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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:
Remove all the speculative investors who are gambling on the stock…they are a store that does have a P&l statement and you wouldn’t invest in it. Once the speculative investors came in due to the shorters bad positioning, it became a game of speculation vs investing. Who is going to do what next vs what is the bottom line of the stores, assets…

Sorry if you believe in speculative investing. It is a guessing game on the market NOT actual investing. If you want to invest, pick a stock that has reason to grow beyond the masses wanting/hoping it will grow.

For example, data centers are going to drive massive power demand. Utilities will profit tons BUT those building power plants, nuclear, and infrastructure are likely the biggest winners.

Then you have the ai companies using the data centers. Then you have the tech companies using AI correctly. Then you have more speculative things that could break like some of the block chain companies, risky for those that don’t know how it works or who is involved, not as risky for those that do…

Almost one year ago I posted Capital One would be a good investment and why. It is up 40-50%. The logic was simple and I believe it is still going to grow more. They still need to turn a much bigger profit but that could be any quarter as they start to turn on discovers network for more cap one transactions vs MC/Visa.

Not every investment needs to be a 10x. Just beat the 7% and you are doing great.
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What should I look at to buy and hold?
 
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Imukat said:
What should I look at to buy and hold?
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I have zero stocks in my portfolio. I’ve been on the side of a correction is needed. The AI bubble, government deficit, rising unemployment…

If you want one: I’d stay with cap one.

Others
Google- owns 7% of SpaceX, will be involved in the AI transformation

Microsoft- will be involved in the ai transformation of the economy and I believe owns a large part of openAI

You could also go defensive waiting for a correction or just go with an index.

I’ve always loved Visa and MC. I just think they are a risky investment for multiple reasons: cap one, trumps card act, and then the economy cooling normally means less consumer spending.

If you have some tech companies you are interested in, I’ll take a look.
 
90scane said:
I have zero stocks in my portfolio. I’ve been on the side of a correction is needed. The AI bubble, government deficit, rising unemployment…

If you want one: I’d stay with cap one.

Others
Google- owns 7% of SpaceX, will be involved in the AI transformation

Microsoft- will be involved in the ai transformation of the economy and I believe owns a large part of openAI

You could also go defensive waiting for a correction or just go with an index.

I’ve always loved Visa and MC. I just think they are a risky investment for multiple reasons: cap one, trumps card act, and then the economy cooling normally means less consumer spending.

If you have some tech companies you are interested in, I’ll take a look.
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What about Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor? You think they'll continue their upward trajectory?
 
Imukat said:
What about Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor? You think they'll continue their upward trajectory?
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I think they likely will but I wouldn’t assume it is a straight path. Then you have geopolitical risks of China. I’d throw one more concern: nvidia was a video/graphics card company that morphed into an AI giant. At some point soon, the chip industry will more once again. Google already has quantum chips for example.
 
90scane said:
I have zero stocks in my portfolio. I’ve been on the side of a correction is needed. The AI bubble, government deficit, rising unemployment…

If you want one: I’d stay with cap one.

Others
Google- owns 7% of SpaceX, will be involved in the AI transformation

Microsoft- will be involved in the ai transformation of the economy and I believe owns a large part of openAI

You could also go defensive waiting for a correction or just go with an index.

I’ve always loved Visa and MC. I just think they are a risky investment for multiple reasons: cap one, trumps card act, and then the economy cooling normally means less consumer spending.

If you have some tech companies you are interested in, I’ll take a look.
Click to expand...
If/when there is a correction. Do you expect it to affect day to day prices (gas/grocery etc/ housing?)

I pulled out of a few stocks when I thought a correction was coming( I’m not skilled in this 😂) and lost some. Right now I’m at record highs in the 7 years I’ve been holding/ slightly trading stocks.
 
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Canefan4life said:
If/when there is a correction. Do you expect it to affect day to day prices (gas/grocery etc/ housing?)

I pulled out of a few stocks when I thought a correction was coming( I’m not skilled in this 😂) and lost some. Right now I’m at record highs in the 7 years I’ve been holding/ slightly trading stocks.
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Main Street is very different than Wall Street. One thing I monitor is money supply. The Fed has been killing the money supply for 3 years which makes it tougher for everyone (companies and individuals) to get easier lending.

Due to the declining supply, government need for more money (bonds), ai potential for mass unemployment, bankruptcies , a worsening consumer credit outlook, and the likelihood of one time bump from tariffs(be it small or large)…I believe we see another correction. Historically, corrections happen 6-12 months after a FED pivot. I’m not sure we have seen a pivot as they are still doing QT.

The good news, when the **** hits the fan, housing prices drop, gas prices drop, etc
 
Canedog said:
If zero stocks are you in cash, bonds/bond funds? I think correction coming and have some cash and gold/silver but still have some stock I want to sell.
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I have etfs. Defense (lots of wars going on), utilities (ai are driving up profits and utilities are good during stagflation), along with gold, treasuries, cash.
 
90scane said:
Main Street is very different than Wall Street. One thing I monitor is money supply. The Fed has been killing the money supply for 3 years which makes it tougher for everyone (companies and individuals) to get easier lending.

Due to the declining supply, government need for more money (bonds), ai potential for mass unemployment, bankruptcies , a worsening consumer credit outlook, and the likelihood of one time bump from tariffs(be it small or large)…I believe we see another correction. Historically, corrections happen 6-12 months after a FED pivot. I’m not sure we have seen a pivot as they are still doing QT.

The good news, when the **** hits the fan, housing prices drop, gas prices drop, etc
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Good points. First data I posted a bit haywire (why I included the 10 year chart too), because all US businesses maxed out their revolving lines of credit in spring of '20. Commercial bank loans appear to me to have simply returned back to a 10 year trend. Loan standards tightened as the fed tightened and have gotten looser once the fed stopped raising rates.
 
just to be 100% clear to everyone. I'm not a financial advisor, and everything I post is for entertainment purposes. HA

My personal knowledge of the financial markets, stocks, bonds, and technology are mine sooo take them for what you want.
 
90scane said:
just to be 100% clear to everyone. I'm not a financial advisor, and everything I post is for entertainment purposes. HA

My personal knowledge of the financial markets, stocks, bonds, and technology are mine sooo take them for what you want.
Click to expand...
Take everything online with a grain of salt… gotta do your own homework.. I just appreciate your insight as you give me other things to research I’m not currently thinking on!
 
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