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NFL QB Trey Lance

AUcane

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Justin Fields is being underrated. The big scouting misses of the past few years were Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. None of those guys were top 5 picks and they all shared a knock: decision-making. This is a repeat.

I'll bet on the talent. Fields is big, accurate, powerful, athletic and tough. All he's done is win and put up numbers. Has he had superior talent around him? Sure. So have the other four guys. People are sleeping on his pure physicality and passing ability.

With that said, this is a big-time QB class. I like all of these guys and they can all flourish in the right system. Four legit Top 5 talents and a first rounder in Mac. The situation is going to make a big difference in which of them rises to the top.

Agree on Fields but one thing I read today was that background checks are revealing he is not a QB nerd type. Nagy from the SB referred to the fact that Fields is known as a last guy in, first guy to leave kind of guy. That's a bit of a red flag, no? Otherwise, I love his potential. I think Shanahan can turn him into a great pro much in the way he did with RG3.

As for Lance, buyer beware with him. NO QB in modern history (that I know of) has succeeded in the pros after only one year starting in college AND leaving early. Look at all the NFL starters the past several years and you'll find that none of them fit this criteria. Look at the last QB to fit this criteria - Haskins.
 

DMoney

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Agree on Fields but one thing I read today was that background checks are revealing he is not a QB nerd type. Nagy from the SB referred to the fact that Fields is known as a last guy in, first guy to leave kind of guy. That's a bit of a red flag, no? Otherwise, I love his potential. I think Shanahan can turn him into a great pro much in the way he did with RG3.

As for Lance, buyer beware with him. NO QB in modern history (that I know of) has succeeded in the pros after only one year starting in college AND leaving early. Look at all the NFL starters the past several years and you'll find that none of them fit this criteria. Look at the last QB to fit this criteria - Haskins.
If he has legit work ethic concerns, it’s an issue and would make me think twice about him. But based on what he showed on the field, he is a physical specimen with toughness and accuracy.
 

GladeCane

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Agree on Fields but one thing I read today was that background checks are revealing he is not a QB nerd type. Nagy from the SB referred to the fact that Fields is known as a last guy in, first guy to leave kind of guy. That's a bit of a red flag, no? Otherwise, I love his potential. I think Shanahan can turn him into a great pro much in the way he did with RG3.

As for Lance, buyer beware with him. NO QB in modern history (that I know of) has succeeded in the pros after only one year starting in college AND leaving early. Look at all the NFL starters the past several years and you'll find that none of them fit this criteria. Look at the last QB to fit this criteria - Haskins.
I didn't know that about Fields. You can get away with just being a great athletic QB in college especially at OSU, but the Pros you need way more.

Interesting take on Lance. I had Mac Jones ahead of both and this just might be SF pick also.
 

Hogan

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There are people who say that Fields doesnt have the greatest work ethic. Others say his work ethic is tremendous.

Right now, a lot of smokescreens are thrown. Remember when analysts said that sources told them that Zach Wilson wasnt liked at BYU and they didnt vote him as a team captain? Wilsons teammates eventually came out and squashed this as entirely false.

One QB will drop out of the top 10, thats for sure. Lawrence will go to the Jaguars, the Jets drafting Zach Wilson is apparently the worst kept secret. Everything after that is already becoming a gamble, depending on what the 49ers want. New England looks to be poised in trading up a lot of spots, Carolina is looking for their QB and Denver might also be in the race.
 

cookies

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I don’t know if that’s for sure. I’m betting on 5 going in the first 10, especially if Mac Jones goes at 3
 

AUcane

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I didn't know that about Fields. You can get away with just being a great athletic QB in college especially at OSU, but the Pros you need way more.

Interesting take on Lance. I had Mac Jones ahead of both and this just might be SF pick also.

It’s the same reason I would stay away from Mac - QBs with that criteria have not fared well in the pros.
Fields is tougher to assess bc he started for basically 1.5 seasons. But of the 3, I’d take fields for that reason.
 

HighSeas

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Agree on Fields but one thing I read today was that background checks are revealing he is not a QB nerd type. Nagy from the SB referred to the fact that Fields is known as a last guy in, first guy to leave kind of guy. That's a bit of a red flag, no? Otherwise, I love his potential. I think Shanahan can turn him into a great pro much in the way he did with RG3.

As for Lance, buyer beware with him. NO QB in modern history (that I know of) has succeeded in the pros after only one year starting in college AND leaving early. Look at all the NFL starters the past several years and you'll find that none of them fit this criteria. Look at the last QB to fit this criteria - Haskins.
Every player is a 1of1. This trend-based analysis is descriptive not predictive.

