Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[SpikeUM]

Excerpt from a ML research piece from their chief economist:

Macro viewpoint: More “stag,” more “flation” We are growing increasingly pessimistic about next year as key inflation indicators continue to hint at a larger persistent component, and severe overheating in the labor market continues. This suggests that the Fed will have to push the unemployment rate up in 2023 and 2024. The market is also starting to respond to the Fed’s message, with the kind of financial tightening needed to eventually “achieve” that near-zero growth outcome by late next year. We revise our outlook to show even weaker growth next year and higher inflation.

 

[mr.h]

bgt. goog at $2155
bgt. APPL at $135

 

[SpikeUM]

Analysis: Crypto crash leaves El Salvador with no easy exit from worsening crisis

El Salvador's big bet on bitcoin, which the Central American nation has been buying since September, has soured in recent weeks as a cryptocurrency rout shaved over a third of the value of the government's holdings, Reuters calculations show.

www.reuters.com

 

[GladeCane]

Excerpt from a ML research piece from their chief economist:

Macro viewpoint: More “stag,” more “flation” We are growing increasingly pessimistic about next year as key inflation indicators continue to hint at a larger persistent component, and severe overheating in the labor market continues. This suggests that the Fed will have to push the unemployment rate up in 2023 and 2024. The market is also starting to respond to the Fed’s message, with the kind of financial tightening needed to eventually “achieve” that near-zero growth outcome by late next year. We revise our outlook to show even weaker growth next year and higher inflation.

I just don't see anything near term that is positive for the markets. A persistent war involving a super power, a pandemic that won't go away and a president who is clearly not all there. These are still huge issues, any one of which gets worse and markets watch out.

I haven't been this pessimistic since the financial crisis.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Like to hear people's opinion on TSLA.

It's off my board. I don't trust the mental well-being or honesty of MGMT.

Tesla’s Aura Dims as Its Plunging Stock Highlights the Risks It Faces

Production problems in China and Elon Musk’s pursuit of Twitter are leading investors to wonder whether the electric car company is worth as much as they thought.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GladeCane]

Tesla’s Aura Dims as Its Plunging Stock Highlights the Risks It Faces

Production problems in China and Elon Musk’s pursuit of Twitter are leading investors to wonder whether the electric car company is worth as much as they thought.

www.nytimes.com

There not the only game in town, everybody is coming out with an electric vehicle.

 

[SpikeUM]

There not the only game in town, everybody is coming out with an electric vehicle.

The following is a car discussion not a stock discussion. I have been driving Teslas almost from the very beginning, simply because I like the way electric cars drive.

Up until now, with the possible exception of Ford, no manufacturer comes close to the technology and the range of a Tesla. To add to that, I continually look to see what EV's are coming out in the future, and other than Ford and the Fisker Ocean, there is nothing out that will challenge Tesla for several years.

 

[GladeCane]

The following is a car discussion not a stock discussion. I have been driving Teslas almost from the very beginning, simply because I like the way electric cars drive.

Up until now, with the possible exception of Ford, no manufacturer comes close to the technology and the range of a Tesla. To add to that, I continually look to see what EV's are coming out in the future, and other than Ford and the Fisker Ocean, there is nothing out that will challenge Tesla for several years.

I personally don't like the idea of having to plug in every time I come home and what about those living in apartments?

Technology is just not there yet.

 

[Bird4um]

I personally don't like the idea of having to plug in every time I come home and what about those living in apartments?

Technology is just not there yet.

Needing a car now is not good. If you can hold your ice car for a few more years go for it. Unless gas hits 6$ a gallon. Which I’m hearing it might this summer.
EV tech is just about here. I’d say 3 years. I’m positive my next car will be electric.

Guy I follow says most ICE car companies will be bankrupt by 2030. Way too late to the game. Watch an under the hood comparison YouTube video of MACH E v Tesla. What Tesla does with 1 piece Ford does with 20.

Tesla price point should be even with ice in a few years. Only reason to buy ice then would be for the looks. And I agree. Tesla needs to change its model design.

