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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

SpikeUM said:
Gold and silver are usually trades to get in and out of, as evidenced by the last few years being down and the surge this year.
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Historically precious metals are a terrible investment compared to real estate equity and stocks.
 
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TheEye said:
Historically precious metals are a terrible investment compared to real estate equity and stocks.
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Agreed, the difference between long term investing vs. trades. Gold, EM, Small Cap etc, are trades. The meme craze was a trade, as was the EV craze.
 
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Mar 22)1.791M--1.81M
08:30USDGoods and Services Trade Balance(Feb)$-68.9B-0.85$-67.3B$-67.6B
08:30USDGoods Trade Balance(Feb)$-91.4B--$-91.8B
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Mar 29)221K1.37214K212K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Mar 29)214.25K--211.5K
Jobless claims down….as expected
Powell talks rate cuts..Fed likely to cut this year
 
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Canefan4life said:
I believe it, I don’t see inflation slowing down anytime soon.. the prices contractors are charging (I’m a property manager) are insane and everyone seems to have plenty of money to spend.
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I generally agree with you, but with a few caveats/notes:

Inflation is year over year, so if something goes up 20% in year 1 and then only 2% in year 2, the headlines will be "inflation is tamed, down to 2%!". The reality though is that you are still paying roughly 25% more.

Oil is going back up, which greatly impacts inflation. So is housing.

Insurance is also surging, so if you are using licensed contractors, their costs have gone way up.
 
SpikeUM said:
I generally agree with you, but with a few caveats/notes:

Inflation is year over year, so if something goes up 20% in year 1 and then only 2% in year 2, the headlines will be "inflation is tamed, down to 2%!". The reality though is that you are still paying roughly 25% more.

Oil is going back up, which greatly impacts inflation. So is housing.

Insurance is also surging, so if you are using licensed contractors, their costs have gone way up.
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Agreed, I’ll give an example as we’re about to turf the backyard.. i have quotes from $86k to $153k for pet turf.. mind you it’s just replacing existing turf nothing like a full demo… the contractor I choose told me how he bid a job and was the cheapest bid by $100k for turf and he was already making a large profit. People are just throwing out crazy prices for just about everything I deal with. I’m used to getting screwed on prices but it’s getting insane.
 
Canefan4life said:
Agreed, I’ll give an example as we’re about to turf the backyard.. i have quotes from $86k to $153k for pet turf.. mind you it’s just replacing existing turf nothing like a full demo… the contractor I choose told me how he bid a job and was the cheapest bid by $100k for turf and he was already making a large profit. People are just throwing out crazy prices for just about everything I deal with. I’m used to getting screwed on prices but it’s getting insane.
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Move to Appalachia…the new South Florida
 
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Mar)0.3% 0.000.3%0.2%
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Mar)4.1% 0.004.1%4.3%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Mar) TRADE NOW34.40.9834.334.3
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Mar)62.7% --62.5%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Mar) TRADE NOW303K1.52200K270K
08:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Mar)7.3% --7.3%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Mar) TRADE NOW3.8% -0.683.9%3.9%
303K freaken jobs….lmfao
Unemployment down

CNN:
Jobs are being added where they are needed"A high number of jobs were added in areas where they are most needed, including education and health care. Still, job gains are becoming more broad based, which we should expect as the labor market normalizes. This should not keep the Fed from dropping interest rates later this year……imo
 
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mr.h said:
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Mar)0.3% 0.000.3%0.2%
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Mar)4.1% 0.004.1%4.3%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Mar) TRADE NOW34.40.9834.334.3
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Mar)62.7% --62.5%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Mar) TRADE NOW303K1.52200K270K
08:30USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Mar)7.3% --7.3%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Mar) TRADE NOW3.8% -0.683.9%3.9%
303K freaken jobs….lmfao
Unemployment down

CNN:
Jobs are being added where they are needed"A high number of jobs were added in areas where they are most needed, including education and health care. Still, job gains are becoming more broad based, which we should expect as the labor market normalizes. This should not keep the Fed from dropping interest rates later this year……imo
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We shall see - I lean more towards this view, "Hatzius will be quite surprised": p.s. I dont know about zero rate cuts, but we have gone from 7 to 5 to 3 and now MAYBE 0-2.

