HighSeas
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Here we are, 9-10 point dogs (seriously?!?) in a long overdue ACC title game matchup. Through the ups and downs of a 10-1 season there are still many questions remaining about this team. What is the identity on offense? Can the offensive line generate movement and establish any kind of a running game? Will Diaz abandon the zone coverage calls that are consistently exploited for easy chunk gains and TDs? Will anyone step up to fill the voids vacated by the Hernon and Richards injuries?
And the elephant in the room, the biggest question of them all – how will Rosier respond after one of the worst performances I’ve seen from a college QB?
We can debate these questions ad nauseam but I’m more concerned with looking ahead to the opponent: Clemson. To prepare for this matchup I scouted their recent competitive games against NC State and FSU. I planned on watching more games but I got a clear enough picture of their (extremely predictable) offense after 1 game, and I wasn’t studying their defense as closely because I don’t have access to All-22 coaches’ film.
Before I dive into my analysis I will note that contrary to what the general public, betting public, national media and Clemson fans believe these teams are very closely matched on paper. Football Outsiders’ ranking metrics rate Miami as the better offense and Clemson as the better D/ST unit, although it’s worth noting that their kicker is a major liability. Factor in turnover differential and this is a tough game to
project on the surface with statistics.
Clemson Offense
Clemson runs an offset-pistol spread option attack with tempo. Their playbook is deep and they incorporate window dressing into many of their core plays. Film study, eye discipline and mental focus will richly reward any defense against this offense. After studying the NC State game I was able to predict most of their plays before the snap when I broke down the FSU game. Field position, personnel, down & distance and formation/alignment/pre-snap motion in particular are strong giveaways for what’s coming. It helps that you can completely ignore the jet motion they love to integrate into their scheme. Through 2 games I saw jet motion 25+ times and the motion guy never sniffed the ball.
Personnel
Kelly Bryant is a solid dual-threat college QB.
RBs are a mixed bag
WRs are competent
OL also a mixed bag
Scheme
Clemson’s offensive philosophy is to sustain long drives wearing down a defense with tempo and misdirection. They call plays to get themselves in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and manageable and throw to the sticks for easy conversions. They are a highly rated 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down offense for that reason. Eventually they get inside the 10 where they try to break a defense down with QB runs, taking every sliver of an advantage they can get.
The best way to present their scheme is to list their preferred plays based on the available information:
Red Zone:
Inside the 10 Bryant is invariably running the ball. The QB counter Power play with jet motion is their bread and butter preferred play. They also do zone read, inverted veer and QB power to the TE (strong) side. They want a numbers advantage utilizing tempo with split flow/misdirection. Outside of the 10 they might try the following:
The Miami defense is capable of shutting down this offense similar to what we saw against Virginia Tech. Penetration from the DL, particularly McIntosh, would disrupt Clemson’s run game and put their offense behind schedule where they really struggle. The LBs have to keep their gap integrity and play disciplined with their eyes to clean up what’s left. Clemson’s OL doesn’t get to the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] level often therefore a focused, engaged LB group that trusts what they see can attack downhill to great success. None of their WRs are dynamic after the catch so tackling won’t be an issue for the Miami DBs. Clemson doesn’t break many tackles in general from what I’ve seen.
For coverage it’s imperative that Miami play its corners in press alignment. Clemson wants to throw quick hitters and will continue doing it until a defense adjusts. I give the advantage to Miami’s corners in man coverage. The matchup to follow is Renfrow vs. Bandy (as Pete identified on the podcast) as they are mirror images in terms of skill set and strengths. It may be tempting to bait Bryant into INTs with zone pressure, especially trap coverage in the flat, but odds are he’ll either find an easy completion throwing into the pressure or just eat a sack.
My biggest concern on this side of the ball is if Clemson gets good field position and gets the ball inside the 10 their QB counter is tough to stop. Clemson is a unique challenge in the red zone even for Miami’s elite red zone defense. Otherwise I expect Miami to keep Clemson from sustaining drives and turn the game into a field position battle that the offense can win with superior 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half adjustments.