 

[GladeCane]

Needing a car now is not good. If you can hold your ice car for a few more years go for it. Unless gas hits 6$ a gallon. Which I’m hearing it might this summer.
EV tech is just about here. I’d say 3 years. I’m positive my next car will be electric.

Guy I follow says most ICE car companies will be bankrupt by 2030. Way too late to the game. Watch an under the hood comparison YouTube video of MACH E v Tesla. What Tesla does with 1 piece Ford does with 20.

Tesla price point should be even with ice in a few years. Only reason to buy ice then would be for the looks. And I agree. Tesla needs to change its model design.

Just bought a hybrid. Will be buying another car, probably a hybrid again real soon.

 

[SpikeUM]

I personally don't like the idea of having to plug in every time I come home and what about those living in apartments?

Technology is just not there yet.

I think EV's are still 7-10 years away from being useful for the whole population. All of the government hoopla around them is mostly bull****.

 

[SpikeUM]

Needing a car now is not good. If you can hold your ice car for a few more years go for it. Unless gas hits 6$ a gallon. Which I’m hearing it might this summer.
EV tech is just about here. I’d say 3 years. I’m positive my next car will be electric.

Guy I follow says most ICE car companies will be bankrupt by 2030. Way too late to the game. Watch an under the hood comparison YouTube video of MACH E v Tesla. What Tesla does with 1 piece Ford does with 20.

Tesla price point should be even with ice in a few years. Only reason to buy ice then would be for the looks. And I agree. Tesla needs to change its model design.

First, follow a different guy.

Second, the biggest cost component of an EV is the battery, which needs lithium. There is a huge shortage of lithium in the world, resulting in the price of it doubling just THIS YEAR, and thats with car sales restricted because of the lack of semis. So at no time in the near future will EV sell at ICE prices.

 

[calinative umstudent]

First, follow a different guy.

Second, the biggest cost component of an EV is the battery, which needs lithium. There is a huge shortage of lithium in the world, resulting in the price of it doubling just THIS YEAR, and thats with car sales restricted because of the lack of semis. So at no time in the near future will EV sell at ICE prices.

There is not a huge shortage of lithium itself though. What you are referring to has to do with mining/extracting. Lithium is very common. Cobalt can be completely eliminated with LFP batteries - which many Chinese Manufacturers use, and Tesla has already switched to for all their non- Long range/performance models. Nickel is probably the more long-term constraint with Russia producing >10% of the worlds supply. That's why Tesla may be announcing a manufacturing plant in Indonesia within the next year or two (Musk recently met with their president). They produce something crazy like >35% of the supply of Nickel. And they are making a point to emphasize that companies wont just be able to take their nickel and manufacture out of the country...

EVs wont sell at ICE prices because demand will far exceed supply over the next 3 years, regardless if they are at cost parity or not - and they absolutely will be for certain vehicles like the Made in China Model 3/Y. Plus ICE R&D costs will be immediately coming to $0. If traditional OEMs were smart theyd immediately start selling off their Engine manufacturing facilities and just buying from Cummins and the like. Dump it all.

Some ICE companies absolutely will go bankrupt or at least will be bailed out by their government and/or shrink substantially. EVs are the mid and long term future. The companies that are moving too slowly to secure their Battery Manufacturing and material Supply will struggle to meet emission requirements in the EU. China has a **** load of major EV manufacturers AND Tesla with a large footprint and is about to expand rapidly....

But betting on companies like Rivian and Lucid or Canoo to come in and force these traditional OEMs out of business? Not happening. Teslas aren't common. They've actually very uncommon. Tesla and Ford are the only American high volume manufacturers to have not gone bankrupt. Especially with a recession likely if not present. These startups aren't likely to be cash flow positive anytime soon. Rivian has a sizeable reserve but is burning through cash. Luckily they have a great product. The other startups that are good are mostly/all Chinese.

 

[Mikeiavelli]

I've been posting updates about my favorite EV startup play on here for a month or so...Mullen.

They have partnered to join the solid state battery push, and are finishing up final testing of their battery, which they claim to hold a 600 mile range for their upcoming Mullen FIVE SUV.

