forums
Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion
- Thread starter Bird4um
- Start date
Advertisement
mr.h
I hate F$U and ND
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2013
- Messages
- 9,351
USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.926M - 1.93M 1.928M
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q2)
2.6% - 2.5% 2.5%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
2.9% - -0.5% -2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Aug)
1.9% - - -2.3%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Aug)
0.4% - 0% 1%
8:30 AM
USD Goods Trade Balance (Aug) PREL
$-85.5B 0.37 $-95.2B $-103.9B
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)
3.8% - 3.3% 3.3%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q2)
2.1% - 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims
218K - 235K 232K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
237.5K - - 240.25K
8:30 AM
USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)
0.6% - -0.1% 1.1%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q2)
2.1% - 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Wholesale Inventories (Aug) PREL
-0.2% -2.21 0.1% 0.1%
Jobless claims down
GDP up…gdp was negative lat quarter
Personal consumption expenditures up
Rate cuts will help
1.926M - 1.93M 1.928M
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q2)
2.6% - 2.5% 2.5%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
2.9% - -0.5% -2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Aug)
1.9% - - -2.3%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Aug)
0.4% - 0% 1%
8:30 AM
USD Goods Trade Balance (Aug) PREL
$-85.5B 0.37 $-95.2B $-103.9B
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)
3.8% - 3.3% 3.3%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q2)
2.1% - 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims
218K - 235K 232K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
237.5K - - 240.25K
8:30 AM
USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)
0.6% - -0.1% 1.1%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q2)
2.1% - 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Wholesale Inventories (Aug) PREL
-0.2% -2.21 0.1% 0.1%
Jobless claims down
GDP up…gdp was negative lat quarter
Personal consumption expenditures up
Rate cuts will help
Cmuri
Sophomore
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2019
- Messages
- 1,044
Guess it was a sell the news event!
TheEye
Firing won't change the mediocrity.
- Joined
- Feb 12, 2013
- Messages
- 11,613
Yes, if the Fed gets more aggressive with rate cutting.
Disagree. It is all about QE. Rate cuts aren’t nearly as important as them doing QE vs QT. The money supply is still being reduced thus less investment in longer duration bonds. This hurts government deficits and mortgage rates.
As much as I love what I see from AI, I can’t see the pay off in the near term. Maybe 3-5 years vs 3-5 quarters. Sure there will be some winners but the hype of AI integrations with the transactional world of Web 2.0 is not going to be quick or easy.
I believe we see a correction that may be a major one. Like where Bessett and Trump are taking things but it will take time. I’m also concerned with how Fd our congress is. That could lead to more wasteful spending, debts…
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2011
- Messages
- 8,079
Mkt seems fine to me. Long overdue for 5-10% correction. I think SPY definitely gonna trade back around 640-45 again this year. Decent possibility it backtests the pre-tariff panic ATH of around 613. Don't think either outcome bearish though.
If your time horizon is very short, would be cautious, if we go bid tomorrow off of PCE inflation print and squeeze to nATHs next week. I doubt that would hold up for very long and we'd sell to new lows in coming weeks.
Pretty common for corrections in late summer/early fall (though this one starting pretty late if it's indeed starting). Serious traders come back from summer in South of France and say WTF have you idiots done to the mkt over the summer? (bid it up of course!)
It's not my area of expertise, but to @90scane point SOFR got pretty jumpy above the fed funds rate just before they cut. Closed one day nearly 20bps higher. Its possible the fed run off of bonds is negatively affecting reserved and the repo market again, like in '19. The spreads between SOFR and EFFR miniscule relative to then, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Fed knows how to deal with it and intervene so can't imagine any panic if it occured would be long lasting.
If your time horizon is very short, would be cautious, if we go bid tomorrow off of PCE inflation print and squeeze to nATHs next week. I doubt that would hold up for very long and we'd sell to new lows in coming weeks.
Pretty common for corrections in late summer/early fall (though this one starting pretty late if it's indeed starting). Serious traders come back from summer in South of France and say WTF have you idiots done to the mkt over the summer? (bid it up of course!)
It's not my area of expertise, but to @90scane point SOFR got pretty jumpy above the fed funds rate just before they cut. Closed one day nearly 20bps higher. Its possible the fed run off of bonds is negatively affecting reserved and the repo market again, like in '19. The spreads between SOFR and EFFR miniscule relative to then, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Fed knows how to deal with it and intervene so can't imagine any panic if it occured would be long lasting.