Miami Offense vs. Clemson Defense
I don’t have as good of a feel for this side of the ball, for a number of reasons. Miami’s offense has been fairly unpredictable this year and I foolishly thought they wouldn’t be able to score against VT so take that fwiw. There are a number of options available to assume the snaps that would have gone to Hernon and Richards so that adds another layer of unpredictability. On top of that Clemson’s defense is a feast-or-famine unit. Their front 4 dominated a weak FSU OL but was largely invisible against NC State giving up 3+ YPC consistently, and Syracuse obviously moved the ball with great success as well. They have such a variety of pressure looks that you rarely see the same blitz twice, and I honestly have no idea how Miami will respond to that. Without All-22 I can’t get a full grasp of their scheme anyway.
Personnel
Regarding personnel, we know they are productive up front. Ferrell #99 is getting a lot of draft buzz but he doesn’t concern me in this matchup. He’s not a dynamic pass rusher. Most of his sacks are clean-up/coverage sacks where he uses his length to disengage. Think of him as similar to Joe Jackson with more agility in space. Wilkins #42 was MIA against NC State but he has good body control and can win the leverage battle as DMoney has noted. Lawrence #90 is a mammoth and athletic for his size but he’s been playing through pain all year and hasn’t been productive. Norton has been a much better player all year, for comparison. Bryant #7 is a highly-active effort player who likes to get his hands in passing lanes. Clemson often uses him on slants and twists and sends edge blitzes to his side. St. Louis has had a good year but needs a bounce back game after last week otherwise Rosier is in trouble. I’m not sure how many snaps he will get but Huggins #6 7 is a backup DT who has upfield penetration ability. In general the Clemson DL wears down late in drives as their size and lack of a rotation works against them. They don’t like pursuing down the line of scrimmage so horizontal offense could give them fits and pay off as the game progresses.
Their LB group actually impressed me more than the DL in the games I saw. Lamar #57 has sideline-to-sideline speed and is a powerful striker. O’Daniel #6 is their jack of all trades like 23 on ND. He frequently lines up over the slot where he can blitz, drop into zone coverage or man up on a WR. He’s experienced and athletic but no match for any of Miami’s WRs, so that’s a matchup to target if it appears. In general their LBs stay in their gaps and prevent chunk gains in the run game. NC State was consistently gaining yards on the ground but couldn’t break any long runs.
Their DB group is solid especially in conjunction with the front 6/7. Their safeties are disciplined about maintaining depth and rarely give up any deep balls, which is mandatory for them because of their blitz frequency. They are schooled to keep the ball in front of them and will give up cushions on the perimeter or voids in the shallow middle of field if they have to. The FS duo of #23 and #1 2 anchor the group although 12 might not play much as he’s the backup apparently. Muse #1 9 is a big stiff box safety who’s very exploitable in man coverage. Mullen #1 is one of the best corners I’ve seen this year but his counterpart Smith #31 is overmatched physically and athletically.
Analysis
Miami’s gameplan should be to avoid 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and long at all costs. Clemson mostly runs Quarters coverage on early downs. They don’t reroute and their safeties drop deep and react late so slants and digs should be effective. I would try to take advantage of the width of the field early on with jet motion, screens (RPO to field side with their corners far off), Empty formation quick game, swing or Texas routes to Homer, etc. Anything that slows down their DL and gets them guessing and moving laterally will pay off in the long run. Once the offense is in rhythm and the Clemson D is off-balance I’d incorporate the running game with Inside Zone, Power and Wildcat. If Miami can generate 3-6 yards a rush like NC State did then that creates balance, wears down their front and opens up the play action game. Their corners are susceptible to double moves and FSU hit them with a trick play for a wide open TD. On 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and long they send confusing blitzes every time. On 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and short they play press-man straight up so Berrios is obviously the guy to target, and Richt has done a better job in recent weeks of designing pass concepts that help create separation.
Miami can’t afford to do straight dropbacks every down like we saw against Pitt. The offense is not prepared or equipped to handle the full onslaught of Venables blitz packages because they lack the formations and personnel to max protect effectively. On 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and long I’d look to either get the ball out quickly with a smoke route or slant, or run a fast-developing pass concept (like Spot/Snag) that has a checkdown option. I know fans will be hoping to hit deep balls against their blitzes but the reality is their safety(s) keep their depth, the pressure will arrive quickly and Rosier consistently failed to hit open deep throws against Pitt’s single-high coverage. Miami’s offense – players and playcalls - is at its best when it gets a rhythm going, not when it relies on sporadic deep shots sandwiched between 3-and-outs.
