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TAMU Defensive Strengths and Opportunities

JHallCanes said:
I just feel like this game is one where we can almost throw out the first two games each team has played

I dunno. Not that “nothing” can be gleaned from the first two weeks but I expect to see a very good team line up against us on Saturday. Not a lesser team that we make look good…but a completely different Miami than the SMU game, and a completely different A&M team that played App St

Could be way off but I’ve watched enough college football by now to know this is how it plays out

Not trying to discredit this awesome thread and post @LuCane of course

I can’t ******* wait for Saturday
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I couldn’t agree more with your opening sentence. I really don’t know how there going to respond after App state, but what I do think we can confirm is Miami definitely has a shot. Pre season I thought this game would be extremely difficult to win week 3 with a new coach in the first big game. Now I think it’s really a toss up from the outside looking in. It’s Mario’s time to out coach jimbo and hopefully pick up his first signature win.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
I posted it in another thread, but check out Bill Connelly's advanced box score on the App State game. When I get a minute, I'll link it here, but it's on his Twitter. App State had a 22% postgame win expectancy. What they did is not any kind of sustainable blueprint, specifically their offense. And remember, this offense just torched UNC the week before. So I think anyone underestimating A&M's defense is incredibly misinformed. They're better up front than we are on the offensive line. We couldn't block Southern Miss last week, now here comes waves of 4 and 5 stars, who are ****ed off and playing in front of the biggest crowd in the history of Kyle Field.

I still think we can absolutely win this game because we have the far superior quarterback, but if there are any of you out there saying "Well App State beat them, how good can they be?" I implore you to watch the game and check out the advanced metrics. App State averaged 3.8 yards per play, they had a 38% success rate (terrible) and a 3.7% explosive play rate (very terrible). Meaning, they got VERY lucky that they were able to sustain drives with such a low output per play and virtually no explosive plays. It was the literal definition of 3 yards and a cloud of dust. App State won the game because they were able to convert a lot of short 3rd and 4th downs, which again isn't incredibly sustainable, and the A&M offense is terrible. They also won the turnover battle, 2-0. So yes, if you can guarantee me that A&M will turn it over twice, we won't turn it over at all, and we'll be able to convert almost 50% of our 3rd downs and multiple 4th downs, then I'll agree with you that we can do what App State did on offense and win. But I don't think that's very realistic. Meaning our offense is going to need to be efficient against a very nasty defense, especially in the secondary (hello, receivers?). The total in this game is 48. That's very, very low for a college football game featuring ranked teams. I don't think we can sniff 30 points without help from the A&M offense, but if we do, I think we win going away. I just don't see that offense exploding. Expect a hard-fought, low scoring game. If we get through the 1st quarter and TVD is still upright and we have some decent rushing numbers, we're gonna win. If we see 2020 Clemson all over again, where the QB is on his *** before he hits his back foot and we can't open a crack, nevermind a hole, it's gonna be a long night.
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The game plan comes down to this
If Flagg and Ivey see majority of the snaps that offense and qb will look all world and it won’t matter what our offense does
This game has to be won by shutting them down first and foremost and hope that tvd can make a few plays that puts him in the heisman discussion
 
jsy said:
The game plan comes down to this
If Flagg and Ivey see majority of the snaps that offense and qb will look all world and it won’t matter what our offense does
This game has to be won by shutting them down first and foremost and hope that tvd can make a few plays that puts him in the heisman discussion
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Y’all are so hung up on these 2 dudes man, it’s wild.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
So why have 3 different defensive coordinators and multiple DB coaches started Ivey? Cause someone behind him is better but none of them know what they're doing?
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It’s a mystery
That I wish I had the answer for
But all I know for sure is I have seen them make more game losing plays than game winning ones
 
I think this game ultimately comes down to our defense shutting them down
I think we can get to 20
I don’t know if they can if we play well
The first quarter we can not fall behind
A opening Keyshawn house call would be epic
 
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If we don't dominate from the beginning, I am afraid that this might turn to be like the ND bludgeoning at Hard Rock and few years ago with the home crowd going crazy and taking over the game
 
Put up points early..allow no explosive runs QB/6 and coverage units have to be on point. Will Mallory/Arroyo have to show up..This is still the toughest test we will face when it comes to pure talent on the other side
 
LuCane said:
I tend to agree with you, generally. I think there's some we can at least glean off what their players have shown and *some* of their alignments. But, yeah, I think it's a totally different type of game and I don't expect to see the TAMU we saw against App St.
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Looked like USM had a good plan that involved stunts, delayed blitz, etc. that cause miscommunication among the O-line. You see A&M doing more of that? Unsure of stats, but it seemed like TVD did not operate well under duress against USM. Wonder if Gattis & Co. will dial up more quick outs w/ Knighton back and Brashard getting warmed up (it felt like) last week. Multiple TEs for extra blocking + quick outs. Maybe that's money this weekend...