Trey Lance is a phenomenal prospect. There is no comparison between him and Haskins from a traits or intangibles perspective. And the same is true for Justin Fields who's getting dragged down because he went to the same school as a few lousy QBs. At least that argument has the potential for contextual merit if Fields was being propped up by a gimmicky offense but it's the opposite. Haskins threw a ton of shallow crosses to great athletes while Fields was dropping routine dimes 40+ yards down the field against top teams, hanging in the pocket as deep option routes developed.

My concern with Fields is there's a slowness to his game from his drops to his release to overhitching to slow reactions to pressure. He needs to play with more urgency at the next level or he will have the same issues Jameis Winston had. But he's much more athletic and throws a more accurate deep ball vs Jameis' first 4 years in the league so a worst-case scenario for Fields is still a quality starter.
 

AUcane

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Every player is a 1of1. This trend-based analysis is descriptive not predictive.

Trey Lance is a phenomenal prospect. There is no comparison between him and Haskins from a traits or intangibles perspective. And the same is true for Justin Fields who's getting dragged down because he went to the same school as a few lousy QBs. At least that argument has the potential for contextual merit if Fields was being propped up by a gimmicky offense but it's the opposite. Haskins threw a ton of shallow crosses to great athletes while Fields was dropping routine dimes 40+ yards down the field against top teams, hanging in the pocket as deep option routes developed.

My concern with Fields is there's a slowness to his game from his drops to his release to overhitching to slow reactions to pressure. He needs to play with more urgency at the next level or he will have the same issues Jameis Winston had. But he's much more athletic and throws a more accurate deep ball vs Jameis' first 4 years in the league so a worst-case scenario for Fields is still a quality starter.

May not be predictive but is sure is a strong correlation! I can’t find one that fits that criteria that has had success in the pros. That’s a pretty strong analytic!
 
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If he has legit work ethic concerns, it’s an issue and would make me think twice about him. But based on what he showed on the field, he is a physical specimen with toughness and accuracy.

He'd be off my board completely unless he dropped so far (3rd round) its worth a flier. Dealbreaker. IF it's true.
 

HighSeas

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May not be predictive but is sure is a strong correlation! I can’t find one that fits that criteria that has had success in the pros. That’s a pretty strong analytic!
Kyler Murray? Cam Newton?

It's a small sample size and the guys who hit are the ones with unusual circumstances. Kyler and Cam were top recruits who transferred and sat for non-football reasons. Trey Lance redshirted behind an NFL QB and went undefeated as a starter. He has a 17 game resume and it's not his fault Covid happened and cost him a season.

If you're gonna dock a guy for being a 1-year starter it's Mac Jones. But Bama is the outlier school so good luck using data to explain their prospects. With Jones I think his lack of traits is baked into him being a 1-year starter so maybe he turns into Sanchez 2.0. I happen to think he will settle in as a Dalton type though.
 

AUcane

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Kyler Murray? Cam Newton?

It's a small sample size and the guys who hit are the ones with unusual circumstances. Kyler and Cam were top recruits who transferred and sat for non-football reasons. Trey Lance redshirted behind an NFL QB and went undefeated as a starter. He has a 17 game resume and it's not his fault Covid happened and cost him a season.

If you're gonna dock a guy for being a 1-year starter it's Mac Jones. But Bama is the outlier school so good luck using data to explain their prospects. With Jones I think his lack of traits is baked into him being a 1-year starter so maybe he turns into Sanchez 2.0. I happen to think he will settle in as a Dalton type though.

Murray is arguable but cam started In JC so there’s that (and a freak of nature). But you’re right, each one has to be evaluated on its own merit. That said, The lesson here is seasoned guys do better in the pros than unseasoned guys.
 
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cookies

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If the 49ers are not going to take Fields, man, I believe the smart choice would be for Lance over Jones. The team can let him get adjusted to the speed while sitting behind Jimmy. Swap Mac/Trey onto each other teams and what would the perception be...Mac Jones would have put up video game numbers at NDSU, but would not be the front runner for the #3 pick IMO. Lance would still be a top ten pick.
 

GladeCane

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Every player is a 1of1. This trend-based analysis is descriptive not predictive.

Trey Lance is a phenomenal prospect. There is no comparison between him and Haskins from a traits or intangibles perspective. And the same is true for Justin Fields who's getting dragged down because he went to the same school as a few lousy QBs. At least that argument has the potential for contextual merit if Fields was being propped up by a gimmicky offense but it's the opposite. Haskins threw a ton of shallow crosses to great athletes while Fields was dropping routine dimes 40+ yards down the field against top teams, hanging in the pocket as deep option routes developed.

