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RB's Don't Matter?

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bshaw28

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I'm very firmly on the "yes, RB's do matter" side of the argument. But I didn't see what happened in the 2020 NFL draft coming

10 RB's were drafted in the First 3 Rounds

- 2008 was the last time 10 RB's were taken in the first 3 rounds. 11 RB's taken in 2008, and it was an epic draft for RB's
- 2001 was the only other year since 2000 that 10 RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds
- 2009 - 2019 - 8 was the most RB's taken in the first 3 Rounds

As the game shifts more towards Analytics, which I agree with, this was a total departure from what the data says.

I do think a lot of RB's were drafted too high - CEH, AJ Dillon, Antonio Gibson, Keywhawn Vaughn, Darrynton Evans. But it was crazy to see so many RB's taken so early.
 
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I really like AJ Dillon but was shocked when he went in the 2nd, granted it was towards the end of the round and teams started making a run on RB's. Most mocks I saw had him as a 5th round pick.
 
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Running in the NFL is still important, so RBs matter.
They are worth drafting late in round 1 (at the earliest) and afterwards.
But they are not worth a big second contract or free agent splash.
Draft them. Use them. Then let someone else pay them.
 
My argument has never been RBs don't matter. I just don't see the point in using a high pick on RB when you have other needs. Look at Jacksonville for example. A few years ago they took Fournette at No 4. Good player yes but everyone knew Bortles was trash. Guess what QBs were taken after pick No 4? Mahomes and Watson. Tell me they wouldn't be better off with one of those two and then grabbing another RB later. Other backs in that draft class not selected first round. Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt.
 
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The issue with the jags is fournnette has been a bust
He was supposed to be a zeke level prospect, come in run for 1500 plus to allow easy play action for bortles

But I’m General I agree with you about drafting rbs high



moshated305 said:
My argument has never been RBs don't matter. I just don't see the point in using a high pick on RB when you have other needs. Look at Jacksonville for example. A few years ago they took Fournette at No 4. Good player yes but everyone knew Bortles was trash. Guess what QBs were taken after pick No 4? Mahomes and Watson. Tell me they wouldn't be better off with one of those two and then grabbing another RB later. Other backs in that draft class not selected first round. Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt.
Click to expand...
 
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Gibson will be playing WR for the Redskins but he was a RB at Memphis.

RB's will always matter, but the way in which they're used has changed.

10-20 years ago backs like Jonathan Taylor, AJ Dillon, JK Dobbins, D'Andre Swift etc would've all been 1st round picks & probably drafted in the top 15-20.

CEH is not a 1st round back, but in Andy Reid & Bieniemy's offense he'll be a receiving back more than a 25-30 carries a game pound the rock style RB.

RB's being used in the passing game has shifted their value. I don't think anybody would ever rationally argue they don't matter, but unless you have a sure-fire HOF'er or a highly dynamic versatile back that is equally as dangerous as a receiver, drafting one in the top 10 seems less likely.

At one point in time RB's used to be one of the most important positions in the league, now it's QB, DE/EDGE, CB & LT in order of importance. RB's are still important, just not as much as they used to be in the 90's - mid 00's NFL.
 
Guys like Matt brieda, Gus edwards, phillip Lindsey are prime examples why in most cases rbs shouldn’t be drafted high no matter what. You can get high level production anywhere drafted or not nowadays. All 3 guys undrafted despite averaging 4.9 or more yards per carry in their first few seasons with over 1400 rushing yards total

3 seasons Matt brieda 381 attempts 5.0 ypc 1900 yards

2 seasons Gus edwards 270 attempts 5.3 ypc 1429 rushing yards

2 seasons Phillip Lindsay 416 attempts 4.9 ypc 2048 rushing yards


side note, we should slap the **** out of coach richt and Golden for not playing Gus edwards enough at Miami. I wish He didn’t get hurt in 2015.... hes producting at an elite level through his first 2 years in the league and running efficiently
 
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A rebuttal to this years data meaning much.

There were only 16 total RBs drafted. 25 were drafted just last year. 21 the year before. 30 three years ago.

This was a weird year for all of the issues that rose up during the process but also for the position. Not top heavy by any means, but a lof of backs in that draft range. Once the run on RBs started, teams just took guys they liked to make sure they got one and then no one else really bothered.

WR had 17 drafted by the end of the third round. Most since 2007 (Calvin Johnson year - only tied btw) and there were 37 total drafted...T-Most in the common draft era.
 
BoxingRobes said:
A rebuttal to this years data meaning much.

There were only 16 total RBs drafted. 25 were drafted just last year. 21 the year before. 30 three years ago.

This was a weird year for all of the issues that rose up during the process but also for the position. Not top heavy by any means, but a lof of backs in that draft range. Once the run on RBs started, teams just took guys they liked to make sure they got one and then no one else really bothered.

WR had 17 drafted by the end of the third round. Most since 2007 (Calvin Johnson year - only tied btw) and there were 37 total drafted...T-Most in the common draft era.
Click to expand...

But in terms of "value" it looks different. The first 3 rounds are much more valuable. For instance, the "trade value" of the position where 2020 RB's were taken was about 3,600 whereas in 2019 they were about 2,400. 8 RB's taken in rounds 5-6 don't match the value of 2 taken in the 3rd Round.

Usually it's a 2 to 1 ratio in RB's drafted Rounds 4-7 to RB's drafted Rounds 1-3. This year it flipped. It was weird that RB's teams would usually let slide to the 4th & 5th were scooped up in the 2nd & 3rd

So many WR's made sense - this was widely being talked about as maybe the best WR class ever. While this RB was talked about as very good, no one was saying best ever. I don't even think it would be considered s better up top than 2015, 2017, or 2018.

I think it's skewed by the NFL copy cat thinking "We have to keep up with KC. We need offense". But it's interesting this thinking way outtrumped the "RB's don't matter" analytic trend.

On top of that - there was some really weird & unprecedented things that happened:

CEH - He's under 210 and runs a 4.6. and went in the 1st. that's unheard of. I don't think that's happened ever. Maybe if you go back to the 1970's.
Gibson - Has 33 career carries. Has 307 career snaps. Was the 2nd pick of the 3rd Round
Talent Wise - I don't think these first 3 rounds has even a remote chance to match 2008 when these RB's were taken first 3 rounds - Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Steve Slaton, Felix Jones, Kevin Smith
 
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Copy cat league...

Cowboys started the RB love fest again and got the dudes after him drafted in the 1st like Fournette

but now everyone wants to find the new middle round RB studs but are over drafting them
 
bshaw28 said:
I'm very firmly on the "yes, RB's do matter" side of the argument. But I didn't see what happened in the 2020 NFL draft coming

10 RB's were drafted in the First 3 Rounds

- 2008 was the last time 10 RB's were taken in the first 3 rounds. 11 RB's taken in 2008, and it was an epic draft for RB's
- 2001 was the only other year since 2000 that 10 RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds
- 2009 - 2019 - 8 was the most RB's taken in the first 3 Rounds

As the game shifts more towards Analytics, which I agree with, this was a total departure from what the data says.

I do think a lot of RB's were drafted too high - CEH, AJ Dillon, Antonio Gibson, Keywhawn Vaughn, Darrynton Evans. But it was crazy to see so many RB's taken so early.
Click to expand...

9 of the top 10 paid NFL RBs didn't even make it to the playoffs last season. They are a dime a dozen. Still overvalued at the draft IMO. I wouldn't even bother looking at a RB for several rounds.
 
Football is a game of trends. If you're not creating or at least at the forefront of one, you're far less likely to be successful.
 
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