As many of us have been saying, IMO this game really comes down to Dawson/Beck vs Patricia and our offense versus their defense. I think we have an advantage on the other side of the ball, when our defense is on the field versus their offense, or it's at very worst a wash.
But when their defense is on the field versus our offense, IMO we have a massive challenge and whether or not we can actually move the ball and score points will dictate whether or not we win (no ****). So, where does their defense stack up? What does it excel at, and where can it be "attacked".
Spoiler alert, this isn't pretty. IMO this is the best defense in America, yes including Texas Tech, and is BY FAR the best, most talented, most physically imposing, and well coached defense we've seen all season. It's not even close.
Starting with the obvious, scoring defense, they are #1 in America. 8.8 points per game allowed. For context, the best full-season number for any school in the past 10 years is 10.4 for Michigan in 2023 (won the natty) and 10.4 also for UGA in 2021 (won the natty). This year's OSU team is 1.6 points better than both those defenses. Utterly insane. The Miami defense has been unreal this year...we give up 13.8 PPG, so they are a full 5 points better. They have given up TEN touchdowns in 12 games LOL.
So, how do they give up such a low number of points? Well, they start by giving up almost no explosive plays. In 12 games, they have surrendered a TOTAL of 84 plays that went for 10+ yards. Almost hard to comprehend. Miami gave up 124 such plays. OSU has faced 649 plays on defense this year....and 84 of them have gained 10+ yards. That's 13%. So basically, when you line up against them, for every 10 plays you run, you can expect ONE to go for 10+ yards. Almost comical. Within those 84 plays, only 56 of them have been through the air. So they are #1 in the country by a mile in 10+ yard passes allowed, 20+ yard passes allowed, and 30+ yard passes allowed. You simply cannot generate explosives on them, especially through the air. On the ground, they drop all the way to 4th in 10+ yard carries, 13th in 20+ yard carries, and 13th in 30+ yard carries. Yes, that was a joke, these numbers are still insane.
Alright, so they give up no explosives. But in the event you do get a few, can you get into the endzone. Well, they're insane there too. They've only allowed 23 redzone trips all season, which is great but it's #3 in America (Texas Tech and Indiana allowed fewer, Miami was 5th with 26). But once you get there, you can't score. They only allowed 8 TDs in the redzone all season, and that 34% TD rate is usually far and away #1 in a given year, but this year Indiana is actually even better.
So they give up no explosives. In the event you go get into the redzone, which happens less than twice a game, you can't score. But are you more likely to have success running or throwing? Well, neither, but let's look at the numbers in each specific area.
They are #4 in America in yards per carry allowed. Think, the Miami run defense, maybe a little better. That's who they are. Just a complete brick wall. They only average giving up 83.6 yards per game on the ground. But they go it more at the LOS...they are only 65th in TFLs. So they don't shoot gaps and penetrate and put you behind the sticks a lot, but what they do is completely suffocate you at the LOS and you might get 1 or 2 yards, but you're not getting 5 very often. It's kind of the opposite of A&M, who is #2 in TFLs, and even our defense, which is 18th. They are fine just standing your linemen up at the point of attack, filling gaps with their backers, and making it 2nd and 8 all day long.
In the air, this is where it gets really scary. They give up the fewest passing yards per game by a mile....133.8, the next best team is 15 yards behind. 133.8 for an entire season would be the best of the past decade by a long, long way. It's simply the best passing defense anyone has been on the field in well over 10 years. If you want a hint of optimism, they have only intercepted 7 passes all year, and they do allow 60.5% completions, which is 48th in the country. But the passes just don't go anywhere...you complete 60.5% of your throws but only for 5.5 yards per attempt. That means there is NOTHING down the field, and your pass catchers get swallowed as soon as they catch the ball.
So, what the **** does our offense do? Well, first is visit the nearest place of worship, and pray. Second is, perhaps try to attack in the short passing game. As I mentioned, you can complete some balls on them. They don't sack the QB very much (25th in the country), and you can complete 60+ percent. This is where Beck excels. We're likely not going to generate explosives down the field, literally no one has. So find a weak link (good luck) in the secondary, and see if you can get some choice routes in the middle of the field where you can complete a ball and slip a tackle. The tight ends in the seam need to have a big week. We're just not going to win much on the outside or anywhere near Downs. Also, as you'd expect, they're excellent on 3rd downs. 6th in the country. We just got embarrassed on 3rd down against the #1 3rd down defense in the country last week. Find a way to stay out of 3rd and long. If we can live in 3rd and 4 range, I think Beck can find enough time in the pocket to complete short passes for first downs. We catch the ball well, and Beck is incredibly accurate. When we do run it, we gotta get into the B and C gaps and away from McDonald. But honestly, I don't expect a ton in the run game. If we can get to 4 yards a carry, that's probably a massive win and takes some pressure off Beck.
Lastly, Dawson needs to be at his creative best in the redzone. We're probably only going to get 2-3 trips down there the whole game. When we do, we have to find a way to get 7's and not 3's. But make no mistake, this is by far the biggest challenge we've faced to date. IMO this game is a race to 20. Can we get to 20 on them without massive help? Turnovers, special teams, etc. I doubt it, but that's why we play the games. Time for Dawson and Beck to earn their paychecks. Give me 20 on offense and I think we can do this **** thing.