Last thing to mention: McCloud is an extremely dynamic punt returner capable of shifting the balance in any game. Feagles’ crappy punting may come in handy this week if it means McCloud doesn’t get a clean catch.
Prediction
Gotta put my faith in the defense to step up once again, and I think the offense can avoid the early faceplant and pull away some in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half. I like the intangible factors because this team thrives on overcoming adversity as the underdog.
20-14 Canes
And the elephant in the room, the biggest question of them all – how will Rosier respond after one of the worst performances I’ve seen from a college QB?
We can debate these questions ad nauseam but I’m more concerned with looking ahead to the opponent: Clemson. To prepare for this matchup I scouted their recent competitive games against NC State and FSU. I planned on watching more games but I got a clear enough picture of their (extremely predictable) offense after 1 game, and I wasn’t studying their defense as closely because I don’t have access to All-22 coaches’ film.
Before I dive into my analysis I will note that contrary to what the general public, betting public, national media and Clemson fans believe these teams are very closely matched on paper. Football Outsiders’ ranking metrics rate Miami as the better offense and Clemson as the better D/ST unit, although it’s worth noting that their kicker is a major liability. Factor in turnover differential and this is a tough game to
project on the surface with statistics.
Clemson Offense
Clemson runs an offset-pistol spread option attack with tempo. Their playbook is deep and they incorporate window dressing into many of their core plays. Film study, eye discipline and mental focus will richly reward any defense against this offense. After studying the NC State game I was able to predict most of their plays before the snap when I broke down the FSU game. Field position, personnel, down & distance and formation/alignment/pre-snap motion in particular are strong giveaways for what’s coming. It helps that you can completely ignore the jet motion they love to integrate into their scheme. Through 2 games I saw jet motion 25+ times and the motion guy never sniffed the ball.
Personnel
Kelly Bryant is a solid dual-threat college QB.
- Big, strong, fast, agile. He can escape pressure and deliver a blow (as Hoskins on FSU found out)
- Good ball security as a runner and passer. Lost fumbles when defenders attacked the mesh point on option runs
- 1-read passer. Stares down initial target and lingers if he’s not open
- Excellent accuracy inside of 12 yards when his feet are set and he’s in rhythm, although ball placement wavers on sideline throws
- Can throw completions on half-roll bootlegs
- Throws a terrible deep ball. His footwork and foundation break down when it’s not a 1-step or 3-step timing throw
- Looks to the sideline for checks and audibles. Won’t react to late pressure looks
- Very composed, mentally and physically tough. He does almost all the short-yardage work and even runs 3 straight times at the goal line. Very durable and undeterred by contact, he will put Diaz’s theory about hitting QBs and breaking them down (ex. Dungey) to the test
RBs are a mixed bag
- Etienne is explosive and fast but small with average contact balance. I expect he would struggle in pass protection
- The others are JAGs. They will take the yards that are blocked
WRs are competent
- Reliable hands and route running
- Not a group that generates much separation down the field, but their offense is geared toward short passing, sustained tempo drives anyway
- Renfrow is the headliner. Small and average athletically but he’s shifty and precise running the slot option and whip/pivot routes
- 14 is the only one with size. He’s a red zone option similar to Langham
OL also a mixed bag
- Running game depends on tempo, confusion from split flow and window dressing, and numbers advantages. Not an OL group that asserts its will moving bodies but they get the job done
- Both guards can pull effectively
- Communication is the main difference between this group and the superior ND OL. Clemson has issues picking up blitzes
- They protect well against a 4-man rush. Metrics indicate they are good at preventing sacks on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down but below-average on early downs.
