Strange line movement

[Awsi Dooger]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

This

No, actually this is wholly inaccurate. "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" is the biggest myth ever, somehow perpetuated over time by people without a clue. If a bookmaker's bankroll is sufficient, why would he move a number that has attracted an inordinate amount of money from huge squares? Bookmakers view each game as an independent event. Savvy bookmakers with large enough bankrolls view each game as just one part of a larger series. The bookmaker will win exactly 50% of those imbalanced games, and therefore it plays out mathematically as though every game had balanced action. However, by not moving the pointspread, the bookmaker earns himself 4-5x the profit (vig) than by employing the foolish strategy of trying to get equal money on both sides.

Your way (with a 2 game scenario):
Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Your way suggests it is smart for the bookmaker to call of $80k of action and guarantee himself $1k profit in vig.

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

Your way again suggests calling off $80,000 (80% of your action!) in order to guarantee yourself $1k in profit. According to your way, the bookmaker/Vegas has zero risk and guarantees itself a grant total of $2k profit on a $220k, a hold of just 1%.

The sharp bookmaker's way, given a large enough bankroll:

Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

The mathematically savvy bookmaker keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the games regardless of how heavy or imbalanced the action is. He splits here, losing $79k on the Bama game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Bama and Bama wins by 5 or more, so the bookmaker pays out $90k, but collects $10k plus $1k in vig from Auburn bettors] and winning $89k on the Miami game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Pitt and Pitt gets blown out by Miami, so the bookmaker nets $90k + $9k vig - $10k], for a net profit of $10k on $220k of action [-$79k + $89k], including vig (a net hold of 4.54%).

Numbers don't lie, forget that "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" nonsense. It's right up there with "Santa Claus is real".

Hey, is this Poptimus Prime from Canesport?

Has to be, based on caliber of writing and caliber of argument, at least 20x what I experience here on this topic.

If so, welcome to the board. This forum has lots of passionate fans and often astute football analysis. The betting discussion is just a wee bit outside. Often hilarious. Yes, they are stuck in that conventional wisdom mode of bookmakers desperate to balance the action, so they'll win either way. Nothing I post or that you post is going to shake that belief. Apparently there are posters here who were together on another Canes board dating 15 years or more, and somehow they found that "balanced action" myth and have happily toted it around ever since. The only one I'm disappointed in is Cribby. He was on Canesport a decade or more ago along with us, and would have seen all the related posts.

And BTW, if you shoot down conventional wisdom be prepared for a handful of guys here to follow you around and downvote every post. They actually believe it has any semblance of meaning, other than to make themselves look desperate and pathetic.

Anyway, as Poptimus correctly pointed out earlier in this thread, you never want the late money to be significant against your side, especially in college sports. That is the sharp money circulated by one or more of the major betting groups. They allow the number to settle all week and then pound it in the late going.

Nobody is claiming those groups hit a huge percentage. They win more often than not. On sites like this everyone is fixated on the lines involving their team, as if it has some surreal significance. In the real betting world both sides of the counter are tracking multiple sports every day and dozens and dozens of decisions. That's why they can't spend much time or subjective thought on any one of them. It is a steady grind of volume and an edge. The oddsmakers use blended power ratings to hang a number, and then sit back and see where the bettors take it. The sharp guys evaluate where their angles and/or subjective focus differs most strongly from those power rating-generated numbers, and then attack those supposedly most vulnerable numbers. Nobody particularly cares about any one outcome, unlike here or other fan sites. In Las Vegas it's rinse and repeat the next day, with a new set of variables.

Early money is important but that is primarily a handful of wise guys who the books respect most. Those guys play into the opening numbers because they feel the number is likely to move in their direction. They always want to be sitting there with the best number that ever existed on the game. I respect those early moves but after living full time in Las Vegas for 25 years it eventually became evident that the late money was more significant toward the outcome. I don't always know who they are or why they played that specific team or over/under, but let's put it this way -- I always hope the late 1.5+ point move is in my direction, not against me.

 

[BoxingRobes]

This is the type of thread that really shows people's *** on here.

**** like line movement and where sharps are heavy are not tell alls, but they are some indicators that you need to pay attention to.

