TAMU Defensive Strengths and Opportunities

[LuCane]

Created this to hopefully spark some conversation from people who know them better and others who want to research along with me for the remainder of the week.

I'll start by stating I haven't watched them too much. 2 games (one against Sam Houston and a strange one against App state) this season and about 2 games last season don't combine to make a sufficient sample size.

I did watch last week's App State game twice already and, yes, App State had a very specific plan of attack and controlled the ball, obviously.

But, I think TAMU's defensive issues have been somewhat overblown here and on Twitter.

App State ran 82 plays for 315 yards. At less than 4 yards per play overall, we're not exactly talking about a defensive meltdown. Specifically, they only averaged 3.5 yards/rush. Now, I will concede App state was almost shockingly efficient on 3rd down by converting 9 out of 20 (!). That alone should tell you it was a weird game. It also didn't help that TAMU's offense ran a TOTAL of 38 plays.

Let's take a look at their "depth chart" (I'm using this screenshot because it's an easy format to work with, but seems out of date):

Some initial notes:

- For those of you wondering what they ask their front to do, think of the opposite of a Manny Diaz front. They're not that kind of free-wheeling wildness.

- To me, the DL player who stood out the most from the App State game was Adeleye. Strong dude who may get matched up with Scaife.

- While the above depth chart has two guys above him, the Regis kid appeared to make an impact at NT. Their NTs vs Clark is something to watch.

- Didn't see Walter Nolen (the bigtime recruit) at all, only to realize later he was apparently out for the game. Not sure if he'll be back, but he played in their 1st game.

- Looking over how TAMU likes to run their fronts and match it up with certain coverages, I think TVD will have some opportunities to move his feet and run. I've long said he appears to be 10x the QB after he RUNS for a 1st down (at least last year).

- With a decent deal of 3 down linemen and a standup player, I think everyone will look toward what we bring in the run game. Last week, we saw some sprinkle of zone scheme. I think anyone who watches the lines expects us to run more misdirection this game.

- I've mentioned elsewhere we've basically turned Elijah Arroyo into Fred Baxter circa 1998 - moving across the formation, wham blocks, etc. I hope to see him come across the formation and sent to the edges (or, G-d willing, downfield), but TAMU has some athletes at LB (Cooper) and Safety.

Look forward to the discussion.

 

[Invalid Username]

They had a few injuries on the defense in the 2H of the app game. Not sure what that status is. I thought one was Adeleye.

 

[Rod Is Godly]

The A&M defense isn’t necessarily terrible, but when the offense can’t do ANYTHING, the defense is going to wear down eventually. Few defensive units can play at the same intensity for 45 minutes of a game.

I strongly believe the best attack to their defense would be to make sure our defense can get their offense off the field as quickly as possible every single possession.

 

[TriStarCane]

I don’t see a sustainable blue print with what App St did. Lots of outliers in this game, most notably 40 min TOP for App St, 3/5 on 4th down and 2 TO with a missed FG to win. Expect them to show positive regression with getting off the field.

 

[ben]

Big #37 is gonna catch a touchdown this weekend

 

[JHallCanes]

I just feel like this game is one where we can almost throw out the first two games each team has played

I dunno. Not that “nothing” can be gleaned from the first two weeks but I expect to see a very good team line up against us on Saturday. Not a lesser team that we make look good…but a completely different Miami than the SMU game, and a completely different A&M team that played App St

Could be way off but I’ve watched enough college football by now to know this is how it plays out

Not trying to discredit this awesome thread and post @LuCane of course

I can’t ******* wait for Saturday

 

[305407cane]

The A&M defense isn’t necessarily terrible, but when the offense can’t do ANYTHING, the defense is going to wear down eventually. Few defensive units can play at the same intensity for 45 minutes of a game.

I strongly believe the best attack to their defense would be to make sure our defense can get their offense off the field as quickly as possible every single possession.

Also the defense will get frustrated when the offense sucks so bad

 

[LuCane]

Here's how they played one third down (if my notes are correct). Late Safety blitz was well-timed. Forced the App State OL to communicate and it broke down.



Here's how they lined up for a 3rd and relatively short. 3 down linemen. They also went 4 down linemen in a similar situation.

 

[LuCane]

I just feel like this game is one where we can almost throw out the first two games each team has played

I dunno. Not that “nothing” can be gleaned from the first two weeks but I expect to see a very good team line up against us on Saturday. Not a lesser team that we make look good…but a completely different Miami than the SMU game, and a completely different A&M team that played App St

Could be way off but I’ve watched enough college football by now to know this is how it plays out

Not trying to discredit this awesome thread and post @LuCane of course

I can’t ******* wait for Saturday

I tend to agree with you, generally. I think there's some we can at least glean off what their players have shown and *some* of their alignments. But, yeah, I think it's a totally different type of game and I don't expect to see the TAMU we saw against App St.

