Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[GladeCane]

Most of you are still playing the 2020 playbook. Its 2021.

I think I know where you're going with this. I'd like to hear more, if you care to elaborate?

 

[SpikeUM]

What's the playbook say?

I am an investment professional, so I have be careful about public comments since I do not know the audience. PM if you would like to chat.

@GladeCane

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

@Cryptical Envelopment

Put together a quick spread sheet to model out potential share prices based on different MCF Prices, Successful Wells, and Revenue Multiples. I'd expect average MCF prices to fall in the 1100/1600 range. Typical revenue multiples in the sector are 7x, I included a 3x model just in case.

Desert Mountain Energy
	Helium Price
Well Count	MCF BASIS	Annual Revenue Per Well	Total Revenue	Revenue 3x	Revenue 7x	Outstanding shares	Share Price w/3x Multiple	Share Price w/7x Multiple
70	275	8,942,000	625,940,000	1,877,820,000	4,381,580,000	59,100,000	$31.77	$74.14
60	275	8,942,000	536,520,000	1,609,560,000	3,755,640,000	59,100,000	$27.23	$63.55
50	275	8,942,000	447,100,000	1,341,300,000	3,129,700,000	59,100,000	$22.70	$52.96
40	275	8,942,000	357,680,000	1,073,040,000	2,503,760,000	59,100,000	$18.16	$42.36
70	550	17,884,000	1,251,880,000	3,755,640,000	8,763,160,000	59,100,000	$63.55	$148.28
60	550	17,884,000	1,073,040,000	3,219,120,000	7,511,280,000	59,100,000	$54.47	$127.09
50	550	17,884,000	894,200,000	2,682,600,000	6,259,400,000	59,100,000	$45.39	$105.91
40	550	17,884,000	715,360,000	2,146,080,000	5,007,520,000	59,100,000	$36.31	$84.73
70	1100	35,768,000	2,503,760,000	7,511,280,000	17,526,320,000	59,100,000	$127.09	$296.55
60	1100	35,768,000	2,146,080,000	6,438,240,000	15,022,560,000	59,100,000	$108.94	$254.19
50	1100	35,768,000	1,788,400,000	5,365,200,000	12,518,800,000	59,100,000	$90.78	$211.82
40	1100	35,768,000	1,430,720,000	4,292,160,000	10,015,040,000	59,100,000	$72.63	$169.46
70	1600	71,536,000	5,007,520,000	15,022,560,000	35,052,640,000	59,100,000	$254.19	$593.11
60	1600	71,536,000	4,292,160,000	12,876,480,000	30,045,120,000	59,100,000	$217.88	$508.38
50	1600	71,536,000	3,576,800,000	10,730,400,000	25,037,600,000	59,100,000	$181.56	$423.65
40	1600	71,536,000	2,861,440,000	8,584,320,000	20,030,080,000	59,100,000	$145.25	$338.92
70	2100	143,072,000	10,015,040,000	30,045,120,000	70,105,280,000	59,100,000	$508.38	$1,186.21
60	2100	143,072,000	8,584,320,000	25,752,960,000	60,090,240,000	59,100,000	$435.75	$1,016.76
50	2100	143,072,000	7,153,600,000	21,460,800,000	50,075,200,000	59,100,000	$363.13	$847.30
40	2100	143,072,000	5,722,880,000	17,168,640,000	40,060,160,000	59,100,000	$290.50	$677.84
70	2600	143,072,000	10,015,040,000	30,045,120,000	70,105,280,000	59,100,000	$508.38	$1,186.21
60	2600	286,144,000	17,168,640,000	51,505,920,000	120,180,480,000	59,100,000	$871.50	$2,033.51
50	2600	286,144,000	14,307,200,000	42,921,600,000	100,150,400,000	59,100,000	$726.25	$1,694.59
40	2600	286,144,000	11,445,760,000	34,337,280,000	80,120,320,000	59,100,000	$581.00	$1,355.67
70	3100	286,144,000	20,030,080,000	60,090,240,000	140,210,560,000	59,100,000	$1,016.76	$2,372.43
60	3100	286,144,000	17,168,640,000	51,505,920,000	120,180,480,000	59,100,000	$871.50	$2,033.51
50	3100	286,144,000	14,307,200,000	42,921,600,000	100,150,400,000	59,100,000	$726.25	$1,694.59
40	3100	286,144,000	11,445,760,000	34,337,280,000	80,120,320,000	59,100,000	$581.00	$1,355.67

Well, if I make $10M I will be sure to send you a thank you card!

I appreciate the DD you're doing on this. Thanks for sharing.

 

[GladeCane]

If your looking to short the market, here's one of my favorites. SQQQ (ultra pro short) gives you 3x the inverse of the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). So, if the QQQ is down 7%, you are up 7%.

 

[Bird4um]

If your looking to short the market, here's one of my favorites. SQQQ (ultra pro short) gives you 3x the inverse of the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ). So, if the QQQ is down 7%, you are up 7%.

Thinking of this. Maybe buy at the end of the day on an up day.

 

[GladeCane]

Thinking of this. Maybe buy at the end of the day on an up day.

This is when we can make a lot of money. Psychologically though it goes against the grain of human thought.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Been buying galaxy today.

 

[AutoCANE]

Anyone shopping the Musk-induced Galaxy sale today?