The same people who scoff at these types of discussions are often the same fans that scoff at more complex statistical discussion. Its always "that **** doesn't matter" or "yeaaaa but!" with some whataboutism that brings up an exception.

I was on high alert all week for this game and I saw the line movement and just sat in a corner. After the first half...I knew what was comin'.

There has been a few keynote games this year with some quirky late line movement, and they've all ended up hitting. LSU-Florida. Miami-VirginiaTech. And now this game. There are a few others that hit as well, but these these are some of the most notable ones that are pertinent to this discussion.

 

[g8rh8rMD]

I’m super worried about this game. First road game in practically a month. At noon the day after Thanksgiving. Against a team everyone in the world is overlooking and assuming we beat. Wish I could say I disagreed with the action betting the line down.

Go ahead and neg, my fear level is high right now.

No you're just a ******.. nothing wrong with that..

FUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGCCKKKKKKKK!!!!!

Take the Canes against whatever spread we get vs. Clemp's Son for the legal limit. ****, take the $$$ line. We smoke them. Book it.

We saw exactly what I expected to see today. Doesn't change my love for this team, nor my objective as possible (given orange and green glasses) opinion that they can beat any team in the country when properly aroused and prepared.

 

[DerekDohrman]

how many other times this year was the line movement wrong?

and by the way, we didnt win by 12 or whatever it was

 

[BoxingRobes]

how many other times this year was the line movement wrong?

and by the way, we didnt win by 12 or whatever it was

The two times the line moved dramatically against Canes after Thursday, they didn't cover.

v. Bethune...line dropped 5pts by Kickoff, Bethune covered.
v. Toledo...line never really moved by more then a half point, Miami covered.
v. Duke...again, line never really moved by more then a half point, Miami covered.
v. FSU...again, line never really moved by more then a half point, Miami covered.
v. GaTech...a few books had a line move 1.5pts to Miami, a few books kept it within a half point, Georgia Tech covered.
v. Syracuse...jumped 4pts over the week, but only a point after Thursday (see Awsi Dooger's post for early line movement), Cuse covered.
v. UNC...only a half point movement all week. UNC covered.
v. VaTech...line flipped by Friday, Miami covered.
v. Notre Dame...line didn't move much, Miami covered.
v. Virginia...only a point swing early, Virginia covered.
v. Pitt...see this thread, Pitt covered.

The three games Miami saw some significant line movement after Thursday were notable. Bethune covered, Miami covered against VaTech, and Pitt covered. The latter two games saw what were early in the week "upsets".

So...as it pertains to this thread...late "significant" line movement hasn't really been wrong in regards to Miami this year.

 

[BiltmoreCANE]

Serious question here, some people said a line movement this significant usually means an injury to a QB. Malik was really off but by all accounts not injured. So why the late movement? How did the sharps know we would play bad?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Poptimus]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

This

No, actually this is wholly inaccurate. "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" is the biggest myth ever, somehow perpetuated over time by people without a clue. If a bookmaker's bankroll is sufficient, why would he move a number that has attracted an inordinate amount of money from huge squares? Bookmakers view each game as an independent event. Savvy bookmakers with large enough bankrolls view each game as just one part of a larger series. The bookmaker will win exactly 50% of those imbalanced games, and therefore it plays out mathematically as though every game had balanced action. However, by not moving the pointspread, the bookmaker earns himself 4-5x the profit (vig) than by employing the foolish strategy of trying to get equal money on both sides.

Your way (with a 2 game scenario):
Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Your way suggests it is smart for the bookmaker to call of $80k of action and guarantee himself $1k profit in vig.

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

Your way again suggests calling off $80,000 (80% of your action!) in order to guarantee yourself $1k in profit. According to your way, the bookmaker/Vegas has zero risk and guarantees itself a grant total of $2k profit on a $220k, a hold of just 1%.