Fed’s Kashkari raises prospect of zero rate cuts

 
SpikeUM said:
We shall see - I lean more towards this view, "Hatzius will be quite surprised": p.s. I dont know about zero rate cuts, but we have gone from 7 to 5 to 3 and now MAYBE 0-2.

Fed’s Kashkari raises prospect of zero rate cuts

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I don’t believe it. The Fed is overly cautious. Rate cuts will be needed and the stock markets will spike. I keep reminding everyone that it is an election year.
Jobs are being added in critical positions like medical and education.
 
mr.h said:
I don’t believe it. The Fed is overly cautious. Rate cuts will be needed and the stock markets will spike. I keep reminding everyone that it is an election year.
Jobs are being added in critical positions like medical and education.
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You may be correct, but just in the last day, one Fed Governor said no hikes and another is saying additional rate hikes are needed.

Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high​


 
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SpikeUM said:
Me too. My best guess is that the Fed wont move up or down in an election year, unless its a 100% no brainer.
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I still see Powell making claims before pulling the trigger. Claiming rate cuts or hikes are coming is just as effective as actually doing it at this point. We see YOY inflation hovering the 3% mark. An economic collapse would drive that number lower, in which drastic cuts would pull us out of it. The economy is just too strong right now.
 
SpikeUM said:
You may be correct, but just in the last day, one Fed Governor said no hikes and another is saying additional rate hikes are needed.

Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high​


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Jamie Dimon is chiming in too, so I know it’s political. He hasn’t been right since Trump left office. I will say that the current administration can do more to lower gas and oil prices although it’s not as easy as it seems with the Mideast in turmoil.
 
mr.h said:
Jamie Dimon is chiming in too, so I know it’s political. He hasn’t been right since Trump left office. I will say that the current administration can do more to lower gas and oil prices although it’s not as easy as it seems with the Mideast in turmoil.
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Mon ami, Jamie Dimon is possibly maybe probably the best CEO in America. Which of his reasons do you disagree with?

And if the Admin is fighting like crazy to destroy fossil fuels, how are they going to lower prices? All they are doing is creating a future scarcity. BTW, here is the Dimon quote, which I agree with:

  • JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon warned that U.S. interest rates could soar to 8% or more in coming years, reflecting the risk that record-high deficit spending and geopolitical stress will complicate the fight against inflation. “Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world and the restructuring of global trade—all are inflationary,” Dimon wrote in an annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders released on Monday. Once again sounding a cautious note, Dimon said he questioned the optimism in financial markets. He said investors and traders expect the Federal Reserve to engineer a so-called soft landing in which the economy avoids a recession despite a sharp rise in interest rates in recent years, The WSJ reports. Dimon also warned that the federal government was overstepping its bounds in trying to add new capital requirements on banks.
 
SpikeUM said:
Mon ami, Jamie Dimon is possibly maybe probably the best CEO in America. Which of his reasons do you disagree with?

And if the Admin is fighting like crazy to destroy fossil fuels, how are they going to lower prices? All they are doing is creating a future scarcity. BTW, here is the Dimon quote, which I agree with:

  • JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon warned that U.S. interest rates could soar to 8% or more in coming years, reflecting the risk that record-high deficit spending and geopolitical stress will complicate the fight against inflation. “Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world and the restructuring of global trade—all are inflationary,” Dimon wrote in an annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders released on Monday. Once again sounding a cautious note, Dimon said he questioned the optimism in financial markets. He said investors and traders expect the Federal Reserve to engineer a so-called soft landing in which the economy avoids a recession despite a sharp rise in interest rates in recent years, The WSJ reports. Dimon also warned that the federal government was overstepping its bounds in trying to add new capital requirements on banks.
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Have we replenished the oil reserve?
 
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