 

[Gi0logy]

I don’t see a sustainable blue print with what App St did. Lots of outliers in this game, most notably 40 min TOP for App St, 3/5 on 4th down and 2 TO with a missed FG to win. Expect them to show positive regression with getting off the field.

All of this. IMO this is going to be a wildly different game compared to App State game.

Something along the lines of either team needing ~30 points to win.

 

[DC3]

"Cornerback Jaylon Jones, defensive lineman McKinnley Jackson and defensive lineman Walter Nolen were all expected to return to practice."

From an article I online. Also one of their best OL from last year Bryce Foster is back practicing after missing both games so wonder if he will be thrown into the fire on Saturday as well.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I posted it in another thread, but check out Bill Connelly's advanced box score on the App State game. When I get a minute, I'll link it here, but it's on his Twitter. App State had a 22% postgame win expectancy. What they did is not any kind of sustainable blueprint, specifically their offense. And remember, this offense just torched UNC the week before. So I think anyone underestimating A&M's defense is incredibly misinformed. They're better up front than we are on the offensive line. We couldn't block Southern Miss last week, now here comes waves of 4 and 5 stars, who are ****ed off and playing in front of the biggest crowd in the history of Kyle Field.

I still think we can absolutely win this game because we have the far superior quarterback, but if there are any of you out there saying "Well App State beat them, how good can they be?" I implore you to watch the game and check out the advanced metrics. App State averaged 3.8 yards per play, they had a 38% success rate (terrible) and a 3.7% explosive play rate (very terrible). Meaning, they got VERY lucky that they were able to sustain drives with such a low output per play and virtually no explosive plays. It was the literal definition of 3 yards and a cloud of dust. App State won the game because they were able to convert a lot of short 3rd and 4th downs, which again isn't incredibly sustainable, and the A&M offense is terrible. They also won the turnover battle, 2-0. So yes, if you can guarantee me that A&M will turn it over twice, we won't turn it over at all, and we'll be able to convert almost 50% of our 3rd downs and multiple 4th downs, then I'll agree with you that we can do what App State did on offense and win. But I don't think that's very realistic. Meaning our offense is going to need to be efficient against a very nasty defense, especially in the secondary (hello, receivers?). The total in this game is 48. That's very, very low for a college football game featuring ranked teams. I don't think we can sniff 30 points without help from the A&M offense, but if we do, I think we win going away. I just don't see that offense exploding. Expect a hard-fought, low scoring game. If we get through the 1st quarter and TVD is still upright and we have some decent rushing numbers, we're gonna win. If we see 2020 Clemson all over again, where the QB is on his *** before he hits his back foot and we can't open a crack, nevermind a hole, it's gonna be a long night.

 

[CTCanes]

I just feel like this game is one where we can almost throw out the first two games each team has played

I dunno. Not that “nothing” can be gleaned from the first two weeks but I expect to see a very good team line up against us on Saturday. Not a lesser team that we make look good…but a completely different Miami than the SMU game, and a completely different A&M team that played App St

Could be way off but I’ve watched enough college football by now to know this is how it plays out

Not trying to discredit this awesome thread and post @LuCane of course

I can’t ******* wait for Saturday

Agree here. Also agree on great thread. As pointed out too many times to count, I would love a win (obviously), but I am looking for us to look the part this Saturday - prepared, not overwhelmed, and in the game. Too many years have gone by (Since ND/VT 2017) where when the lights get the brightest we crap our pants.

 

[#1cane]

Created this to hopefully spark some conversation from people who know them better and others who want to research along with me for the remainder of the week.

I'll start by stating I haven't watched them too much. 2 games (one against Sam Houston and a strange one against App state) this season and about 2 games last season don't combine to make a sufficient sample size.

I did watch last week's App State game twice already and, yes, App State had a very specific plan of attack and controlled the ball, obviously.

But, I think TAMU's defensive issues have been somewhat overblown here and on Twitter.

App State ran 82 plays for 315 yards. At less than 4 yards per play overall, we're not exactly talking about a defensive meltdown. Specifically, they only averaged 3.5 yards/rush. Now, I will concede App state was almost shockingly efficient on 3rd down by converting 9 out of 20 (!). That alone should tell you it was a weird game. It also didn't help that TAMU's offense ran a TOTAL of 38 plays.