The sharp bookmaker's way, given a large enough bankroll:

Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

The mathematically savvy bookmaker keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the games regardless of how heavy or imbalanced the action is. He splits here, losing $79k on the Bama game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Bama and Bama wins by 5 or more, so the bookmaker pays out $90k, but collects $10k plus $1k in vig from Auburn bettors] and winning $89k on the Miami game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Pitt and Pitt gets blown out by Miami, so the bookmaker nets $90k + $9k vig - $10k], for a net profit of $10k on $220k of action [-$79k + $89k], including vig (a net hold of 4.54%).

Numbers don't lie, forget that "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" nonsense. It's right up there with "Santa Claus is real".

Hey, is this Poptimus Prime from Canesport?

Has to be, based on caliber of writing and caliber of argument, at least 20x what I experience here on this topic.

If so, welcome to the board. This forum has lots of passionate fans and often astute football analysis. The betting discussion is just a wee bit outside. Often hilarious. Yes, they are stuck in that conventional wisdom mode of bookmakers desperate to balance the action, so they'll win either way. Nothing I post or that you post is going to shake that belief. Apparently there are posters here who were together on another Canes board dating 15 years or more, and somehow they found that "balanced action" myth and have happily toted it around ever since. The only one I'm disappointed in is Cribby. He was on Canesport a decade or more ago along with us, and would have seen all the related posts.

And BTW, if you shoot down conventional wisdom be prepared for a handful of guys here to follow you around and downvote every post. They actually believe it has any semblance of meaning, other than to make themselves look desperate and pathetic.

Anyway, as Poptimus correctly pointed out earlier in this thread, you never want the late money to be significant against your side, especially in college sports. That is the sharp money circulated by one or more of the major betting groups. They allow the number to settle all week and then pound it in the late going.

Nobody is claiming those groups hit a huge percentage. They win more often than not. On sites like this everyone is fixated on the lines involving their team, as if it has some surreal significance. In the real betting world both sides of the counter are tracking multiple sports every day and dozens and dozens of decisions. That's why they can't spend much time or subjective thought on any one of them. It is a steady grind of volume and an edge. The oddsmakers use blended power ratings to hang a number, and then sit back and see where the bettors take it. The sharp guys evaluate where their angles and/or subjective focus differs most strongly from those power rating-generated numbers, and then attack those supposedly most vulnerable numbers. Nobody particularly cares about any one outcome, unlike here or other fan sites. In Las Vegas it's rinse and repeat the next day, with a new set of variables.

Early money is important but that is primarily a handful of wise guys who the books respect most. Those guys play into the opening numbers because they feel the number is likely to move in their direction. They always want to be sitting there with the best number that ever existed on the game. I respect those early moves but after living full time in Las Vegas for 25 years it eventually became evident that the late money was more significant toward the outcome. I don't always know who they are or why they played that specific team or over/under, but let's put it this way -- I always hope the late 1.5+ point move is in my direction, not against me.

Yeah, it's me, good to see you posting here. I took a hiatus from posting but miss it too much to stop. Sad to see the result I expected today once I saw the precipitous linear fall in the pointspread all week long. I don't mind when people don't understand this stuff, it actually helps that not everyone gets it. I'm sure we'll have some good gambling chats here going forward. I'm impressed with some of the posters' knowledge here like GuptaKnows and obviously yourself.

 

[TheU1984]

Please start a thread for the squares.

Real talk though, fair question was asked above: what do Pop and AD think caused the late movement? Whether it was sharp money or the books - who knew what? What variable changed?

 

[moshated305]

Please start a thread for the squares.

Real talk though, fair question was asked above: what do Pop and AD think caused the late movement? Whether it was sharp money or the books - who knew what? What variable changed?

When sharks found out Rosier was going to blow the game, all that money came in on the Pitt side.

 

[Cribby]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

This

No, actually this is wholly inaccurate. "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" is the biggest myth ever, somehow perpetuated over time by people without a clue. If a bookmaker's bankroll is sufficient, why would he move a number that has attracted an inordinate amount of money from huge squares? Bookmakers view each game as an independent event. Savvy bookmakers with large enough bankrolls view each game as just one part of a larger series. The bookmaker will win exactly 50% of those imbalanced games, and therefore it plays out mathematically as though every game had balanced action. However, by not moving the pointspread, the bookmaker earns himself 4-5x the profit (vig) than by employing the foolish strategy of trying to get equal money on both sides.