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2011
- Messages
- 8,079
So I think ur concerns are spot on, and I agree there will be a massive reckoning on AI at some point (hopefully less severe than dotcom bust), but I think any correction in near term in direct AI and related names (growth Utilities like Vistra and CEG, etc) is going to be a great buying opportunity for next couple of years at least. The only solution to allay the fears that AI spend hasn't been productive to date is to spend even more on AI, IMO.
Advertisement
The debt issue is a massive one even if GDP hits 4-5% and inflation drops below 1%. This will ripple into real estate and other sectors that Will have an impact on jobs along with AI causing layoffs. This is the big shoe that drops causing a recession and potential bubble burst in equities, real estate…
I’m selling 10-16 homes to build cash reserves while building new construction at good margins to back fill. Hopefully I’m making the right decisions and have gun powder for the downturn. I’m also blessed to work for a fintech startup that could produce nice dividends for me starting next year. Exit could be 5-10 years out but another coal in the fire.
As for public stocks, I’m jaded as I believe most have been tapped for real upside. Thus, I’d rather invest in off market opportunities: real estate, startups, etc. I do have some brokerage investments but not tons
Last edited:
SIBCanes
Freshman
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2018
- Messages
- 384
3-5 years??? You already see it. It is happening in science and hospitals. Engineers are using it in tech. Waymo cars are all because of Ai. We are in 1997 of the internet or 2006 in the smart phone. But by next year we will be in 2000 in internet or 2010 in smartphone. The only thing holding it back is the build out and energy needed.
1997 ended poorly.
2006 ended poorly.
I’ve been an engineer for 30 years and tech executive for 20 years. I work for a fintech trying to implement AI across the company. It is happening fast but not 3-5q as we have been at it for 3 already.
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2014
- Messages
- 47,732
AI excels at pattern recognition. That will be where the immediate gains are found. As companies jump on the bandwagon and try to apply AI to places where it's not there will be a correction. This is what will make @90scane prediction accurate. I'd say it's a similar pattern to what led to the tech bubble of 2001.
A common quote in technology:
Humans grossly overestimate what can be done in 1 month and grossly underestimate what can be done in 10 years.
We normally see the break even of correct estimates at around 3yrs.
Waymo has been using it for a long long time and still aren’t able to claim it works properly all the time. They just keep chipping away. In 3-5 years, it very well may finally have enough data and ability to replace humans with better results everywhere not just the markets they can control environments more. Tesla is taking a much broader approach allowing use out of controlled environments. When you can take any of these cars to a third world country with success, you can then claim AI has won. If you have driven in a third world country, you’d understand how uncomfortable those driving environments are compared to the USA.
There are far more places besides cars that will allow AI to impact gdp sooner. Robotics in factories. Ai in software. Integration of data into AI agents allowing humans to use one agent for more data access. Example: MyChart is epic, what if you could query ChatGPT to get all your MyChart data so you don’t have to login to 3,4,20 providers (as you age) to see historical trends or imaging. This will happen but it isn’t quick
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2014
- Messages
- 47,732
You'd have Cosmos and Epic Research would be using that data.
Epic Cosmos
A Universe of Data that Drives Evidence-Based Research and Individualized Patient Care. Cosmos combines billions of clinical data points in a way that forms a high-quality, representative, and integrated data set that can be used to change the health and lives of people everywhere. Health system...
Advertisement
I have a friend ask me to research it. He went through a good health care exit and thinks this is a big opportunity especially if consumers allow the sharing of data. No one has a good line of sight in long term data due to laws and lack of good technology. Epic is just one of many players and the starting point. The MCP if built would need to expand into other portal providers.You'd have Cosmos and Epic Research would be using that data.
Epic Cosmos
A Universe of Data that Drives Evidence-Based Research and Individualized Patient Care. Cosmos combines billions of clinical data points in a way that forms a high-quality, representative, and integrated data set that can be used to change the health and lives of people everywhere. Health system...cosmos.epic.com
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2014
- Messages
- 47,732
I could talk for days about the difficulty making that happen. It's what keeps me employed.
Even with how great an idea it is, 3-5quarters is not happening but 3-5years is more likely.
I think we see some lower hanging higher revenue ai completed sooner. For example, ticket and retail sails via chat bots likely hit the market by 2026. There are still mtns to climb for it to happen just on fintech alone. Then you have the data integrations needed for a better experience of finding those things with correct pricing, data collection…