Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[90scane]

Search engine rank: Google #1, Youtube #2 , Bing #3 (not even close). ChatGPT reminds me of AskJeeves.

 

[90scane]

I’ve read that the treasury moving $400b into banks and the economy to prevent the debt ceiling/default is the cause for the latest round of equity price increases. Now that this round is mostly done…last 1-5 days… most investments should be dropping. The FED going with .25 vs Super hawkish .5 likely helped too. Overall, I’m still thinking we see unemployment increase as the housing market cools. Maybe we see a unicorn of warm housing, inflation drop, Fed pause then QE all in 2023.

 

[mr.h]

I’ve read that the treasury moving $400b into banks and the economy to prevent the debt ceiling/default is the cause for the latest round of equity price increases. Now that this round is mostly done…last 1-5 days… most investments should be dropping. The FED going with .25 vs Super hawkish .5 likely helped too. Overall, I’m still thinking we see unemployment increase as the housing market cools. Maybe we see a unicorn of warm housing, inflation drop, Fed pause then QE all in 2023.

The sooner the Fed realizes that inflation at 3-4% is being realistic, the better our economy will be.

 

[TheEye]

I’ve read that the treasury moving $400b into banks and the economy to prevent the debt ceiling/default is the cause for the latest round of equity price increases. Now that this round is mostly done…last 1-5 days… most investments should be dropping. The FED going with .25 vs Super hawkish .5 likely helped too. Overall, I’m still thinking we see unemployment increase as the housing market cools. Maybe we see a unicorn of warm housing, inflation drop, Fed pause then QE all in 2023.

Wow. Quantitive Easing? I would say incremental tightening would help keep real estate at Q4 2022 prices.

 

[mr.h]

Are we still in a bear market? The economy is slowing and earnings are down, but we seem to have a better chance of a soft landing
Big day tomorrow. Hopefully month to month cpi is fractional and year to year drops.
we may see a bigger drop in PPI on Thursda.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

With a healthy dividend

Indeed. Bought a few chunks of IEP when it dropped down to $50~.

16% yield on the DIV down there.

 

[mr.h]

USD

Consumer Price Index (MoM)(Jan)

0.5%

0

0.5%

0.1%

USD

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Jan)

0.4%

0

0.4%

0.4%

USD

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Jan) TRADE NOW

5.6%

0.71

5.5%

5.7

 

[mr.h]

CPI is lower, but higher than estimated. We are not going to get to 2% inflation unless we destroy the economy..
3-4% is doable.
7th consecutive decline in inflation, but moving slowly.

 

[90scane]

Core cpi increased thus expect more rate hikes. That or the Fed is willing to have absolutely zero credibility.

 

[mr.h]

Core cpi increased thus expect more rate hikes. That or the Fed is willing to have absolutely zero credibility.

as long as it doesn’t require a 50 basis pts. hike.

 

[TheEye]

as long as it doesn’t require a 50 basis pts. hike.

What if the Fed backs off short term rates and focused exclusively on longterm?

 

[90scane]

What if the Fed backs off short term rates and focused exclusively on longterm?

Do you mean increasing by .5 every other meeting vs .25 every meeting?

I believe .25 is a lock for March and now May due to the core increase. Now maybe Jan, Feb, Mar core cpi drops thus making the May hike less likely. Hard to see a big enough drop for the Fed to pause.

 

[mr.h]

What if the Fed backs off short term rates and focused exclusively on longterm?

why would they do that? Short term rates are affecting us now. Please tell me….
PPI is Thursday which is more forward looking as it shows the prices before it’s past on to consumers.
CPI is backwards looking..jmo

 

[561caneforever]

The Federal Government (with its out of control spending) and Federal Reserve are rowing in opposite directions. Ultimately no real progress is being made.

 

[Cmuri]

Abnb up big afterhours after giving + guidance.

 

[TheEye]

why would they do that? Short term rates are affecting us now. Please tell me….
PPI is Thursday which is more forward looking as it shows the prices before it’s past on to consumers.
CPI is backwards looking..jmo

Longterm rates, like 30 year mortgages and treasuries, are still quite low compared to historic averages. I was told quantitative easing keeps them low. If that were the case, then back off on prime rate tightening and just focus on QT. That would encourage longterm savings, undo the inverted yield curve and keep real estate prices at the current levels.

 

[90scane]

30 year mortgages could actually come down still. No one is buying bonds and the spread is still very high. It is a really odd market. No one feels safe yet bonds aren’t taking off.

 

[mr.h]

more strong numbers for retail

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Feb)

-5.8

0.84

-18

-32.9

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM)(Jan)

3%

3.69

1.8%

-1.1%

13:30		USD	Retail Sales Control Group(Jan)		1.7%	3.69	0.3%	-0.7%

13:30		USD	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Jan)		2.3%	2.63	0.8%	-0.9%

 

[Cmuri]

@Cmuri

Tesla’s Already Bringing Its Gloom Into 2023. Elon Musk Needs to Act Now.

Electric vehicles and artificial intelligence featured at CES 2023, no House Speaker means no Congressional business, Samsung’s poor performance may have implications for Apple, and other news to start your day.

www.barrons.com

Hit piece came in right at the bottom. Jan 6
@SpikeUM

 

[mr.h]

Hit piece came in right at the bottom. Jan 6
@SpikeUM

Munger from Berkshire said Chinese electric cars are killed Tesla. He mentioned one brand, but I’m too lazy to look it up. Munger is also adding APPL.
IMO APPL is a $200. Stock and should hit $175 sooner rather than later. I also think Google will catch up with AI but will lose advertising money. Hopefully they make it up with their cloud services.

PPI numbers tomorrow.