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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
I’ve read that the treasury moving $400b into banks and the economy to prevent the debt ceiling/default is the cause for the latest round of equity price increases. Now that this round is mostly done…last 1-5 days… most investments should be dropping. The FED going with .25 vs Super hawkish .5 likely helped too. Overall, I’m still thinking we see unemployment increase as the housing market cools. Maybe we see a unicorn of warm housing, inflation drop, Fed pause then QE all in 2023.
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The sooner the Fed realizes that inflation at 3-4% is being realistic, the better our economy will be.
 
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90scane said:
I’ve read that the treasury moving $400b into banks and the economy to prevent the debt ceiling/default is the cause for the latest round of equity price increases. Now that this round is mostly done…last 1-5 days… most investments should be dropping. The FED going with .25 vs Super hawkish .5 likely helped too. Overall, I’m still thinking we see unemployment increase as the housing market cools. Maybe we see a unicorn of warm housing, inflation drop, Fed pause then QE all in 2023.
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Wow. Quantitive Easing? I would say incremental tightening would help keep real estate at Q4 2022 prices.
 
Are we still in a bear market? The economy is slowing and earnings are down, but we seem to have a better chance of a soft landing
Big day tomorrow. Hopefully month to month cpi is fractional and year to year drops.
we may see a bigger drop in PPI on Thursda.
 
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USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Jan)0.5% 00.5%0.1%

USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Jan)0.4% 00.4%0.4%

USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Jan) TRADE NOW5.6% 0.715.5%5.7
 
CPI is lower, but higher than estimated. We are not going to get to 2% inflation unless we destroy the economy..
3-4% is doable.
7th consecutive decline in inflation, but moving slowly.
 
Core cpi increased thus expect more rate hikes. That or the Fed is willing to have absolutely zero credibility.
 
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TheEye said:
What if the Fed backs off short term rates and focused exclusively on longterm?
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Do you mean increasing by .5 every other meeting vs .25 every meeting?

I believe .25 is a lock for March and now May due to the core increase. Now maybe Jan, Feb, Mar core cpi drops thus making the May hike less likely. Hard to see a big enough drop for the Fed to pause.
 
TheEye said:
What if the Fed backs off short term rates and focused exclusively on longterm?
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why would they do that? Short term rates are affecting us now. Please tell me….
PPI is Thursday which is more forward looking as it shows the prices before it’s past on to consumers.
CPI is backwards looking..jmo
 
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mr.h said:
why would they do that? Short term rates are affecting us now. Please tell me….
PPI is Thursday which is more forward looking as it shows the prices before it’s past on to consumers.
CPI is backwards looking..jmo
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Longterm rates, like 30 year mortgages and treasuries, are still quite low compared to historic averages. I was told quantitative easing keeps them low. If that were the case, then back off on prime rate tightening and just focus on QT. That would encourage longterm savings, undo the inverted yield curve and keep real estate prices at the current levels.
 
30 year mortgages could actually come down still. No one is buying bonds and the spread is still very high. It is a really odd market. No one feels safe yet bonds aren’t taking off.
 
more strong numbers for retail
13:30USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Feb) -5.80.84-18-32.9

13:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Jan) 3% 3.691.8% -1.1%
13:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Jan) 1.7% 3.690.3% -0.7%
13:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Jan) 2.3% 2.630.8% -0.9%
 
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Cmuri said:
Hit piece came in right at the bottom. Jan 6
@SpikeUM
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Munger from Berkshire said Chinese electric cars are killed Tesla. He mentioned one brand, but I’m too lazy to look it up. Munger is also adding APPL.
IMO APPL is a $200. Stock and should hit $175 sooner rather than later. I also think Google will catch up with AI but will lose advertising money. Hopefully they make it up with their cloud services.

PPI numbers tomorrow.
 
mr.h said:
Munger from Berkshire said Chinese electric cars are killed Tesla. He mentioned one brand, but I’m too lazy to look it up. Munger is also adding APPL.
IMO APPL is a $200. Stock and should hit $175 sooner rather than later. I also think Google will catch up with AI but will lose advertising money. Hopefully they make it up with their cloud services.

PPI numbers tomorrow.
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It’s probably byd
 
Lots of tech popping tonight. It’s gonna be volatile this week

ROKU
Shop
Ttd
Twilio
Cisco.
💰💰💰

Zillow now down(I don’t own any)
 
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