEMAN GO THE **** OUT OF BOUNDS BROTHER!!
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How about that 4th down play where Ty Simpson did some wild scramble and somehow beat 3 auburn defenders and got the 1st down by a yard. What the **** was that?!?
 
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MizCane said:
NDs whole argument is we got better? Of course you got better after playing teams that weren’t as good as the ones you lost to. We shut Love down and had full control of the majority of the game. Part of why we didn’t win by 2 plus scores was bc Mario hadn’t quite learned his lesson yet on putting the foot on the gas and realizing we had a Tru frosh rb that made an impact later on that now gives us another playmaker we never used in that game.
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yeah this is what I think is goofy.... like yall lost to us, lost to A&M in your house then beat:

1. purdue (0-9 in the B1G, dead last, 2-10 record, 2 wins vs Ball State and Southern IL, they gave up 30 points to Purdue, the only other time purdue scored 30+? in their two wins against Ball State and SOuthern IL, Northwestern shut them out 19-0 FFS.

2. Arkansas 0-8 in the SEC, 2-10 overall, 2 wins vs Alabama A&M and AR State)

3. Boise State, 8-4 who best win is maybe Utah State? They lost to San Diego State, Fresno State and got smoke 34-7 by USF

4. NC State (7-5)

5. Boston college (2-10)

6. Syracuse (3-9)

7. Stanford (4-8)

so aside from a 9-2 Navy team, a 9-3 USC team, and 8-4 Pitt team, they played literally the worst of the worst. If they didnt look better they were dog****, they (ND) isnt total dog **** but they aint done ****
 
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rascon said:
My guess

6. TAMU
7. Ole Milss
8. ND
9. OU
10. Alabama
11. Miami
12. BYU

At this point, BYU ranking doesn’t matter. They are win and in or lose and still out so a move up to 11 for Miami is what the committee will do to “calm” the masses.

But point blank, the committee will say a team shouldn’t be dropped for losing their conference championship game, so they will protect Alabama there with a loss and you now add OU to the Miami buffer away from ND.

I could see them moving ND up in front of OM based on the coaching change, BUT they won’t move OM further down unless Alabama wins the conference championship.
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This is exactly what I think happens. They get to tell us how they moved Miami up yet again, but the "ND Cushion" still remains firmly intact and they get everything they want. This is it.
 
canesigep23 said:
Lol forget about Bama (even though I think we’re better than them). They’re the #1 seed in the SEC, absolutely zero chance the committee leaves them out even with a loss on Saturday. Imagine the uproar that would cause.
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The committee has come up with different rules for different schools. They're telling us that our bad losses are more important than our good wins, but Bama has the worst loss of any 10-2 school, yet they will not drop them. If losses mattered so much, BYU would be above every 10-2 school. They have their agenda and unfortunately, we will be a casualty of it.
 
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