Let's take a look at their "depth chart" (I'm using this screenshot because it's an easy format to work with, but seems out of date):

View attachment 207896

Some initial notes:

- For those of you wondering what they ask their front to do, think of the opposite of a Manny Diaz front. They're not that kind of free-wheeling wildness.

- To me, the DL player who stood out the most from the App State game was Adeleye. Strong dude who may get matched up with Scaife.

- While the above depth chart has two guys above him, the Regis kid appeared to make an impact at NT. Their NTs vs Clark is something to watch.

- Didn't see Walter Nolen (the bigtime recruit) at all, only to realize later he was apparently out for the game. Not sure if he'll be back, but he played in their 1st game.

- Looking over how TAMU likes to run their fronts and match it up with certain coverages, I think TVD will have some opportunities to move his feet and run. I've long said he appears to be 10x the QB after he RUNS for a 1st down (at least last year).

- With a decent deal of 3 down linemen and a standup player, I think everyone will look toward what we bring in the run game. Last week, we saw some sprinkle of zone scheme. I think anyone who watches the lines expects us to run more misdirection this game.

- I've mentioned elsewhere we've basically turned Elijah Arroyo into Fred Baxter circa 1998 - moving across the formation, wham blocks, etc. I hope to see him come across the formation and sent to the edges (or, G-d willing, downfield), but TAMU has some athletes at LB (Cooper) and Safety.

Look forward to the discussion.

I just read A&M gets 6 players back for this game. Two on offense one being their starting center and a TE. Four on defense one being Nolan another D lineman a CB and middle LB. So help is on the way for them.

 

[JHallCanes]

I tend to agree with you, generally. I think there's some we can at least glean off what their players have shown and *some* of their alignments. But, yeah, I think it's a totally different type of game and I don't expect to see the TAMU we saw against App St.

I think on our defense I’m really looking forward to this

We haven’t shown much, but one thing we’ve seen is Steele moving James Williams around and Williams responding making plays he wasn’t making last year. Inferior comp yes, but he’s in different spots this year

I expect him to be a big reason if we do pull off the win

 

[JHallCanes]

Agree here. Also agree on great thread. As pointed out too many times to count, I would love a win (obviously), but I am looking for us to look the part this Saturday - prepared, not overwhelmed, and in the game. Too many years have gone by (Since ND/VT 2017) where when the lights get the brightest we crap our pants.

Yessir

I’m not concerned with losing necessarily….but if we do lose I want to see HOW we lose

We’ve taken these games on the chin lying down for too long now. It’s one thing to lose a game on talent, but we’ve been absurdly outcoached, outschemed, and outclassed in these types of games

 

[DTP]

I’ve watched both their games and their defense is legit. Especially the guys up front. Although it’s hard to say how great they are playing against two outmatched offensive lines. If you look strictly at the numbers from the App game, you’d have a hard time believing they lost. I’m curious what percentage of teams hold an opponent to under 4 yards per play and still lose. It’s got to be <5%. The idea that App State set the formula for how to defeat them is nonsense. Their offense is trash so playing keep away isn’t really that beneficial. I’m in the camp that if we can score early, we can put the game away. This might be a race to 21 points.

 

[UMFarArcher]

All of this. IMO this is going to be a wildly different game compared to App State game.

Something along the lines of either team needing ~30 points to win.

That was one of the questions I was going to ask.

How many points do we need to win?

And if it's above 30, it's going to take a lot more than a long string of run-three-up-the-middles.

Lord, I hope we don't come out flat for the first half! Need to smack them in the mouth - and keep smacking.

 

[HOLISTIC CANE]

Their overall team morale is going to be down. How can it not be after the latest hit their team just took. Miami have to capitalize on this early. It doesn’t matter if it’s the defense or the offense that gets it started. Just do it early in the game. Score first, put their foot on their throats and don’t let up until the end of the 4th quarter.

For me, it starts there and I think they’re ripe for the pickins regardless of national ranks. IMO

 

[TheProf]

Their defense should get zero blame for their loss last week. Their defense is strong and I do wonder how much better they will be getting some guys back this week. One thing I feel we can potentially take advantage of is the youth along their DL. They have talent on the line, but it is young and inconsistent. I want to see our OL step up to the challenge. The opportunity is there.

I don't feel I have a good feel on their secondary after watching the two games, but I do feel there defense can be exploited with some boot action, especially if we get the running game going just enough to where they have to respect it. App State was able to slide their TE across on some PA plays and get some easy completions that way and if I remember right they scored a TD using that concept.