Ohio Sts defense has
- Elite LB play ( against the Run - both, in Pass Rush - Reese, in coverage - Styles).
- a top 5 pick at DB in Downs
- a 1st round run-stuffing DT in McDonald
- and obviously pretty good talent everywhere else. Curry has been their best player that isn't in those 3 points above, and is the biggest down to down all around DL threat.
THE #1 Strength of this Ohio St defense is Run D imo. It centers around McDonald, their Elite LBs, and Downs who is great in run support.
But you have to ask what are their relative weaknesses and how can we exploit them? What will the likely matchups be...
The WORST 5 graded games by Ohio Sts Defense were: UCLA < Washington < Wisconsin < Indiana < Purdue. They had 3 Games graded as an 80+ in defense - Grambling St, Rutgers, and Ohio. Only 2 below a 70 - UCLA and Washington. For some perspective to give a baseline to understand the relative strength of these grades, our Defense had 7 games where we received an 80+ defensive grade. And only 1 below a 70 (Louisville).
Their Worst 5 graded games in RUN D were: Washington < UCLA < Texas < Wisconsin < Indiana ... The likely critical factor there? Running QB threats, which we don't have. So those top 3 biggest struggles against the run they had there? Unlikely to be a factor for us at all. Indiana is likely the closest team to us in the Run offense regard... They had two games with a 90 grade - Grambling and Rutgers and Michigan was an 89, 7 total games graded 80+, and only 1 game graded under a 70 (Washington). Our defense only had 1 game graded 90s run D, 4 total 80+, and 3 70 or below... So you can see how we have been a very good run Defense all year, but they've been at a far higher level. The guy we'd prefer to run at is Kenyatta Jackson and their CB Jermaine Mathews. As far as their starters Jackson has the worst missed tackle grade. And when running WR screens or outside runs it is extremely preferable to have Igbinosun and Downs on the same side then run away from both of them and make Mathews tackle in the open field. This is something throught formation you can create, and at least forces them to defend the run withe their weaker players. The other key to their Run D is they simply are a GREAT Tackling team. This is an are we have struggled a lot this year. Their Run D is a bit like a boa constrictor. They just a really good at all aspects of it. It'll be very hard to have run success against them. Im guessing we will have to run a lot of plays where we are essentially banging our head into the door between teh tackles purely to keep them honest. But I'm telling you we need to be setting up the plays where we run towards Jackson+Mathews and away from Downs. Ideally by putting Toney in jet motions to get the eyes of the Lbs too....
They have 2 games graded 80+ in pass rush - Ohio and Indiana. They have 6 TOTAL games with a 70+ pass rush grades and 7 below a 70 grade, including 2 games below a 60 grade. our Defense only had 2 games below a 70 and they were both 69 (SMU and Louisville!). Curry is their MAIN pass rush threat. In true Pass rush situations of like 3rd and longs Reese is the guy that is probably the most threatening, but he only russhes 33% of his total snaps and 43% of true pass rush snaps... If there is one "Matchup" we have the Win in it's their pass rush vs our pass protection. In true 3rd down situations i'll be a bit more worried when Reese can get active, but for the most part the biggest threat is if they do a lot of what A&M did - Stunts and Confusing overload blitzes. Beck MUST hit check downs in this game when pressured. Even turning a 2 yard gain could be the difference in winning and losing over a sack!
Coverage grade wise, They have 1 game with an 80+ coverage grade - Minnesota, then 8 TOTAL with a 70+ grade. 5 with a sub 70 Coverage grade.Those Worst 5 grades in Coverage were: Indiana (55) < UCLA (62) < Wisconsin (66) < Washington < Michigan. Our Defense had 3 gaems above 80, 7 total above a 70, and 6 below a 70. The worst pass cover grades we had was Louisville, ND, Bethune, SMU, and VTech... The guys we want to prefer to target in coverage are Jermaine Mathews, Devin Sanchez, and Reese. Reese is great in pass rush and run D. Pass Coverage not so much. He's literally their 2nd lowest graded player in coverage on their entire defense that actually plays, and the other guy is a DE who has 8 coverage snaps. Their lowest graded coverage guys with 100+ snaps are: Reese (51), Sanchez (55), Mathews (63)... To put that in perspective our Lbs coverage grade guys are Toure with an abominable 32!!!, Popo (51), Wes (64), and Chase Smith (64). Reese allows an 85% Reception%. Wes and Toure are <70%. Again this isn't saying their guys are bad at this, in general their obviously very good, but if they do have a weakness, this is where you can attack them through the air imo. Downs will obviously be on Toney. We need to attack Mathews their Safeties and Reese.
So I really can't emphasise enough that Ohio Sts MAIN strength is in Run D. Their Main "Weakness" is in Coverage + Pass Rush. This is a game we need our WRs other than Toney, and Beck to win. It's quite literally that simple. Downs is going to 100% be glued to Toney all game long. McDonald is going to give Brockermeyer **** and their LBs wont just easily get blocked by our WRs and TEs.. I think this ENTIRE game comes down to Which WRs beat the DBs - theirs or ours. And which Qb is delivering the ball at a high level (and mistake free).