And hope to see Williams in the box even more this weekend as a QB spy, if nothing else. Idk if Flagg has the athleticism to keep up w/ King
 
All the attention goes to their DLine, but their Secondary IMO is equally as strong as a unit.

Antonio Johnson, Jardin Gilbert, Tyreek Chappell & Demani Richardson are physical group who do very well in coverage & are active in coming down in the box for run support. Our WR’s will have their hands full getting open against this group, this is a major litmus test for them to see if they’re up to par.

All the focus seems to be on us trying to run our way to victory, but whether people believe it or not, our WR’s/TE’s are gonna have to win some one on one matchups if we wanna score & keep us from looking at stacked 7-8 man box fronts.

Since we’ve been holding back the playbook, then this is game to open up the chapters towards to the backend of the book & put some intricate play-calling on display; I suspect we’ll have to scheme some of our guys open & it’ll be something to watch how we decide to move the ball down the field & what approach is taken on 3rd downs.

This is the game to unleash Arroyo, Mallory, Skinner etc.. our TE’s will be needed to do more than just block.

I also think it would behoove the Offense to have a significant amount of 11 & 02 personnel where Restrepo, Brashard, Arroyo & Keyshawn are all on the field at the same time.

And for the love of God, give TVD some rhythm 5/6 route throws to the Boundary to get him comfortable early.
 
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Liberty City El said:
All the attention goes to their DLine, but their Secondary IMO is equally as strong as a unit.

Antonio Johnson, Jardin Gilbert, Tyreek Chappell & Demani Richardson are physical group who do very well in coverage & are active in coming down in the box for run support. Our WR’s will have their hands full getting open against this group, this is a major litmus test for them to see if they’re up to par.

All the focus seems to be on us trying to run our way to victory, but whether people believe it or not, our WR’s/TE’s are gonna have to win some one on one matchups if we wanna score & keep us from looking at stacked 7-8 man box fronts.

Since we’ve been holding back the playbook, then this is game to open up the chapters towards to the backend of the book & put some intricate play-calling on display; I suspect we’ll have to scheme some of our guys open & it’ll be something to watch how we decide to move the ball down the field & what approach is taken on 3rd downs.

This is the game to unleash Arroyo, Mallory, Skinner etc.. our TE’s will be needed to do more than just block.

I also think it would behoove the Offense to have a significant amount of 11 & 2 personnel where Restrepo, Brashard, Arroyo & Keyshawn are all on the field at the same time.

And for the love of God, give TVD some rhythm 5/6 route throws to the Boundary to get him comfortable early.
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I’m going to go back and watch the OSU / Michigan game from last year. I suspect Gattis may lean into some of the things that worked against that athletic OSU defense. Even though they were a little soft last year
 
Gocanes1990 said:
I’m going to go back and watch the OSU / Michigan game from last year. I suspect Gattis may lean into some of the things that worked against that athletic OSU defense. Even though they were a little soft last year
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If we rely on that approach, I think we’ll be in trouble. Michigan ran 2x as much as they passed the ball. Their top two rushers ran for 256 yards on 34 rushes for an average of 7.5/carry. Those two backs had long runs of 55 and 27 yards.

They absolutely gashed OSU. If we do that to TAMU, I will learn how to do cartwheels and do them all the way from my house to the church on UM’s campus. Michigan’s QB threw the ball 19 times. No TDs; one INT.

In no way am I saying abandon the run. But, I’m not sure we can duplicate that plan against TAMU. Like I said in the OP, young pups or not, that DL wasn’t exactly getting gashed by App State.
 
LuCane said:
If we rely on that approach, I think we’ll be in trouble. Michigan ran 2x as much as they passed the ball. Their top two rushers ran for 256 yards on 34 rushes for an average of 7.5/carry. Those two backs had long runs of 55 and 27 yards.

They absolutely gashed OSU. If we do that to TAMU, I will learn how to do cartwheels and do them all the way from my house to the church on UM’s campus. Michigan’s QB threw the ball 19 times. No TDs; one INT.

In no way am I saying abandon the run. But, I’m not sure we can duplicate that plan against TAMU. Like I said in the OP, young pups or not, that DL wasn’t exactly getting gashed by App State.
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@LuCane you're totally right. I was more referencing passing plays. IIRC they had some great 3rd down calls to the TES
 
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