Here is a fairly recent article regarding some companies pushing for solid state batteries...including Mullen.

Are Solid-State Battery Stocks a Good Investment?

Solid-state battery stocks have come off their highs. Are solid-state battery stocks a good investment and what stocks look like good buys now?

marketrealist.com

 

[calinative umstudent]

Like to hear people's opinion on TSLA.

Zero debt.

Like 32% margins.

Currently ramping 2 Factories in Texas and Berlin. Expanding in Shanghai. Just from Current operational factories they will likely be able to manufacture 3-4M vehicles by 2025. Then they Will likely be announcing another factory or two within the next 24 months - and they have a track record of getting factories operational in just 2 years and volume production in 3 years. They are also doing more than the rest of the industry to guarantee future Cell AND material supply - which is critical.

Great Robotaxi strategy - making significant money from their ADAS which will evolve into Self Driving. Basically the only Auto Company currently making money from Software as a Service. FSD costs over $10K TODAY. And thats without it even being above L2.
And then you add they control the Charging, service, and sales (dealership), have complete control of their customers data which they are using to create their own insurance at a significant discount to their customers over anybody else - adding the ability to gamify their driving to make them safer drivers. Then you also add they sell Solar and Stationary Storage. Solar has been a net negative while stationary storage has been a net positive. But overall its good because it'll eventually be profitable and they are just further locking their customers into the Tesla brand with some of the largest investments (besides an actual house) that people make in their life.

Tesla is a Free Cash Flow Machine. Their business has never been stronger than it is today.

 

[Bird4um]

Zero debt.

Like 32% margins.

Currently ramping 2 Factories in Texas and Berlin. Expanding in Shanghai. Just from Current operational factories they will likely be able to manufacture 3-4M vehicles by 2025. Then they Will likely be announcing another factory or two within the next 24 months - and they have a track record of getting factories operational in just 2 years and volume production in 3 years. They are also doing more than the rest of the industry to guarantee future Cell AND material supply - which is critical.

Great Robotaxi strategy - making significant money from their ADAS which will evolve into Self Driving. Basically the only Auto Company currently making money from Software as a Service. FSD costs over $10K TODAY. And thats without it even being above L2.
And then you add they control the Charging, service, and sales (dealership), have complete control of their customers data which they are using to create their own insurance at a significant discount to their customers over anybody else - adding the ability to gamify their driving to make them safer drivers. Then you also add they sell Solar and Stationary Storage. Solar has been a net negative while stationary storage has been a net positive. But overall its good because it'll eventually be profitable and they are just further locking their customers into the Tesla brand with some of the largest investments (besides an actual house) that people make in their life.

Tesla is a Free Cash Flow Machine. Their business has never been stronger than it is today.

This guy

 

[Bird4um]

Self driving software will be extra 10k pure profit with the flip of a switch. Per car.

 

[Kjdcanefan]

Been driving a plug in hybrid for awhile now. Check out the company Lightyear, they have a solar hybrid that might roll out for 2023. Ticker: SPWR

 

[calinative umstudent]

Been driving a plug in hybrid for awhile now. Check out the company Lightyear, they have a solar hybrid that might roll out for 2023. Ticker: SPWR

It will NEVER make more sense to put solar on the vehicle instead of on the house/building/whatever. The area of a vehicle is just too small. And importantly cars crash, houses don’t.

At least if it was a truck or vehicle you’d go camping with, that limited amount of energy generated could be useful, but on a sedan? Doubt it. Far better investment is just increasing chargers and/or improving charge rate.

 

[Kjdcanefan]

It will NEVER make more sense to put solar on the vehicle instead of on the house/building/whatever. The area of a vehicle is just too small. And importantly cars crash, houses don’t.

At least if it was a truck or vehicle you’d go camping with, that limited amount of energy generated could be useful, but on a sedan? Doubt it. Far better investment is just increasing chargers and/or improving charge rate.

Well at this level of technology obviously. Competition is breeding innovation though, and 10-20 years from now the technology will be much better than today.