Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[AutoCANE]

VFF ....sadface.

Agreed...it hit my stop this morning unfortunately

Example A of growth taking a beating: TTD - huge beat, great forward guidance, 10 for 1 split....followed by a massive selloff and plunge. Selling the news obviously...but I am thinking this looks like a golden buy opportunity. Perhaps I am being naive.

 

[Tdvv]

Agreed...it hit my stop this morning unfortunately

Example A of growth taking a beating: TTD - huge beat, great forward guidance, 10 for 1 split....followed by a massive selloff and plunge. Selling the news obviously...but I am thinking this looks like a golden buy opportunity. Perhaps I am being naive.

Sold vff this morning as well.

I normally have 50 holdings in my portfolio and now I am down to 5 as I do not have any faith in this market. Any news = price drop

 

[NateDogg]

Sold vff this morning as well.

I normally have 50 holdings in my portfolio and now I am down to 5 as I do not have any faith in this market. Any news = price drop

How do some stocks plummet after overwhelming positive news, such as Square's recent earnings...and then a company like US Steel announces they are closing one of their biggest plants down for service and repairs, during PEAK season for the steel industry...and their stock rockets even higher?

I am not a day trader and previously considered myself to be someone with average knowledge when it came to the stock market, but the last 15 months have made me realize I either never had a clue...or whatever I once had a basic knowledge of no longer applies. Or both?

 

[Fluffhead]

How do some stocks plummet after overwhelming positive news, such as Square's recent earnings...and then a company like US Steel announces they are closing one of their biggest plants down for service and repairs, during PEAK season for the steel industry...and their stock rockets even higher?

I am not a day trader and previously considered myself to be someone with average knowledge when it came to the stock market, but the last 15 months have made me realize I either never had a clue...or whatever I once had a basic knowledge of no longer applies. Or both?

Said this a page or two back but it has made me go back to Bogle's ETF philosophy. Last couple of years you could have thrown darts at a board and hit a winner, but it is a lot harder to beat the indexes in these sorts of times. Agree with you 100% that this market is entirely irrational right now, and the built in diversification of an ETF gives me a bit of comfort.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

VFF ....sadface.

Meh. Quarter was about right. They grew a little bit while their competitors were down. Sector has been brutal. Feels like an overreaction to me. I'll be adding LEAPS down here. Surprised we got below $10 tbh. Long term, thesis is still the same.

 

[CFLCane]

Meh. Quarter was about right. They grew a little bit while their competitors were down. Sector has been brutal. Feels like an overreaction to me. I'll be adding LEAPS down here. Surprised we got below $10 tbh. Long term, thesis is still the same.

Ya definitely an overreaction. My mistake for letting my guard down though. Lessons learned the hard way.

 

[George84]

VFF has completed the round trip for me....right back to where I started. Buying those LEAPs around $16 probably doesn't kill me long-term, but **** it's hard to look at the value lost today. Not feeling great about the Jan '22 strike, but not worried about the Jan '23. Probably hold back here for a few days and see where it goes--if we get under $8 I may pick up a few more to bring the DCA down. Rough 3 months for growth stocks and probably rougher days ahead. Stay safe out there--Keep the stop losses GTC.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

VFF has completed the round trip for me....right back to where I started. Buying those LEAPs around $16 probably doesn't kill me long-term, but **** it's hard to look at the value lost today. Not feeling great about the Jan '22 strike, but not worried about the Jan '23. Probably hold back here for a few days and see where it goes--if we get under $8 I may pick up a few more to bring the DCA down. Rough 3 months for growth stocks and probably rougher days ahead. Stay safe out there--Keep the stop losses GTC.

I still feel ok about the Jan 22s.

I know, I am a broken record of optimism. And I can surely be wrong. I think there will be significant moves in the 2nd half of the year. Not sure what to say. I like the company. I like the management. They don't control the stock price. But things usually end up where they should.

 

[GladeCane]

Where do I start? The stock market seems a lil intimidating.

SPY, EQRR, ETHE.

 

[George84]

I still feel ok about the Jan 22s.

I know, I am a broken record of optimism. And I can surely be wrong. I think there will be significant moves in the 2nd half of the year. Not sure what to say. I like the company. I like the management. They don't control the stock price. But things usually end up where they should.

Just bought more VFF commons at $8.05. Ugh. I hate this.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

 

[AutoCANE]

Lots of warning signs flashing right now...

 

[Fluffhead]

I sold out of Palantir at a small loss. May be impatient, and nice top line growth, but doubling of operating loss did not make me feel comfortable in the current climate. Have a feeling I will be able to re-buy this one much lower.

Lots of good companies that are growing, profitable, etc. getting tossed with the bathwater (looking at you AMD, Apple, Rocket).

 

[Bird4um]

Quick Take
Newsletter: Predictive Profits
Stock: Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO, BRPHF)
Travis’ take: Lichtenfeld is teasing Galaxy as the best one-stop shop for cryptocurrency exposure, and I agree that’s a decent strategy (albeit a high risk one). I’ve been buying into Galaxy Digital in recent weeks, and ramped up that position today by adding it to the Lock Box portfolio as well. I like their range of exposure to cryptocurrency and blockchain projects (facilitating trading, managing funds, investment banking services for crypto companies, venture capital investments, prime brokerage, etc.), which gives them more levers to pull than most crypto-related stocks, and the valuation, while fairly high and based on bitcoin prices to a large degree, is justifiable for a speculator and could turn out to be downright cheap if Bitcoin has another strong year or two. I’m keeping my exposure to cryptos under some control, so I sold some Ethereum and a few other minor tokens to make room for more Galaxy.

