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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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Cmuri said:
That was a nasty overnight rug pull. Thought we were heading for a solid Green Day with AI rallying.
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I don’t think we are going to see the Dow dip into the 32 thousands. Just a hunch. Dow Jones is a buy in the low 33 thousands.
 
SpikeUM said:
The Fed's "Dual Mandate" is essentially political BS. What they *really* cares about is wage inflation, and with the initial jobless claims going down, and the new very expensive contracts signed by the airlines and UPS means that wage inflation is not tamed.
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We are most certainly showing slower growth...
 
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Powell: job openings declined but Fed is prepared to raise rates, but will proceed cautiously.
restrictive monetary policies may still be needed. Growth could warrant further tightening.
Economy needs to cool..
His comments could have been worse, but still aggressive.
 
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Nice little comeback. I guess investors had to digest what the FED had to say.
More caution and we are near the end of rate hikes….maybe
 
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GladeCane said:
Yes, now end this insane war and we'll really start moving up.
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The war has little to maybe literally nothing to do with what is going on right now. In fact, if the war ended tomorrow, my guess is short term, yes the market would go up, but the exuberance will lead to more inflation and thus more rate hikes. Having written that, my sense is that the Fed wont hike again, but I also dont see them cutting anytime soon.

FWIW, ML has them raising one more time year, then cutting 75 bps in Q4 of '24. I dont see that, but they are supposed to be the experts.
 
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SpikeUM said:
The war has little to maybe literally nothing to do with what is going on right now. In fact, if the war ended tomorrow, my guess is short term, yes the market would go up, but the exuberance will lead to more inflation and thus more rate hikes. Having written that, my sense is that the Fed wont hike again, but I also dont see them cutting anytime soon.

FWIW, ML has them raising one more time year, then cutting 75 bps in Q4 of '24. I dont see that, but they are supposed to be the experts.
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My reference to the war is it contributes to GEO Political Instability, and its possible effect on financial markets.
 
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GladeCane said:
My reference to the war is it contributes to GEO Political Instability, and its possible effect on financial markets.
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I think the big change would be Putin getting taken out vs the war simply ending. This would potentially end sanctions and allow for more oil exporting thus lower inflation globally.

The other big change that could cause an extended railing would be Xi stepping down in China. If the USA has a debt crisis, I’m not sure what you would call China’s 52T debt disaster.


No matter what happens in the short to near term, we need congress to step up and slow the bleeding or the USA will be no better off than China.


In the near term, the liquidity crunch is building. It will be very interesting to see if those shorts win or the margin investors get called first. Lots of leverage in the market still and things could get ugly soon especially if the FED hikes one more time.
 
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SpikeUM said:
Re our earlier discussion, if you are an investor, you follow the money.

Young Rich Workers Flee NY and Cali

www.cnbc.com

Young, rich workers are fleeing New York and California—here's where they're going

This state might be known as a retirement destination, but it's attracting plenty of young — and wealthy — newcomers.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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The trade off going to a low tax states are, and I’ll use Texas as an example, lower rated public schools, loss of women’s rights, poor infrastructure, like the electrical grid, a nationalist agenda, racism, a gun culture and lower pay, to name a few problems. Pretty soon the 15% corporate tax will kick in for companies making over a billion dollars.
The poorest states are almost exclusively in the Deep South.
go ahead and neg me.
 
mr.h said:
The trade off going to a low tax states are, and I’ll use Texas as an example, lower rated public schools, loss of women’s rights, poor infrastructure, like the electrical grid, a nationalist agenda, racism, a gun culture and lower pay, to name a few problems. Pretty soon the 15% corporate tax will kick in for companies making over a billion dollars.
The poorest states are almost exclusively in the Deep South.
go ahead and neg me.
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I have no idea why people would think a national divorce is inevitable.
 
mr.h said:
The trade off going to a low tax states are, and I’ll use Texas as an example, lower rated public schools, loss of women’s rights, poor infrastructure, like the electrical grid, a nationalist agenda, racism, a gun culture and lower pay, to name a few problems. Pretty soon the 15% corporate tax will kick in for companies making over a billion dollars.
The poorest states are almost exclusively in the Deep South.
go ahead and neg me.
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Everyone is entitled to their opinion, you shouldnt be "negged" for voicing it. I do disagree with you, and a lot of blue staters especially wealthy ones, appear to agree also. Also remember that its not just individuals moving, its companies too, and its also investors not willing to invest.

BTW, I dont think people care about taxes if they are getting value out of them; they arent though, in almost all blue cities/states. Why move to NYC, Chicago, Portland, Seattle, SFO, LA, etc. to pay much higher taxes, have a much higher cost of living and experience rampant crime?
 

08:55		USDRedbook Index (YoY)(Aug 25)4.2% --2.9%
09:00USDHousing Price Index (MoM)(Jun)0.3% 0.620.2%0.7%
09:00USDS&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)(Jun)-1.2% 0.34-1.3%-1.7%
10:00USDConsumer Confidence(Aug)----
10:00USDJOLTS Job Openings(Jul)8.827M-1.609.465M9.165M
NEW YORK, Aug. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July.

Jolt job openings and lower consumer confidence are another example of bad news could be seen as good news.
lower job openings could lead to lower inflation and consumer confidence dropped, in my opinion, because of possible Fed hikes and inflation.
I guess the mkt. thinks this could keep rate hikes in check.
Employment numbers should be lower than the 300,000 plus surprise we had last month…jmo
On the other side, Same store sales are up.
correct me if I’m wrong
 
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