Your way (with a 2 game scenario):
Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Your way suggests it is smart for the bookmaker to call of $80k of action and guarantee himself $1k profit in vig.

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

Your way again suggests calling off $80,000 (80% of your action!) in order to guarantee yourself $1k in profit. According to your way, the bookmaker/Vegas has zero risk and guarantees itself a grant total of $2k profit on a $220k, a hold of just 1%.

The sharp bookmaker's way, given a large enough bankroll:

Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

The mathematically savvy bookmaker keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the games regardless of how heavy or imbalanced the action is. He splits here, losing $79k on the Bama game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Bama and Bama wins by 5 or more, so the bookmaker pays out $90k, but collects $10k plus $1k in vig from Auburn bettors] and winning $89k on the Miami game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Pitt and Pitt gets blown out by Miami, so the bookmaker nets $90k + $9k vig - $10k], for a net profit of $10k on $220k of action [-$79k + $89k], including vig (a net hold of 4.54%).

Numbers don't lie, forget that "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" nonsense. It's right up there with "Santa Claus is real".

Hey, is this Poptimus Prime from Canesport?

Has to be, based on caliber of writing and caliber of argument, at least 20x what I experience here on this topic.

If so, welcome to the board. This forum has lots of passionate fans and often astute football analysis. The betting discussion is just a wee bit outside. Often hilarious. Yes, they are stuck in that conventional wisdom mode of bookmakers desperate to balance the action, so they'll win either way. Nothing I post or that you post is going to shake that belief. Apparently there are posters here who were together on another Canes board dating 15 years or more, and somehow they found that "balanced action" myth and have happily toted it around ever since. The only one I'm disappointed in is Cribby. He was on Canesport a decade or more ago along with us, and would have seen all the related posts.

And BTW, if you shoot down conventional wisdom be prepared for a handful of guys here to follow you around and downvote every post. They actually believe it has any semblance of meaning, other than to make themselves look desperate and pathetic.

Anyway, as Poptimus correctly pointed out earlier in this thread, you never want the late money to be significant against your side, especially in college sports. That is the sharp money circulated by one or more of the major betting groups. They allow the number to settle all week and then pound it in the late going.

Nobody is claiming those groups hit a huge percentage. They win more often than not. On sites like this everyone is fixated on the lines involving their team, as if it has some surreal significance. In the real betting world both sides of the counter are tracking multiple sports every day and dozens and dozens of decisions. That's why they can't spend much time or subjective thought on any one of them. It is a steady grind of volume and an edge. The oddsmakers use blended power ratings to hang a number, and then sit back and see where the bettors take it. The sharp guys evaluate where their angles and/or subjective focus differs most strongly from those power rating-generated numbers, and then attack those supposedly most vulnerable numbers. Nobody particularly cares about any one outcome, unlike here or other fan sites. In Las Vegas it's rinse and repeat the next day, with a new set of variables.

Early money is important but that is primarily a handful of wise guys who the books respect most. Those guys play into the opening numbers because they feel the number is likely to move in their direction. They always want to be sitting there with the best number that ever existed on the game. I respect those early moves but after living full time in Las Vegas for 25 years it eventually became evident that the late money was more significant toward the outcome. I don't always know who they are or why they played that specific team or over/under, but let's put it this way -- I always hope the late 1.5+ point move is in my direction, not against me.

I'm nowhere as well versed in this as you and pomp, I'm just a here and there basic gambler. Not a huge gambler.

I was always under the impression that Vegas set the line, and the line only moved by whatever way the money was coming in.

That they did want it at 50/50, so they made money.

I also thought the wise guys sat back and watched the public and came in late , which is why late money affecting lines was always a red flag to me when I gambled.

Not saying you guys are wrong , that's how i thought the game was played. You guys know way more than I do on that subject.

By the way it's good to see you over here pomptimus .

 

[paksat]

soon as harley got tackled 3 feet away from the ref in the end zone.. I think we all knew why the line moved

 

[NotoriousJJE]

soon as harley got tackled 3 feet away from the ref in the end zone.. I think we all knew why the line moved

lmao.

THIS