This is all very hypothetical, because you'd never have these guys available on the backend of R1 to be a test case. My only counter to it is that you don't see playoff teams or teams on the brink making a play for these top RBs either. But in theory, sure, if they were there at pick 32, it'd be a different story...but they would also not be drafted to be a 1000 snap count back either.
Zeke is a unique case and as I've said in other threads, probably the only back I would have considered that high...he's a legit Hall of Fame back and I thought so before he was drafted. On the same token, are the Cowboys better or worse today than they would have been if they drafted Jalen Ramsey or DeForest Buckner in R1 (in 2017, they took DE and CB with their first two picks) and then selected Derrick Henry in R2 while still getting Dak later on? I mean, this is what we're talking about here, ultimately. Pick premium positions in R1, get your RB later on. Zeke is also unique in that he plays a high volume of snaps...more than any RB in football.
But lets take Saquon Barkley...his snap count is on par with say...Sterling Shepard and they took him over Lamar Jackson. A mistake many teams made, but we can't act like there weren't many people pounding the table for Lamar either and they took a QB in the very next year. In a fantasy world where Saquon Barkley is drafted by a team with a QB, offensive line, edge rushers, etc...sure...I could be sold.
Also, lets take McCaffrey...they took McCaffrey over Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson after Cam Newton threw 52% the year before. Same scenario as Barkley. Its just not for me and I think teams are wasting draft capital using them on a draft pick so high. If you want a RB...cool...could have had Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon in R2 or Alvin Kamara in R2 if you wanted to pay up. The same with the Jaguars and Fournette. Could have drafted your QB and a RB in R2 and those teams are now in the playoffs instead of once again drafting in the Top 10.
IMO in nearly all of these cases of a RB being drafted high, its a big mistake by the franchise to do so. In a hypothetical scenario where these types of players are available very late in the draft...ok...but again, my counter is that you don't see these playoff teams moving up to get them.
As for examples where these playoff teams select a RB late in R1, it almost never works.
As for CEH...you're probably right, it won't end well. I think its intriguing ONLY because its the Chiefs...but, reflecting it reminds me of the Giants taking David Wilson after winning a Super Bowl, the Rams taking Trung Candidate after winning the Super Bowl...but this is also a different era of football and I just see CEH as an "offensive weapon" to a team that was just at a Super Bowl that legitimately has all of the foundational pieces locked up. It probably wasn't the best pick they could make, but I understand the philosophy and if you're the Chiefs, its worth a gamble, but I acknowledge it probably doesn't end well, these type of picks rarely do and we could be discussing in one year's time how they should have drafted X. The Chiefs draft was very swinging for the fences, tbh. Could be a lot of nothing sooner rather than later.
Seahawks drafting Rashaad Penny and Patriots drafting Sony Michel late seem silly in hindsight. Mark Ingram to the Saints seems like a nice example of a successful RB taken at 28, but then when you realize they gave up a first round pick next year for him, I'm not sure anyone can defend that when the Patriots used that pick to select Chandler Jones.
If you're saying "it's a hard and fast rule that no RB should be taken in the 1st Round" - then there's no need to debate how high in the 1st a RB is taken, right? Doesn't where a RB is drafted in the 1st become an irrelevant discussion if your statement is they should never be drafted anywhere in the 1st?
If in the highly unlikely scenario a Zeke/Barkley/McCaffery slipped to 32, and that team had a need for RB, it still wouldn't matter, right? That team should pass, because there's absolutely no scenario that justify's a RB in the 1st. Correct?
Taking a RB a RB in the 1st at all is one debate. How high you should take a RB in the 1st is a totally separate debate.
And CEH is stupid not because he's a RB, but because how small & slow for a RB he is. Like, if you wanted a pass catcher - take Swift. CEH athelticism almost never works out. It's such a very very long shot.
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