- 76 the RT is a weak link as his vertical pass set is slow and sloppy at times
Scheme
Clemson’s offensive philosophy is to sustain long drives wearing down a defense with tempo and misdirection. They call plays to get themselves in 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and manageable and throw to the sticks for easy conversions. They are a highly rated 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] down offense for that reason. Eventually they get inside the 10 where they try to break a defense down with QB runs, taking every sliver of an advantage they can get.
The best way to present their scheme is to list their preferred plays based on the available information:
- Standard downs 2x2 with H-back/Y – Inside zone or zone read to H-back side. Sometimes they pull the G and run power. They also run speed option.
- Standard downs 2x2 with inline TE opposite RB – Power.
- Standard downs 2x2 with inline TE on RB side – Zone read or zone read play action
- 1[SUP]st[/SUP] and 10 near the 50 – Play action shot play, QB draw play action
- 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and 5+ 2x2 – Stop/curl routes to the sticks with outside fade by boundary WR (usually left). Slot option or pivot route by Renfrow. Occasional half roll right or backside slant
- 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and short between the 20s – Zone read. They ran Mesh concept once but Bryant has slow eyes and doesn’t come off his primary read so I doubt they try it again
- Jet motion – Split flow QB counter or inverted veer
- Empty – QB draw or designed scramble
- 2x2 stack – Switch release variant: dig/post/wheel combo, or bubble screen
- Motion to field side trips – HB swing or QB draw
- Standard trips right – Half roll rub route to sideline, bubble screen or fake bubble screen (QB draw or inside shovel)
- Hurry-up-no-huddle – Curls to the sticks, over and over and over again, with the outside fade alert of course
Red Zone:
Inside the 10 Bryant is invariably running the ball. The QB counter Power play with jet motion is their bread and butter preferred play. They also do zone read, inverted veer and QB power to the TE (strong) side. They want a numbers advantage utilizing tempo with split flow/misdirection. Outside of the 10 they might try the following:
- #14 slant or fade
- Cain isolated to 1WR side with narrow split on the hash – fade
- Beware 2x2 speed option and speed option play action
The Miami defense is capable of shutting down this offense similar to what we saw against Virginia Tech. Penetration from the DL, particularly McIntosh, would disrupt Clemson’s run game and put their offense behind schedule where they really struggle. The LBs have to keep their gap integrity and play disciplined with their eyes to clean up what’s left. Clemson’s OL doesn’t get to the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] level often therefore a focused, engaged LB group that trusts what they see can attack downhill to great success. None of their WRs are dynamic after the catch so tackling won’t be an issue for the Miami DBs. Clemson doesn’t break many tackles in general from what I’ve seen.
For coverage it’s imperative that Miami play its corners in press alignment. Clemson wants to throw quick hitters and will continue doing it until a defense adjusts. I give the advantage to Miami’s corners in man coverage. The matchup to follow is Renfrow vs. Bandy (as Pete identified on the podcast) as they are mirror images in terms of skill set and strengths. It may be tempting to bait Bryant into INTs with zone pressure, especially trap coverage in the flat, but odds are he’ll either find an easy completion throwing into the pressure or just eat a sack.
My biggest concern on this side of the ball is if Clemson gets good field position and gets the ball inside the 10 their QB counter is tough to stop. Clemson is a unique challenge in the red zone even for Miami’s elite red zone defense. Otherwise I expect Miami to keep Clemson from sustaining drives and turn the game into a field position battle that the offense can win with superior 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half adjustments.
Miami Offense vs. Clemson Defense
I don’t have as good of a feel for this side of the ball, for a number of reasons. Miami’s offense has been fairly unpredictable this year and I foolishly thought they wouldn’t be able to score against VT so take that fwiw. There are a number of options available to assume the snaps that would have gone to Hernon and Richards so that adds another layer of unpredictability. On top of that Clemson’s defense is a feast-or-famine unit. Their front 4 dominated a weak FSU OL but was largely invisible against NC State giving up 3+ YPC consistently, and Syracuse obviously moved the ball with great success as well. They have such a variety of pressure looks that you rarely see the same blitz twice, and I honestly have no idea how Miami will respond to that. Without All-22 I can’t get a full grasp of their scheme anyway.
