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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

mr.h said:
Wage growth IS above inflation
Jobs are being created a lot more than expected
The Fed will cut interest rates to help fight inflation which has seemed to have plateaued.
Click to expand...
Also in February, the annual increase in wages edged up by five cents, to $34.57, after increasing by 18 cents in January.
Part time jobs are not the same as full time jobs.
Powell wants inflation closer to 2%, not increasing.

nypost.com

US inflation rose 3.2% in February — with consumer prices not falling yet during Biden’s time in office

US inflation rose 3.2% in February — yet another stubbornly high figure that won’t inspire the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates this spring.
nypost.com nypost.com
 
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JD08 said:
Also in February, the annual increase in wages edged up by five cents, to $34.57, after increasing by 18 cents in January.
Part time jobs are not the same as full time jobs.
Powell wants inflation closer to 2%, not increasing.

nypost.com

US inflation rose 3.2% in February — with consumer prices not falling yet during Biden’s time in office

US inflation rose 3.2% in February — yet another stubbornly high figure that won’t inspire the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates this spring.
nypost.com nypost.com
Click to expand...
You are not going to get 2% inflation with with a strong economy and a growing workforce that is spending.
 
mr.h said:
Wage growth IS above inflation
Jobs are being created a lot more than expected
The Fed will cut interest rates to help fight inflation which has seemed to have plateaued.
Click to expand...
I'm no finance major, but I don't think cutting interest rates will help inflation. I believe it's the exact opposite.

That said, love that you hate FSU & ND
 
mr.h said:
You are not going to get 2% inflation with with a strong economy and a growing workforce that is spending.
Click to expand...
You're also not going to get rate cuts. How long will the growth economy continue when that spending is accumulating debt?
 
SWFLSWAGG17 said:
I'm no finance major, but I don't think cutting interest rates will help inflation. I believe it's the exact opposite.

That said, love that you hate FSU & ND
Click to expand...
You are right. Usually cutting interest rates speed up inflation and rising interest rates curb inflation, but I’m concerned about high housing and credit card costs, which do not seem to be slowing inflation. ..I’m not a finance major either 😂
 
mr.h said:
You are right. Usually cutting interest rates speed up inflation and rising interest rates curb inflation, but I’m concerned about high housing and credit card costs, which do not seem to be slowing inflation. ..I’m not a finance major either 😂
Click to expand...
Housing could be fixed in it's own bubble. And CC costs, well..... That's just ****** finance literacy.
 
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Mar 8) 208K--208.5K
08:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb) 2% -1.9% 2%
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Mar 1) 1.811M-1.9M1.794M
08:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Feb) 0.6% -0.8% -1.1%
08:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Feb) 0.6% -0.3% 0.3%
08:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Feb) 0.3% -0.5% -0.8%
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Mar 8) 209K-218K210K
08:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb) 0.3% -0.2% 0.5%
08:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Feb) 0% ---0.3%
08:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 1.6% -1.1% 1
PPI up fractionally
Jobless claims down
Retail sales up, but not as expected
All I know is that costs have eased and rate cuts are still in the picture. Remember, it’s an election year.
 
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SWFLSWAGG17 said:
I'm no finance major, but I don't think cutting interest rates will help inflation. I believe it's the exact opposite.
Click to expand...

Congress has defeated the FED without having to write a law. The FED is simply along for the ride as interest on fiscal deficits and additional deficit spending are causing inflation. The government was the reason for GDP growth in 2023.

In short, we likely are going to see an inflationary environment for many years.

Housing- I've read that we are anywhere from 3-7M houses short. Texas alone is 700k short. There are 82M single-family homes. 4M short still would take 3-5 years to make up.
Technology- I do believe our best chance of knocking down inflation will be a multifaceted approach with Technological advancements playing their part. A great example: SpaceX just launched the largest moving man-made object today. If StarShip does become viable much like Falcon, they will cut the cost of launches by a massive amount even compared to the Falcon.
Congress- at some point, they have to address several things. Taxes have to go up, spending has to go down, retirement age likely has to go up, etc.
 
