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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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This week
What to Watch For
  • Thursday, 8:30 am ET:
    • U.S. Productivity (revision): A measure of how efficiently workers are producing goods and services.

    • U.S. Trade Deficit: The difference between a country's imports and exports, reflecting its international trade performance.

      S&P Final U.S. Services PMI: A survey-based indicator of the health of the services sector, with a median forecast of 55.3%.
Thursday, 10:00 am ET:
    • ISM Services: Another key indicator for the services sector, with a median forecast of 50.5%.

    Any number over 50 shows growth
 
  • While the market is near all-time highs, economists are pointing towards September seasonal performance as a potential case for a pause in the rally.
  • In particular, the S&P 500 has been down 4 of the last 5 years in September.
  • Additionally, over the last 20 years, September boasts the worst average monthly return, down -65 basis points on average.
 
USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jul) -2.5% -2.5% -2.5%
10:00 USD Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jul) 1.0% 1.1%
10:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Jul) -1.3% -1.3% -4.8%
10:00 USD Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Jul) 0.6% 0.4%
10:00 USD JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) 7.181M 7.380M 7.357M
Durable orders down
Factory orders down, but not as bad as the last reading
Jolt job numbers down

Google up big because of Chrome decision
Apple up big because of Chrome
 
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03:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)
0.3% 0.00 0.3% 0.3%
03:00
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Aug)
3.7% 0.00 3.7% 3.9%
03:00
USD Average Weekly Hours (Aug)
34.2 -1.34 34.3 34.2
03:00
USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Aug)
62.3% - - 62.2%
03:00
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)
22K -1.23 75K 79K
03:00
USD U6 Underemployment Rate (Aug)
8.1% - - 7.9%
03:00
USD Unemployment Rate (Aug)
4.3% 0.00 4.3% 4.2%

Unemployment up
Payrolls down
 

IMG_2952.png
 
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Bird4um said:
Reports I see have google search on an increase.
Click to expand...

There are a number of factors.
1. Does Google have to sell Chrome? If so, search drops.
2. Gen Z/Gen A are big ChatGPT users.
3. AI isn't a 1=1 replacement of search, so we are seeing a change in behaviors. In the end, if most consumers shift to AI agents for finding information, then Google will struggle.
 
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