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the betting line is reality

NC_Canes_11

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Jul 5, 2017
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Paddy Power in the UK is notorious for taking unusual bets. They're taking bets on whether alien life will be discovered, does that make it likely to happen?

What’s the timetable on that? Are they just taking bets and keeping people’s cash until it happens?
 

JD08

Mauderating remotely
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What’s the timetable on that? Are they just taking bets and keeping people’s cash until it happens?
Actually, I think they have it broken down by year.


This is interesting.

In 1989 a man placed an accumulator of novelty bets. He believed that Cliff Richard would be knighted before the year 2000, that U2 would remain together and continue making music past the turn of the millennium and that both EastEnders and the Australian soap Neighbours would also keep making shows past that point. When the Millennium Bug made no real difference to anyone’s life and all of those bets came true, a full eleven years after he placed them, you can imagine the man’s delight in being able to cash in on his £30 bet placed at odds of 6,479/1. He walked away with £194,400

 

lurk

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Lots of talk and opinions about who is delusional and who is not over who is winning this game.

Here are some facts based on 10 years and over 2500 games played.

A 14 point dog wins about 23 times out of 100.

I am happy we have a shot in this game whereas we did not in previous years.

I never verified it, but I was told that:

7 point dogs win 1time vs 2times (1/3rd, 33 of 100)
14 pt dogs win 1 vs 4 (1/5th, 20 of 100)
21 pt dogs win 1 vs 8 (1/9th, 11 of 100)

23 out of 100 is even better than the 20 out of 100 of the rule of thumb I was taught.

But for perspective, #5 Miami previously took on the #1 team in the Orange Bowl as a double digits underdog, where we won our first football championship.

Another Orange Bowl game, in a different million death pandemic, an 18 point dog (Jets) beat the Colts and their all-time great QB by 9 during the worst part of the Hong Kong flu






 

NCCanefan

Freshman
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Aug 2, 2019
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110
The fans who believe we will beat Clemson on the road are appreciated but delusional. Their attention to detail is exceptional and has been for the last half decade. It is exactly the type of opponent that will expose our weaknesses that we've been able to mask so far to the fullest. Outside of Bolden we are not a good tackling team and our offensive line while much improved is just not at the level we need them to be. Having staff members like Blake Baker and Scott Patke on staff will be very visible and the difference of the game. FSU and Loserville had defenses that were atrocious and it's easy to get overly excited about our much improved offense. The offense should be able to move the ball on Saturday and it's the consistency of that movement that will keep us in the game or not. To close, we will witness the gap between our solid offensive staff to our not so solid defensive staff in a game of this magnitude. Vegas has them as a two touchdown favorite for a reason and this is why.
You have it partially right. Clemson is a 14 point favorite for a reason. But, a 14 point favorite loses about 15% of the time. No reason that can't be Saturday night.
 

NC_Canes_11

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Actually, I think they have it broken down by year.


This is interesting.

In 1989 a man placed an accumulator of novelty bets. He believed that Cliff Richard would be knighted before the year 2000, that U2 would remain together and continue making music past the turn of the millennium and that both EastEnders and the Australian soap Neighbours would also keep making shows past that point. When the Millennium Bug made no real difference to anyone’s life and all of those bets came true, a full eleven years after he placed them, you can imagine the man’s delight in being able to cash in on his £30 bet placed at odds of 6,479/1. He walked away with £194,400


Hell yea that’s wild
 

TheEye

Cane Grad!
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Feb 12, 2013
Messages
5,737
Here's the reality. We need MORE games like this one. Miami needs to face the best on a regular basis. It's what the program was built on. Miami used to be every major program's cupcake team. If we lose, fine. We lost a lot in the 70's and early 80s too. However, without a game like Clemson, we will always be making victory runs after wins like UAB, UL and FSU.
 

DTP

Section 102
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Dec 30, 2015
Messages
9,171
Lots of talk and opinions about who is delusional and who is not over who is winning this game.

Here are some facts based on 10 years and over 2500 games played.

A 14 point dog wins about 23 times out of 100.

I am happy we have a shot in this game whereas we did not in previous years.
I’m pretty sure everyone understands that Miami beating Clemson would be a pretty big upset. I just don’t think it’s “delusional” to think Miami can win this game. Delusional would be assuming a win by a large margin. Regardless, I’d rather be delusional and hope my team wins than wave the forfeit flag before the game even starts.
 

streetja

Please fire me
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Dec 28, 2012
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Blake Baker and Rumph’s recruiting will hold us back against real competition until proven otherwise
 

iCaneOX

8th year Senior
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Apr 13, 2013
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458
Where’s all the sunshine pumpers telling us we are bad fans because we knew what was coming?

Being realistic with expectations has nothing do with being “scared” to play Clemson. This team has improved but is nowhere near a top 10 team
 

LoungeLord

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Nov 5, 2011
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there are only 2 teams in all of college football that are undefeated W-L & undefeated against the spread...
MIAMI (and BYU)
for context, Clemson is 0-3 against the spread.

Miami has played better than Vegas thinks they are & Clemson isn't as good as Vegas thinks they are.
This take didn’t hold up well
 

LoungeLord

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Any team has to play near perfect to beat the top teams and that applies when they play each other. If you mean that Miami's chances hinge on whether Clemson plays sloppy, I think you are wrong. I pointed out in another thread how Miami can plausibly win a shootout against Clemson and it doesn't require a lot of luck, sloppiness, or catching Clemson snoozing. It comes down to pace and TOP. If Miami plays defense straight up without blitzes, I believe the front 4 are talented enough to pressure TL. Avoid giving up the big plays. Make Clemson earn each yard, and if we can force them into drives lasting 6-7 minutes, that is a win. On the flip side, Miami has to move at warp speed and score with 3-4 minute drives. Over the course of the game, that should result in at least one extra possession per quarter for Miami. The defense is going to give up lots of yards, LSU's D gave up 400+. That's fine. As long as the D forces Clemson to kick a few field goals instead of scoring TDs, those extra possessions will add up. Let's say Miami has 4 more possessions in the game and scores a field goal and a TD. The defense forces a couple FGs instead of giving up TDs. Miami has a 4 point advantage, and that is without the offense being perfect (only scoring 1 TD in those 4 extra chances). I think your assessment would have been correct if we rolled into this game with Enos as OC and Williams as QB. Fortunately we are much better now and have a bit more margin for error because the game plan isn't based on the Miami defense shutting down the Clemson offense.
And none of that happened
 
Joined
Oct 12, 2020
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That’s true
My point was more to show that they have been beaten before by teams that were far worse than ours
And our advantage this year is the half empty stadium the home field advantage won’t be the same this year
Last Clemson regular season loss in 2017 was on the road on Friday the 13th with their starting QB and starting kicker out. They missed 2 easy FG's and lost by 3 points. Lol so in reality, they haven't lost a regular season game since 2016 pitt at home. It happens to ohio state and bama more often than Clemson.
 
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