NAR settled their class action lawsuit. Impact: selling a house will cost less than 6%. Zillow (Z) and CoStar (CSGP) will see the bigger upside. Around 1M agents will leave the space and more people will lean on technology to sell/buy homes vs individual agents.

CoStar also plays in the commercial space with Loopnet. I suspect it could benefit from the headwinds facing commercial real estate as everyone is looking to sell or find tenants and thus willing to pay a premium to CoStar for better listings online.

This is likely deflationary across the board:
Lower cost of homes
Fewer people employed

Now the real truth. There have always been MLS brokers willing to list a house for 1% or a flat amount. Few use them because they list on MLS and don't actively market the listing on Zillow, CoStar, etc. Thus, forcing agents to cut income will lead to marketing costs being passed along to sellers so the market will likely find the cost to be similar with Zillow and CoStar reaping the rewards.
 
Deflation requires a decrease in demand. There are always sectors that show that, even in an inflationary period.
Nvida conference propelling Tech.
 
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mr.h said:
Deflation requires a decrease in demand. There are always sectors that show that, even in an inflationary period.
Nvida conference propelling Tech.
Click to expand...

Not technically correct.

Deflation can come from an increase in supply, lower cost of goods/services, or decrease in demand.
 
90scane said:
Congress has defeated the FED without having to write a law. The FED is simply along for the ride as interest on fiscal deficits and additional deficit spending are causing inflation. The government was the reason for GDP growth in 2023.

In short, we likely are going to see an inflationary environment for many years.

Housing- I've read that we are anywhere from 3-7M houses short. Texas alone is 700k short. There are 82M single-family homes. 4M short still would take 3-5 years to make up.
Technology- I do believe our best chance of knocking down inflation will be a multifaceted approach with Technological advancements playing their part. A great example: SpaceX just launched the largest moving man-made object today. If StarShip does become viable much like Falcon, they will cut the cost of launches by a massive amount even compared to the Falcon.
Congress- at some point, they have to address several things. Taxes have to go up, spending has to go down, retirement age likely has to go up, etc.
Click to expand...

www.cnbc.com

Home prices rose 2.4 times faster than inflation since 1960s, study finds. What that means for homebuyers

While inflation is 10 times higher now than 60 years ago, home prices are 24 times more expensive, a new study found. Here's what that means for homebuyers.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
90scane said:
Not technically correct.

Deflation can come from an increase in supply, lower cost of goods/services, or decrease in demand.
Click to expand...
Not happening this year. Because this is an election year and with AI being the future for years to come, the mkt., in 2024, could be stronger than 2023.
 
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mr.h said:
Not happening this year. Because this is an election year and with AI being the future for years to come, the mkt., in 2024, could be stronger than 2023.
Click to expand...
I never said it would impact this year.

I actually think the FED could keep rates as is until November due to the election and higher inflation (err Government spending). The stock market performance could be good but it sure looks pretty top heavy.
 
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Mar 8)1.807M--1.803M
08:30USDCurrent Account(Q4)$-194.8B1.41$-209B$-196.4B
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Mar 15)210K-0.63215K212K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Mar 15)211.25K--208K
08:30USDPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(Mar)3.20.77-2.35.2

Jobless claims less than expected
Philly Fed Manufacturing higher than expected
I thought NVDA a would have popped after conference. A lot of good news…
 
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13:45
USD		S&P Global Composite PMI(Mar)PREL 52.2
13:45
USD		S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Mar) PREL 52.5
13:45
USD		S&P Global Services PMI(Mar)PREL 51.7
14:00
USD		Existing Home Sales (MoM)(Feb) 4.38M
14:00
USD		Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)(Feb) 9.5%
Everything over 50 shows growth
 
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