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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion


This Week’s Calendar​

Monday, Aug. 25


  • New home sales (July)1
  • Key Earnings: PDD Holdings (PDD)2

Tuesday, Aug. 26


  • Consumer confidence (August)3
  • Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin4
  • More Data to Watch: Durable-goods orders (July), S&P Case-Shiller home price index (June)15
  • Key Earnings: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), MongoDB (MDB), Okta (OKTA)6789

Wednesday, Aug. 27


  • Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin10
  • Key Earnings: Nvidia, Royal Bank of Canada (RY), CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Veeva Systems (VEEV), Agilent Technologies (A), HP (HPQ)11121314151617

Thursday, Aug. 28


  • Gross domestic product - first revisions (Q2)18
  • More Data to Watch: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Aug. 23), Pending home sales (July)1920
  • Key Earnings: Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), Dell Technologies (DELL), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Li Auto (LI), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), Dollar General (DG)2122232425262728

Friday, Aug. 29


  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (July)29
  • More Data to Watch: Consumer sentiment - final (August), U.S. trade balance (July), retail inventories (July), wholesale inventories (July)301
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Think so? Probably a decent idea, might save me a grand over the next year. I gotta do the math. Really only wanted to do this once but u might be right. That check every month is HITTING.
Click to expand...

If you are only saving $1000, then I’d wait. Closing cost alone is $3000 in most cases. One of my loan officers believes we see 5.5 within 6-12 months.

No one can see the future. We simply guess based on the past. If history repeats, we will see a market crash 6-12 months after the Fed pivots. When that happens, rates should be lower. The issue: debt is so high the market for longer term debt is very weak. Even with a equity market correction, we aren’t likely to see the bond market drop.
 
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@SpikeUM - if stagflation happens, does history repeat with higher long term rates and lower short term rates? If so, the 5% mortgage rates could be a dream.
 
90scane said:
@SpikeUM - if stagflation happens, does history repeat with higher long term rates and lower short term rates? If so, the 5% mortgage rates could be a dream.
Click to expand...

Assuming the Fed targets inflation first, its the other way around, with an inverted yield curve. My best *guess* is that rates come down in the near term, but could dramatically go up after that.
 
$DTREF hit $.20 today. 52 week high

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NVDA today..just a beat won’t send it flying up, but they need to push robotics
 
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USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.954M -1.65 1.97M 1.961M
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q2) PREL
2.5% -0.83 2.6% 2.5%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2) PREL
3.3% 0.46 3.1% 3%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q2) PREL
2% 0.00 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims
229K -0.14 230K 234K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
228.5K - - 226.25K
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q2) PREL
2% -2.04 2.1% 2.1%
Personal consumption down
GDP rebounded up
 
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
0.3% 0.00 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2.9% 0.00 2.9% 2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Goods Trade Balance (Jul) PREL
$-103.6B -0.56 $-87.4B $-85.9B
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
0.2% 0.00 0.2% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2.6% 0.00 2.6% 2.6%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Income (MoM) (Jul)
0.4% 0.00 0.4% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Spending (Jul)
0.5% 0.00 0.5% 0.3%
8:30 AM
USD Wholesale Inventories (Jul) PREL
0.2% 0.00 0.2% 0.1%

PCE unchanged
PCE are changes in prices experienced by consumers
Personal spending up
We are still using pre-tariff inventory…
 
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