My concern with Fields is there's a slowness to his game from his drops to his release to overhitching to slow reactions to pressure. He needs to play with more urgency at the next level or he will have the same issues Jameis Winston had. But he's much more athletic and throws a more accurate deep ball vs Jameis' first 4 years in the league so a worst-case scenario for Fields is still a quality starter.
Good assessment.
 

GladeCane

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May not be predictive but is sure is a strong correlation! I can’t find one that fits that criteria that has had success in the pros. That’s a pretty strong analytic!
not sure there's a big enough sample size to draw solid conclusions, but in this business have to go with something.
 

HighSeas

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If the 49ers are not going to take Fields, man, I believe the smart choice would be for Lance over Jones. The team can let him get adjusted to the speed while sitting behind Jimmy. Swap Mac/Trey onto each other teams and what would the perception be...Mac Jones would have put up video game numbers at NDSU, but would not be the front runner for the #3 pick IMO. Lance would still be a top ten pick.
Lance does all the same things Jones does as far as efficient footwork and mastery of the quick game. They're on opposite ends of the spectrum wrt arm talent and athleticism. Accuracy disparity is overstated cause Jones has a popgun arm and his balls lose energy on the back end. He even threw some dying quails at his own Pro Day.

The moment the trade went through I said Lance is the pick and I stand by it. The stuff he did at NDSU - ballhandling from under center, quick underneath throws, opportunistic deep shots - translates perfectly to SF and he fits the mold of the type of QB Shanahan has publicly been advocating for. I also think he'd be starting by week 6 given his study habits and IQ, and how limited Jimmy G is.
 

cookies

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Lance does all the same things Jones does as far as efficient footwork and mastery of the quick game. They're on opposite ends of the spectrum wrt arm talent and athleticism. Accuracy disparity is overstated cause Jones has a popgun arm and his balls lose energy on the back end. He even threw some dying quails at his own Pro Day.

The moment the trade went through I said Lance is the pick and I stand by it. The stuff he did at NDSU - ballhandling from under center, quick underneath throws, opportunistic deep shots - translates perfectly to SF and he fits the mold of the type of QB Shanahan has publicly been advocating for. I also think he'd be starting by week 6 given his study habits and IQ, and how limited Jimmy G is.
I have not watched the tape on Lance, but a quick look has me agreeing with you. I could understand taking Mac at 12 or 15 when Fields/Lance are off the board. But trading two future first round picks for him? I guess one could have considered Denver/Carolina threats to take Mac Jones but if that were the case Philly's #6 pick was there for the taking at less of a cost.

There was some smoke about Atlanta being so infatuated with Lance that they will take him at 4. So, like you, I assumed to jumped to 3 to get Lance before Atlanta. He would thrive in SF. But the 49ers top brass did not even attend his Pro Day which would make it odd if they selected him. With Lawrence and Wilson going 1-2, who is there to smokescreen your intent to?
 

305to954

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If he has legit work ethic concerns, it’s an issue and would make me think twice about him. But based on what he showed on the field, he is a physical specimen with toughness and accuracy.
How do u feel about the “processing information” question marks?? I don’t get that at all. Like he’s supposed to go out of his way to get to read 3 when the original play has read 1 open
 

HighSeas

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I have not watched the tape on Lance, but a quick look has me agreeing with you. I could understand taking Mac at 12 or 15 when Fields/Lance are off the board. But trading two future first round picks for him? I guess one could have considered Denver/Carolina threats to take Mac Jones but if that were the case Philly's #6 pick was there for the taking at less of a cost.

There was some smoke about Atlanta being so infatuated with Lance that they will take him at 4. So, like you, I assumed to jumped to 3 to get Lance before Atlanta. He would thrive in SF. But the 49ers top brass did not even attend his Pro Day which would make it odd if they selected him. With Lawrence and Wilson going 1-2, who is there to smokescreen your intent to?
Yeah Lance makes sense to SF and ATL because they're both wide zone schemes that use a lot of play action. He's great under center with his back turned to the defense. Any QB can succeed in those offenses but Lance is practically built in a lab for it.

It does seem like Jones is the guy with the Panthers trading for Darnold. Panthers had Mac Jones at the Pro Day and you'd think they'd be targeting him if SF wasn't gonna take him...

Now if Fields winds up on Denver with their playmakers and all that boot action - could be awesome. I'm not buying Fields-Pats stuff because they value timing so much.
 
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