I tend to agree with the 8 win thing but I'm of the expectation that there's 2 games we're very likely to lose (FSU and Clemson) and A&M is absolutely loaded and I expect us to lose that game - I'm hesitant to pencil it in as an L because it's Jimbo and their locker room has been a disaster.
Louisville is going to be much improved. UNC has one of the 2 best QBs in the country but is winnable in a likely shoot out. NCST is formidable and reunited Armstrong and Anae to go along with a very good defense.
The other 6 games are absolutely putrid. BC is terrible but of course we'll draw the red bandana game and we've lost 3 of the last 4 against them anyway. I can't even come up with an excuse or possibility to lose to Miami OH, BCU, Temple, or Virginia.. But then there's MTSU so who knows. We typically handle Virginia at home (except for the missed FG in 2021). GT should also be in that category but for some reason we're 2-2 in the last 4.. again luckily it's at home.
Devil's advocate - we do pull Clemson and TAMU at home. Hasn't mattered against Clemson in the past but the talent gap is narrowing a little bit. Maybe it can this year.
All of the "must win" cake walk games are also at home, except for Temple (shouldn't matter) - making it much less likely that we're upset by any of those teams.
The make or break for 2023 are the road trips to Tobacco Road @ UNC and NCST imo. Probably the difference in 7-5 and 9-3 are those 2 games.