 

[GladeCane]

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, ...."

 

[CFLCane]

@Cryptical Envelopment

Potential future end users (albeit a little down the road)

2024 Intels new 20B$ plant expectated to start production in the Phoenix area
2024 Taiwan Semi Conductor 12B$ plant expected to start production in the Phoenix area (with multiple more AZ plants in the plans)
2020 NXP opened a plant in the Phoenix area
Samsung has narrowed down to AZ/NY/Texas for another 17B$ plant

The surrounding Phoenix area is becoming a global hub for semiconductor manufacturing.

The proximity is a massive advantage for reasons i explained in prior post. Phoenix is less than 200 miles from the Holbrook basin.

Where things really get exciting is that the investor presentation is based on the low end crude helium price of 279$ per MCF. Grade 5.5 and Grade 6 Helium is selling for 3000$ MCF. Chip manufacturing requires the two highest purities of Helium. Grades 6 and Grades 5.5.

@Cryptical Envelopmenta

Edit : fixed a formula error, reposted chart

Put together a quick spread sheet to model out potential share prices based on different MCF Prices, Successful Wells, and Revenue Multiples. I'd expect average MCF prices to fall in the 1100/1600 range. Typical revenue multiples in the sector are 7x, I included a 3x model just in case.

Desert Mountain Energy
	Helium Price
Well Count	MCF BASIS	Annual Revenue Per Well	Total Revenue	Revenue 3x	Revenue 7x	Outstanding shares	Share Price w/3x Multiple	Share Price w/7x Multiple
70	275	8,942,000	625,940,000	1,877,820,000	4,381,580,000	59,100,000	$31.77	$74.14
60	275	8,942,000	536,520,000	1,609,560,000	3,755,640,000	59,100,000	$27.23	$63.55
50	275	8,942,000	447,100,000	1,341,300,000	3,129,700,000	59,100,000	$22.70	$52.96
40	275	8,942,000	357,680,000	1,073,040,000	2,503,760,000	59,100,000	$18.16	$42.36
70	550	17,884,000	1,251,880,000	3,755,640,000	8,763,160,000	59,100,000	$63.55	$148.28
60	550	17,884,000	1,073,040,000	3,219,120,000	7,511,280,000	59,100,000	$54.47	$127.09
50	550	17,884,000	894,200,000	2,682,600,000	6,259,400,000	59,100,000	$45.39	$105.91
40	550	17,884,000	715,360,000	2,146,080,000	5,007,520,000	59,100,000	$36.31	$84.73
70	1100	35,768,000	2,503,760,000	7,511,280,000	17,526,320,000	59,100,000	$127.09	$296.55
60	1100	35,768,000	2,146,080,000	6,438,240,000	15,022,560,000	59,100,000	$108.94	$254.19
50	1100	35,768,000	1,788,400,000	5,365,200,000	12,518,800,000	59,100,000	$90.78	$211.82
40	1100	35,768,000	1,430,720,000	4,292,160,000	10,015,040,000	59,100,000	$72.63	$169.46
70	1600	52,025,600	3,641,792,000	10,925,376,000	25,492,544,000	59,100,000	$184.86	$431.35
60	1600	52,025,600	3,121,536,000	9,364,608,000	21,850,752,000	59,100,000	$158.45	$369.73
50	1600	52,025,600	2,601,280,000	7,803,840,000	18,208,960,000	59,100,000	$132.04	$308.10
40	1600	52,025,600	2,081,024,000	6,243,072,000	14,567,168,000	59,100,000	$105.64	$246.48
70	2100	68,283,600	4,779,852,000	14,339,556,000	33,458,964,000	59,100,000	$242.63	$566.14
60	2100	68,283,600	4,097,016,000	12,291,048,000	28,679,112,000	59,100,000	$207.97	$485.26
50	2100	68,283,600	3,414,180,000	10,242,540,000	23,899,260,000	59,100,000	$173.31	$404.39
40	2100	68,283,600	2,731,344,000	8,194,032,000	19,119,408,000	59,100,000	$138.65	$323.51
70	2600	84,541,600	5,917,912,000	17,753,736,000	41,425,384,000	59,100,000	$300.40	$700.94
60	2600	84,541,600	5,072,496,000	15,217,488,000	35,507,472,000	59,100,000	$257.49	$600.80
50	2600	84,541,600	4,227,080,000	12,681,240,000	29,589,560,000	59,100,000	$214.57	$500.67
40	2600	84,541,600	3,381,664,000	10,144,992,000	23,671,648,000	59,100,000	$171.66	$400.54
70	3100	100,799,600	7,055,972,000	21,167,916,000	49,391,804,000	59,100,000	$358.17	$835.73
60	3100	100,799,600	6,047,976,000	18,143,928,000	42,335,832,000	59,100,000	$307.00	$716.34
50	3100	100,799,600	5,039,980,000	15,119,940,000	35,279,860,000	59,100,000	$255.84	$596.95
40	3100	100,799,600	4,031,984,000	12,095,952,000	28,223,888,000	59,100,000	$204.67	$477.56

 

[SpikeUM]

Most of you are still playing the 2020 playbook. Its 2021.

 

[Bird4um]

Most of you are still playing the 2020 playbook. Its 2021.

What's the playbook say?

 

[GladeCane]

Most of you are still playing the 2020 playbook. Its 2021.

I think I know where you're going with this. I'd like to hear more, if you care to elaborate?

 

[SpikeUM]

What's the playbook say?

I am an investment professional, so I have be careful about public comments since I do not know the audience. PM if you would like to chat.

@GladeCane