Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[mr.h]

SpaceX Will be going public next year. This is going to be wild

After years of resisting it, SpaceX now plans to go public. Why?

Much of the AI race comes down to amassing and deploying assets."

arstechnica.com

Will they make money?

 

[Calinative]

Will they make money?

I’d assume this ipo is going to be the biggest ever. It’ll be expensive to buy in. I don’t know if it’ll be a good buy immediately.

But long term? I 100% would bet on Musk when his main goal in life is much more SoaceX than Tesla. He knows in order to fulfill his goals regarding Mars it’s ALL about securing the money flow. The entire idea is Starlink+Space data centers will ultimately be a cash cow. And it’s all designed around Starship being success. If that happens that’s gunna deliver payloads to Mars and be the reusable vehicle that sets up Starlink and Data Centers.
He’s already been setting SpaceX (well Starlink) up as a Global Mobile Network Operator to compete with like AT&T,Verizon,T-Mobile… that’s why they are spending so much cash on spectrum rights.

They are the dominant space player. But everything rides on Starship being successful at FULL reuse. They accomplish that and everything you can think of regarding space is in play. Space mining. Space manufacturing. That’s why he’s making a move to go all in on AI. Robots+AI+Space = unlocking economic capability never before seen.

 

[TheEye]

Will they make money?

They hold an oligopoly on satellite launches. The question is, will all profits go into an expensive Mars mission with 50 years before making a return? Or will they focus on growing the assets of the company and more towards profitable ventures?

 

[mr.h]

Tomorrow payroll and unemployment numbers.

 

[mr.h]

8:15 AM
USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average
16.25K - - 4.75K
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
0.1% - - 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Oct)
3.5% - - 3.8%
8:30 AM
USD Average Weekly Hours (Oct)
34.3 - - 34.2
8:30 AM
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Nov)
62.5% - - 62.4%
8:30 AM
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
-105K - - 119K
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
0% -0.34 0.1% 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
3.5% - - 4.2%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales Control Group (Oct)
0.8% 1.11 0.3% -0.1%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Oct)
0.4% 0.41 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Nov)
-5% - - 8%
8:30 AM
USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
4.6% 2.04 4.4% 4.4%
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% -2.67 0.3% -
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)
3.5% - - -
8:30 AM
USD Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
34.3 1.34 34.2 -
8:30 AM
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
64K 0.31 50K

Non farm payrolls for Oct down
“”””””””””””””” Nov. up
Retail sales Oct down
Unemployment rate Nov….up 4.6
Nov. hourly wages down
Interest rates dropping
Basically weak numbers

 

[mr.h]

CPI Thursday
Are we going to get a Santa Claus rally?

 

[flips]

CPI Thursday
Are we going to get a Santa Claus rally?

Could be the trigger. I think as long as inflation doesn't get out of control again the market will keep going up.

My preference is that we sell a bit more in coming days/weeks and backtest 660-65 on SPY. Good response there would give me more confidence than if we just rallied from where we are at now.

The market structure is qute a bit different from the last two Q4 balances around all-time highs we saw in '21 & '24, IMO, that resolved violently to the downside. Those ones were much more top heavy, and when the buyers who had been buying near the top of the range for months
finally puked, it wasn't pretty:

If we start closing weeks below the October/November lows from this year, I would be very concerned though. Probably in for a rough Q1 that backtests the Feb '25 ATH area (610-615). I believe that's what Tom Lee esentially predicted would happen on CNBC the other day, with the market then rallying for ~15% gain in '26.

 

[Cmuri]

Cool I own part of the only nuclear fusion company that is publically traded.

TAE Technologies: America’s Answer to Fusion Energy—And Why It Matters for AI Dominance

To learn more, download TAE Technologies: America’s Answer to Fusion Energy and Why It Matters for AI Dominance today.

futurumgroup.com

 

[mr.h]

:30 AM
USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Nov)
2.6% -5.00 3% 3%
8:30 AM
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Nov)
324.122 -9.00 325.13 324.8
8:30 AM
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.897M -1.09 1.94M 1.83M
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims
224K -0.07 225K 237K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
217.5K - - 217K
8:30 AM
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec)
-10.2 -0.82 3 -1.7

CPI YoY down
Initial jobless claims steady
USD Philly Fed Man. down
Mkt should be happy

 

[Cmuri]

View attachment 347101

Cool I own part of the only nuclear fusion company that is publically traded.

TAE Technologies: America’s Answer to Fusion Energy—And Why It Matters for AI Dominance

To learn more, download TAE Technologies: America’s Answer to Fusion Energy and Why It Matters for AI Dominance today.

futurumgroup.com

https://truthsocial.com/@DevinNunes/115742693468231478

 

[Cmuri]

Dan Ives, big Tesla backer, on TAE.



This is pretty massive.



Ps my 2027 calls I told you guys I was buying are going insane lol

 

[Imukat]

SpaceX Will be going public next year. This is going to be wild

After years of resisting it, SpaceX now plans to go public. Why?

Much of the AI race comes down to amassing and deploying assets."

arstechnica.com

The father of my daughter's friend has been with SpaceX since 2005 and is a principal engineer. He's also had dinner with Elon. Not at an employee event with Elon but dinner at a table with Elon. They're probably rich now that employees can sell their options.

 

[Calinative]

The father of my daughter's friend has been with SpaceX since 2005 and is a principal engineer. He's also had dinner with Elon. Not at an employee event with Elon but dinner at a table with Elon. They're probably rich now that employees can sell their options.

SpaceX has had 2 periods per year where employees could sell forever now. They’ve always had a pretty good ability to sell for a private company. It was just never all that smart to sell except out of necessity (and because most of the best pay incentives are their stock options) because everyone knew it was a net worth rocket ship. Everyone has wanted in to buy SpaceX. It’s truly an incredible company. It’s already made a bunch of Multi Milionaires and likely not a bunch of billionaires. Being with SpaceX since 2005 is honestly insane though. That would literally make him likely one of longest tenured employees there and almost certainly burnt out half to death multiple times lol

I expect this ipo to lead to a lot of employees taking their money and retiring. And then Musk will bring the new young blood j. To push them hard as **** to get Starship to Mars.

 

[Calinative]

Also Delaware Supreme Court just reinstated Musks pay package. What an absolute **** show out of their Chancery Court

 

[mr.h]

08:30

USD
GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Act: 4.3% Cons: 3.3% Prev.: 3.8%
08:30

USD
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)

Act: 3.7% Cons: 2.7% Prev.: 2.1%
08:30


USD
GDP Sales (Q3)

Act: 4.6% Cons: Prev.: 7.5%
08:30

USD
Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Oct)

Act: 0.5% Cons: Prev.: 1.1%

08:30

USD
PCE Prices (Q3)

Act: 2.8% Cons: 2.9% Prev.: 2.1%
08:30

GDP up….could mean less of a chance for int. rate cuts.

 

[mr.h]

Unfortunately consumer confidence slipped due to higher prices and fears about tariffs

 

[mr.h]

S&P hits record high

 

[umcane4life]

If it was a Democrat in the White House H would be praising the numbers. He's always been this way.

 

[mr.h]

Jobless claims down…..

 

[mr.h]