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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

mr.h said:
I don’t believe we are overtaxed. We have to keep up the strongest military in the world and we have an aging population. Every government Department should be downsized, but good luck with that. It’s funny to see red states taking credit for any act that financially helps the middle class. It’s nice to finally seeing prescription drug prices going down to the rates that Canada and Mexico pays. If you are a conservative, libertarian, or progressive, we should be against cartels.
unfortunately we do not have a immigration policy. That’s on both parties.
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I am at 50% just in Federal/SS/Meds, and then add literally dozens if not hundreds of federal, state and local taxes. I am definitely being overtaxed.
 
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SpikeUM said:
I am at 50% just in Federal/SS/Meds, and then add literally dozens if not hundreds of federal, state and local taxes. I am definitely being overtaxed.
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I'm less than 5% Fed/SS/Meds but I couldn't even tell you the amount of taxes I've paid at the state/local level (Gas, Personal Property, Income, Sales...). Those state and local taxes are hidden in many things that they compound. I pay income taxes then have to pay property taxes using after-tax dollars, same with purchases etc.

Now I've had years at 50% in the past.
 
90scane said:
100% in my area.

My county is actually very OLD (near Richmond, VA). Areas still getting developed have new schools, driving better teachers to them, higher donations to PTAs, more family involvement with students, better-ranked schools... The areas with 100+-year-old schools have lower-income families, teachers try to transfer out when they get offers, PTAs don't have as much money, and parents are less involved... The county doesn't have the funds to demo 100-year-old schools to build new ones so the district you live in determines the quality of the education for your kids. There aren't a ton of private schools and the cost of them is similar to a public university. Thus, the overall ranking for the county schools isn't great but you have some top % schools and some bottom % all in the same county.
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Same in mine. Atlanta has a few elementary schools that are good. Most aren’t. And the high schools they feed into are not good anyways. Conversely, Cobb County, which has lower taxes, has excellent schools.
 
Interesting chart of Fed possibilities, this is not an ML chart but it ties to what they are forecasting (one more hike this year and then cuts next year).

1693424486305.png
 
I feel like Ricky Bobby at the dinning room table… “please bless lower rates and allow another housing boom 3lb 4oz baby Jesus.”
 
CPI tomorrow? If so, it could put an end to hikes.

Traditionally the market hits it low point 6-12 months after the first rate cut. Thus, Dec 2024-June 2025.
 
90scane said:
CPI tomorrow? If so, it could put an end to hikes.

Traditionally the market hits it low point 6-12 months after the first rate cut. Thus, Dec 2024-June 2025.
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No. core personal consumption…which is watched closely by the Fed.
 
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Core personal consumption is looked at as inflation numbers.
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Aug 18) 1.725M0.961.7M1.697M
08:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Jul) 0.2% 00.2% 0.2%
08:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Jul) 4.2% 04.2% 4.1%
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Aug 25) 228K-0.63235K232K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Aug 25) 237.5K--237.25K
08:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Jul) 0.2% 00.2% 0.2%
08:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Jul) 3.3% 03.3% 3%
08:30USDPersonal Income (MoM)(Jul)
0.2% -0.910.3% 0.3%
Core CPE…Pretty much as expected but fractional up from last month.
personal income down.
jobless claims down.
 
SpikeUM said:
I am at 50% just in Federal/SS/Meds, and then add literally dozens if not hundreds of federal, state and local taxes. I am definitely being overtaxed.
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Remember that SS and Medicare will pay you back in spades. Other taxes pay for things you need [schools, roads, sewer/water, garbage p/u, lighting, etc]. I understand the frustration, but America has lower taxes than other westernized countries.
 
mr.h said:
Remember that SS and Medicare will pay you back in spades. Other taxes pay for things you need [schools, roads, sewer/water, garbage p/u, lighting, etc]. I understand the frustration, but America has lower taxes than other westernized countries.
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Nobody would have any problem with taxes if the governments treated expenditures responsibly.
 
mr.h said:
Remember that SS and Medicare will pay you back in spades. Other taxes pay for things you need [schools, roads, sewer/water, garbage p/u, lighting, etc]. I understand the frustration, but America has lower taxes than other westernized countries.
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You could make that argument for Medicare, but SS adds insult to injury by taxing payments.
 
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (MoM)(Aug)0.2% -1.340.3%0.4%
08:30USDAverage Hourly Earnings (YoY)(Aug)4.3% -4.4%4.4%
08:30USDAverage Weekly Hours(Aug)34.41.2534.334.3
08:30USDLabor Force Participation Rate(Aug)62.8% -62.6%62.6%
08:30USDNonfarm Payrolls(Aug)187K-170K157K
USDU6 Underemployment Rate(Aug)7.1% 2.216.8%6.7%
08:30USDUnemployment Rate(Aug)3.8% -3.5%3.5%
Hourly earning down
unemployment rate up
non-farm payrolls up. It seems payroll numbers keep getting adjusted.
33% of November rate hike per cnbc poll
 
09:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Aug)--4747
10:00USDConstruction Spending (MoM)(Jul)--0.5%0.5%
10:00USDISM Manufacturing Employment Index(Aug)--44.244.4
10:00USDISM Manufacturing New Orders Index(Aug)--46.347.3
10:00USDISM Manufacturing PMI(Aug) ***--4746.4
10:00USDISM Manufacturing Prices Paid(Aug)--43.942.6
Fractional moves

S&P over 4500
APPL wants to break 190.
 
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mr.h said:
09:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Aug)--4747
10:00USDConstruction Spending (MoM)(Jul)--0.5%0.5%
10:00USDISM Manufacturing Employment Index(Aug)--44.244.4
10:00USDISM Manufacturing New Orders Index(Aug)--46.347.3
10:00USDISM Manufacturing PMI(Aug) ***--4746.4
10:00USDISM Manufacturing Prices Paid(Aug)--43.942.6
Fractional moves

S&P over 4500
APPL wants to break 190.
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Do you have any thoughts on TSLA?
 
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mr.h said:
I own, but it’s a long term investment. I’m not expecting a big move up anytime soon, but I added more when competitors started using Tesla’s charging stations. BTW my charging station stocks are down…a lot…
wait for the next big drop…lol
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I'm also long term and own a lot. My conundrum is trying to make sense of all the moving parts. There is way more to TSLA then just the cars they make.
 
MONDAY
Stocks were higher in Europe and Asia on Monday following a report that signaled the US jobs market, while still healthy, shows some signs of cooling, raising hopes for an easing of interest rate hikes.

Germany's DAX advanced 0.7% to 15,949.69 and the CAC 40 in Paris picked up 0.8% to 7,354.96. In London, the FTSE 100 was up 0.8% at 7,522.38.

The futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.2%. U.S. markets will be closed for the Labor Day holiday.

"It appears that global markets are primed to be smitten with the idea of a ‘Nirvana' Fed tightening outcome, entailing the ‘immaculate dis-inflation' that does not cause employment pain," Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank said in a commentary.

Apart from the favorable jobs data, fresh stimulus from China's financial regulators for the beleaguered property sector also supported buying. They have cut down-payment requirements for first and second-time home buyers and lowered rates on existing mortgages, noted Yeap Jun Rong of IG.
 
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