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mr.h said:
Will they make money?
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I’d assume this ipo is going to be the biggest ever. It’ll be expensive to buy in. I don’t know if it’ll be a good buy immediately.

But long term? I 100% would bet on Musk when his main goal in life is much more SoaceX than Tesla. He knows in order to fulfill his goals regarding Mars it’s ALL about securing the money flow. The entire idea is Starlink+Space data centers will ultimately be a cash cow. And it’s all designed around Starship being success. If that happens that’s gunna deliver payloads to Mars and be the reusable vehicle that sets up Starlink and Data Centers.
He’s already been setting SpaceX (well Starlink) up as a Global Mobile Network Operator to compete with like AT&T,Verizon,T-Mobile… that’s why they are spending so much cash on spectrum rights.

They are the dominant space player. But everything rides on Starship being successful at FULL reuse. They accomplish that and everything you can think of regarding space is in play. Space mining. Space manufacturing. That’s why he’s making a move to go all in on AI. Robots+AI+Space = unlocking economic capability never before seen.
 
mr.h said:
Will they make money?
Click to expand...
They hold an oligopoly on satellite launches. The question is, will all profits go into an expensive Mars mission with 50 years before making a return? Or will they focus on growing the assets of the company and more towards profitable ventures?
 
8:15 AM
USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average
16.25K - - 4.75K
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
0.1% - - 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Oct)
3.5% - - 3.8%
8:30 AM
USD Average Weekly Hours (Oct)
34.3 - - 34.2
8:30 AM
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Nov)
62.5% - - 62.4%
8:30 AM
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
-105K - - 119K
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
0% -0.34 0.1% 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
3.5% - - 4.2%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales Control Group (Oct)
0.8% 1.11 0.3% -0.1%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Oct)
0.4% 0.41 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Nov)
-5% - - 8%
8:30 AM
USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
4.6% 2.04 4.4% 4.4%
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% -2.67 0.3% -
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)
3.5% - - -
8:30 AM
USD Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
34.3 1.34 34.2 -
8:30 AM
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
64K 0.31 50K

Non farm payrolls for Oct down
“”””””””””””””” Nov. up
Retail sales Oct down
Unemployment rate Nov….up 4.6
Nov. hourly wages down
Interest rates dropping
Basically weak numbers
 
mr.h said:
8:15 AM
USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average
16.25K - - 4.75K
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)
0.1% - - 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Oct)
3.5% - - 3.8%
8:30 AM
USD Average Weekly Hours (Oct)
34.3 - - 34.2
8:30 AM
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Nov)
62.5% - - 62.4%
8:30 AM
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
-105K - - 119K
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
0% -0.34 0.1% 0.2%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct)
3.5% - - 4.2%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales Control Group (Oct)
0.8% 1.11 0.3% -0.1%
8:30 AM
USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Oct)
0.4% 0.41 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Nov)
-5% - - 8%
8:30 AM
USD Unemployment Rate (Nov)
4.6% 2.04 4.4% 4.4%
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Nov)
0.1% -2.67 0.3% -
8:30 AM
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov)
3.5% - - -
8:30 AM
USD Average Weekly Hours (Nov)
34.3 1.34 34.2 -
8:30 AM
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)
64K 0.31 50K

Non farm payrolls for Oct down
“”””””””””””””” Nov. up
Retail sales Oct down
Unemployment rate Nov….up 4.6
Nov. hourly wages down
Interest rates dropping
Basically weak numbers
Click to expand...
Bryan Cranston Reaction GIF
 
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mr.h said:
CPI Thursday
Are we going to get a Santa Claus rally?
Click to expand...
Could be the trigger. I think as long as inflation doesn't get out of control again the market will keep going up.

My preference is that we sell a bit more in coming days/weeks and backtest 660-65 on SPY. Good response there would give me more confidence than if we just rallied from where we are at now.

The market structure is qute a bit different from the last two Q4 balances around all-time highs we saw in '21 & '24, IMO, that resolved violently to the downside. Those ones were much more top heavy, and when the buyers who had been buying near the top of the range for months
finally puked, it wasn't pretty:

Screenshot 2025-12-17 105947.png

Screenshot 2025-12-17 105846.png

Screenshot 2025-12-17 105757.png


If we start closing weeks below the October/November lows from this year, I would be very concerned though. Probably in for a rough Q1 that backtests the Feb '25 ATH area (610-615). I believe that's what Tom Lee esentially predicted would happen on CNBC the other day, with the market then rallying for ~15% gain in '26.
 
:30 AM
USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Nov)
2.6% -5.00 3% 3%
8:30 AM
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Nov)
324.122 -9.00 325.13 324.8
8:30 AM
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.897M -1.09 1.94M 1.83M
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims
224K -0.07 225K 237K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
217.5K - - 217K
8:30 AM
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Dec)
-10.2 -0.82 3 -1.7

CPI YoY down
Initial jobless claims steady
USD Philly Fed Man. down
Mkt should be happy
 
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