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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane said:

Jobs number show they are ok so 10yr went back up. If you want low rates one of a few things can get us there: recession, debt paid down by us gov, or QE which is normally only done due to recession or slow economy
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A mortgage guy I know expects them to drop a little next week. They dropped last week, then rose a tad on the Fed news. He figures they'll drop a little next week.
 
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flips said:
5th longest streak of trading days of SPY trading above its 50-day moving average (96 including today. Longest was 199 (1.12.95-10.25.95). Small sample, obviously, but all saw significantly higher prices after the pullback to the 50-day. My bias is that any pullbacks we see will be short and shallow, and that we are in the early stages of a parabolic move up similar to the second half of the 1990s.
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Yahoo finance
All three major averages clinched record closes. The small-cap index Russell 2000 (^RUT) also climbed more than 2% to notch a new all-time high close.
 
mr.h said:
Yahoo finance
All three major averages clinched record closes. The small-cap index Russell 2000 (^RUT) also climbed more than 2% to notch a new all-time high close.
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Small caps are the key I think. We've had 4 bear markets/20%+ drawdowns in SPY over a 6.5 year period ('18/'20/'22/'25), which is a pretty high frequency. Each time SPY/QQQ/DIA blasted to new highs, twice small caps (IWM) either failed to make new highs - after '18, it did just barely if you include dividends - or just barely did - in Q4 '24 by like 50ticks. The last time IWM outperformed SPY for a while was coming out of the COVID crash from April '20-March '21. That was a pretty good time to be long any equity (anything really).

I just have a really hard time believing the bear case here. They've had 4 shots in a pretty short time period and have gotten stuffed each time. It's always worth considering it when the bear market is happening I think, but once we're back to nATHs seems ludicrous to expect something like the GFC in US equity markets. All the AI adoption is going to be disinflationary, goose corporate profits, and growth-positive, IMO.
 
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GladeCane said:
What's the deal on DTREF?
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They are a mine that is similar to $MP, just way earlier in the process. They are Australian. They have found gold and REEs in the mine survey already. They recently bought the biggest mine of strontium in the US. There’s a $DTREF group on truth social that you can follow its history.

X has decent info as well. The company has been very transparent in their press releases.
I’ve been in since 6cents.
 
AAPL up YTD..approaching highs
NVDA surging on Open AI deal
DOW, S&P and NAS hit record high..Fed discussing future rate cuts
 
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USD Continuing Jobless Claims
1.926M - 1.93M 1.928M
8:30 AM
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q2)
2.6% - 2.5% 2.5%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
2.9% - -0.5% -2.8%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (Aug)
1.9% - - -2.3%
8:30 AM
USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Aug)
0.4% - 0% 1%
8:30 AM
USD Goods Trade Balance (Aug) PREL
$-85.5B 0.37 $-95.2B $-103.9B
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)
3.8% - 3.3% 3.3%
8:30 AM
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q2)
2.1% - 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims
218K - 235K 232K
8:30 AM
USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average
237.5K - - 240.25K
8:30 AM
USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)
0.6% - -0.1% 1.1%
8:30 AM
USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) (Q2)
2.1% - 2% 2%
8:30 AM
USD Wholesale Inventories (Aug) PREL
-0.2% -2.21 0.1% 0.1%

Jobless claims down
GDP up…gdp was negative lat quarter
Personal consumption expenditures up
Rate cuts will help
 
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