/edit - looks like @Cryptical Envelopment answered before I could ask the question LOL.

 

[GladeCane]

Anyone shopping the Musk-induced Galaxy sale today?

/edit - looks like @Cryptical Envelopment answered before I could ask the question LOL.

Elon Musk is truly an idiot. I can't believe he didn't know about Bitcoin's power draw.

 

[AutoCANE]

Elon Musk is truly an idiot. I can't believe he didn't know about Bitcoin's power draw.

Of course he knew, everybody knows! It's the only tangible downside of the crypto / DeFi movement. It seems incredibly clear to me that this is yet another example of blatant Musk market manipulation - and to think that it continues to be done in a public space such as Twitter! If Tesla or any of his other interests accumulate more cryptocurrency after the slide, there should be consequences in my opinion. But I don't know what kind of enforcement ability any agency has in the crypto space.

I am not typically a tin-foil hat type...but this dude is too much to take.

 

[Cribby]

I sold all my doge Saturday and put it all in amc

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Of course he knew, everybody knows! It's the only tangible downside of the crypto / DeFi movement. It seems incredibly clear to me that this is yet another example of blatant Musk market manipulation - and to think that it continues to be done in a public space such as Twitter! If Tesla or any of his other interests accumulate more cryptocurrency after the slide, there should be consequences in my opinion. But I don't know what kind of enforcement ability any agency has in the crypto space.

I am not typically a tin-foil hat type...but this dude is too much to take.

Downside? Or is it the solution. Anyone who is even sniffing crypto needs to watch this interview with my crypto spirit animal, Ross Stevens.

Bitcoin Interview with Ross Stevens & Michael Saylor

In this session, Michael Saylor Interviews Ross Stevens for Bitcoin, as the emerging dominant monetary network in crypto industry. Sharing its pros and cons over other assests.

www.microstrategy.com

 

[GladeCane]

Of course he knew, everybody knows! It's the only tangible downside of the crypto / DeFi movement. It seems incredibly clear to me that this is yet another example of blatant Musk market manipulation - and to think that it continues to be done in a public space such as Twitter! If Tesla or any of his other interests accumulate more cryptocurrency after the slide, there should be consequences in my opinion. But I don't know what kind of enforcement ability any agency has in the crypto space.

I am not typically a tin-foil hat type...but this dude is too much to take.

I'll steer clear of any investments involving good old Elon.

 

[GladeCane]

Downside? Or is it the solution. Anyone who is even sniffing crypto needs to watch this interview with my crypto spirit animal, Ross Stevens.

Bitcoin Interview with Ross Stevens & Michael Saylor

In this session, Michael Saylor Interviews Ross Stevens for Bitcoin, as the emerging dominant monetary network in crypto industry. Sharing its pros and cons over other assests.

www.microstrategy.com

Okay, got my homework!

 

[Tdvv]

Anyone shopping the Musk-induced Galaxy sale today?

/edit - looks like @Cryptical Envelopment answered before I could ask the question LOL.

bought several times on the way down.. ended up violating my own rule of not owning more than a certain % of any investment. so i wont be buying more if it goes lower...

 

[Bird4um]

Anyone worried about govt killing crypto?

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Okay, got my homework!

It's such an inspiring interview, it's not even work. It made me want to run through a wall for my coach.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

bought several times on the way down.. ended up violating my own rule of not owning more than a certain % of any investment. so i wont be buying more if it goes lower...

Up 14% today. So no worries, don't have to make that call.

Yesterday Galaxy was at $19.xx. On 3/30 galaxy reported Q4 / FY. It closed at $19.44. BTC was at $57k~ ETH was at $1800~. So were 5% above the price from 1.5 months ago. BTC is down about 12%. ETH is up about 130%.

We know Galaxy AUM is up 28% q/q as of 4/30. We KNOW they are acquiring BitGo and adding $40bn in AUM upon the deal closing. Need more or is that a good enough pep talk, fellas? Galaxy is just getting started.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

So. Let's talk about VFF again for a minute. Because... well, you know. I see a couple of you all got stopped out, etc.

Why did we buy VFF? Because we think they are going to be a $2B-$3B stock in due time (it's $700M~ now). I am also pretty sure they have been approached but told suiters to ***** off. Why? Because management probably thinks they will be a $5B company eventually. Why do we agree with them? Simply because they can make a quality product cheaper then the competition, and they are incredibly well positioned for international expansion when regulatory allows. TLRY, ACB, and OGI etc. have all reported. All down 10-20% q/q in revenue. I see some potential bankruptcies in there eventually. The growth in Q1 VFF had was actually incredible comparatively. Gentlemen, we have a better mousetrap then they do, IMO. And we are only trading at 2.5x revenue I believe. Look, it trades thin, and the Canadian cannabis sector is BS, so you can't get caught up in the daily share price. It deserves to be around $18 as I type this IMO. VFF is the long-term winner IMO. If we don't get bought out big before then.

Me? I am holding the line. Bought more, even though I am overweight. This is MY OPINION, as always.

There are lots of $18-$26 PT's out there. $30 is mine. This guy is a good follow if you want other opinions. He runs MSOS which is the ETF of US cannabis stocks. VFF is his only canadian pick and he’s been pounding the table since last year, calling for a buyout, just like us.

Also, up 10% so far today.

 

[Tdvv]

I rebought VFF @ 7.95 so I am back in the game.