Personnel
Regarding personnel, we know they are productive up front. Ferrell #99 is getting a lot of draft buzz but he doesn’t concern me in this matchup. He’s not a dynamic pass rusher. Most of his sacks are clean-up/coverage sacks where he uses his length to disengage. Think of him as similar to Joe Jackson with more agility in space. Wilkins #42 was MIA against NC State but he has good body control and can win the leverage battle as DMoney has noted. Lawrence #90 is a mammoth and athletic for his size but he’s been playing through pain all year and hasn’t been productive. Norton has been a much better player all year, for comparison. Bryant #7 is a highly-active effort player who likes to get his hands in passing lanes. Clemson often uses him on slants and twists and sends edge blitzes to his side. St. Louis has had a good year but needs a bounce back game after last week otherwise Rosier is in trouble. I’m not sure how many snaps he will get but Huggins #6 7 is a backup DT who has upfield penetration ability. In general the Clemson DL wears down late in drives as their size and lack of a rotation works against them. They don’t like pursuing down the line of scrimmage so horizontal offense could give them fits and pay off as the game progresses.
Their LB group actually impressed me more than the DL in the games I saw. Lamar #57 has sideline-to-sideline speed and is a powerful striker. O’Daniel #6 is their jack of all trades like 23 on ND. He frequently lines up over the slot where he can blitz, drop into zone coverage or man up on a WR. He’s experienced and athletic but no match for any of Miami’s WRs, so that’s a matchup to target if it appears. In general their LBs stay in their gaps and prevent chunk gains in the run game. NC State was consistently gaining yards on the ground but couldn’t break any long runs.
Their DB group is solid especially in conjunction with the front 6/7. Their safeties are disciplined about maintaining depth and rarely give up any deep balls, which is mandatory for them because of their blitz frequency. They are schooled to keep the ball in front of them and will give up cushions on the perimeter or voids in the shallow middle of field if they have to. The FS duo of #23 and #1 2 anchor the group although 12 might not play much as he’s the backup apparently. Muse #1 9 is a big stiff box safety who’s very exploitable in man coverage. Mullen #1 is one of the best corners I’ve seen this year but his counterpart Smith #31 is overmatched physically and athletically.
Analysis
Miami’s gameplan should be to avoid 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and long at all costs. Clemson mostly runs Quarters coverage on early downs. They don’t reroute and their safeties drop deep and react late so slants and digs should be effective. I would try to take advantage of the width of the field early on with jet motion, screens (RPO to field side with their corners far off), Empty formation quick game, swing or Texas routes to Homer, etc. Anything that slows down their DL and gets them guessing and moving laterally will pay off in the long run. Once the offense is in rhythm and the Clemson D is off-balance I’d incorporate the running game with Inside Zone, Power and Wildcat. If Miami can generate 3-6 yards a rush like NC State did then that creates balance, wears down their front and opens up the play action game. Their corners are susceptible to double moves and FSU hit them with a trick play for a wide open TD. On 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and long they send confusing blitzes every time. On 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and short they play press-man straight up so Berrios is obviously the guy to target, and Richt has done a better job in recent weeks of designing pass concepts that help create separation.
Miami can’t afford to do straight dropbacks every down like we saw against Pitt. The offense is not prepared or equipped to handle the full onslaught of Venables blitz packages because they lack the formations and personnel to max protect effectively. On 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and long I’d look to either get the ball out quickly with a smoke route or slant, or run a fast-developing pass concept (like Spot/Snag) that has a checkdown option. I know fans will be hoping to hit deep balls against their blitzes but the reality is their safety(s) keep their depth, the pressure will arrive quickly and Rosier consistently failed to hit open deep throws against Pitt’s single-high coverage. Miami’s offense – players and playcalls - is at its best when it gets a rhythm going, not when it relies on sporadic deep shots sandwiched between 3-and-outs.
Last thing to mention: McCloud is an extremely dynamic punt returner capable of shifting the balance in any game. Feagles’ crappy punting may come in handy this week if it means McCloud doesn’t get a clean catch.
Prediction
Gotta put my faith in the defense to step up once again, and I think the offense can avoid the early faceplant and pull away some in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half. I like the intangible factors because this team thrives on overcoming adversity as the underdog.
20-14 Canes
