Strange line movement

[JoNJoN]

So the line moved two points? Did our kickers leg fall off and we don't get the extra points after the two touchdowns we win by?

 

[TexasCane90]

we havent covered a big spread since duke...

not surprised why the sharps would bet the under

SHOCKINGGGGGGGGGG

 

[JgDaCane]

i hope this entire thread is all just a joke. are you actually allowing a betting line to make you nervous about this game? how in the fvck does that make sense? how does the line movement all of the sudden make our chances of winning any less? explain this to me.

It doesn’t make our chances any less. Just noting a line movement that I found odd/interesting.

 

[Cajuncane]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

 

[JgDaCane]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

It does have that feel to me as well.

 

[supacane]

Ok so Vegas is so smart we were under dog v VT, ND. Remind me how those turnt out. Not worried about it, their run defense is around GT's. When we fail to run the ball is when we struggle the most.

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk

 

[MotoSniper]

I’m super worried about this game. First road game in practically a month. At noon the day after Thanksgiving. Against a team everyone in the world is overlooking and assuming we beat. Wish I could say I disagreed with the action betting the line down.

Go ahead and neg, my fear level is high right now.

Your Avi would kick you in your no-nut sack right now...stop it...we rollin.

 

[AdrianP]

Conspiracy theory: someone sick with a stomach flu hocked loogies into the team's thanksgiving meal at the Pittsburgh Marriott. Big bettors in Vegas are informed and proceed to bet accordingly.

 

[Cribby]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

This

 

[Ivan The Terrible]

Line dropped to 11.5 on 5dimes, pinnacle, & at westgate..Anybody hear anything about an injury?

Nope. Sharps just no we haven't covered a big spread since Duke.

Thats still a crazy drop at 1030 on a thursday man. Thats either a huge bet or an injury. Something smells fishy here big time.

No new injuries whatsoever so look alive!!!!! It’s f@cking game day!!!!! And it’s great to be a Miami Hurricane!!!!

 

[rccollins]

Ok so Vegas is so smart we were under dog v VT, ND. Remind me how those turnt out. Not worried about it, their run defense is around GT's. When we fail to run the ball is when we struggle the most.

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i took miami as 6 point favorties against VT and ND before the season in vegas.. (and canes as 10 point dog to FSU)

 

[brock]

Vegas knows something

Like you knew something before the va tech game too huh?....

 

[Ammok]

So we win 28-17 due to them scoring a last second TD - because we have our 3rd-4th string on the field, including a couple seniors who never saw the field in their careers and 2 cheerleaders.
BFD

 

[tcgrad1014]

Interesting that we're favored by fewer points @ a ****** Pitt team than Clemson is favored by @ a top 25 USC(e) team.

 

[CaneToad]

I’m super worried about this game. First road game in practically a month. At noon the day after Thanksgiving. Against a team everyone in the world is overlooking and assuming we beat. Wish I could say I disagreed with the action betting the line down.

Go ahead and neg, my fear level is high right now.

Nah I hear you bro. I expected the line to go down but slowly & closer to kick. 1.5-2 at a random time has me a little shook.

It's very worrisome, who cares about a neg, it's the truth. The line has dropped linearly in Pitt's favor with no buyback whatsoever on the Canes. If someone wants to bury their head in the sand about this, that's up to them, but it's a very bad sign. Hopefully we see some uptick in the line in our favor just before kickoff.

I think it's about time to change your avatar to "chicken little."

 

[djrion]

Oh, after reading the thread several times I finally get it. This is "their" version of we roll.

We MF roll!


Good job trolling us OP and other fellow gamblers!

Cheeseburger, Lineage 14.1

 

[Poptimus]

I’m super worried about this game. First road game in practically a month. At noon the day after Thanksgiving. Against a team everyone in the world is overlooking and assuming we beat. Wish I could say I disagreed with the action betting the line down.

Go ahead and neg, my fear level is high right now.

Nah I hear you bro. I expected the line to go down but slowly & closer to kick. 1.5-2 at a random time has me a little shook.

It's very worrisome, who cares about a neg, it's the truth. The line has dropped linearly in Pitt's favor with no buyback whatsoever on the Canes. If someone wants to bury their head in the sand about this, that's up to them, but it's a very bad sign. Hopefully we see some uptick in the line in our favor just before kickoff.

I think it's about time to change your avatar to "chicken little."

A failed attempt at humor, I suppose? Stay in your lane, you're out of your element when it comes to gambling.

 

[Poptimus]

Vegas’ goal is to equal money on both sides.Sometimes they will artificially inflate or deflate a line to accomplish this.This seems like one of those times.
People have watched us play down to our competition all year and they were probably loading up on Pitt plus the 14-.Now Vegas is dropping it under the 2 tds to get money to the Miami side.


Only other thing that moves a line like that is an injury to the QB or RB if it’s a team that relays on one.Neither of those have happened or we would have heard about it.

This

No, actually this is wholly inaccurate. "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" is the biggest myth ever, somehow perpetuated over time by people without a clue. If a bookmaker's bankroll is sufficient, why would he move a number that has attracted an inordinate amount of money from huge squares? Bookmakers view each game as an independent event. Savvy bookmakers with large enough bankrolls view each game as just one part of a larger series. The bookmaker will win exactly 50% of those imbalanced games, and therefore it plays out mathematically as though every game had balanced action. However, by not moving the pointspread, the bookmaker earns himself 4-5x the profit (vig) than by employing the foolish strategy of trying to get equal money on both sides.

Your way (with a 2 game scenario):
Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Your way suggests it is smart for the bookmaker to call of $80k of action and guarantee himself $1k profit in vig.

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

Your way again suggests calling off $80,000 (80% of your action!) in order to guarantee yourself $1k in profit. According to your way, the bookmaker/Vegas has zero risk and guarantees itself a grant total of $2k profit on a $220k, a hold of just 1%.

The sharp bookmaker's way, given a large enough bankroll:

Game 1
$10,000 on Miami -13
$90,000 on Pitt +13

Game 2
$90,000 on Bama -4.5
$10,000 on Auburn +4.5

The mathematically savvy bookmaker keeps it all, expecting to win 50% of the games regardless of how heavy or imbalanced the action is. He splits here, losing $79k on the Bama game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Bama and Bama wins by 5 or more, so the bookmaker pays out $90k, but collects $10k plus $1k in vig from Auburn bettors] and winning $89k on the Miami game [i.e. The heavy money side bets Pitt and Pitt gets blown out by Miami, so the bookmaker nets $90k + $9k vig - $10k], for a net profit of $10k on $220k of action [-$79k + $89k], including vig (a net hold of 4.54%).

Numbers don't lie, forget that "Vegas wants equal money on both sides" nonsense. It's right up there with "Santa Claus is real".

 

[DerekDohrman]

same people worried about our game now because of a line movement are the same people who think they can beat the market.

suckers. they might get lucky in the short term, but that belief will allow time to make losers of them all.

 

[Jassid82]

Look either you think we “roll” or you think we don’t. Y’all are over thinking this. Reality is we should cover -12.5. Pitt is garbage. I don’t care about cold weather, superstitions, trap games (wasnt UVA the “trap game”? How many trap games are we going to have?)..come out and put these dudes away. Plain and simple.