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Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

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Jaromir Jagr said:
When you don't host, you have to play a #1 seed, which is terrifying under Jim Morris.
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But the # 16 RPI team shouldn't be sent to the # 3 national seed just because of geography.

The team actually played well in that Gainesville Regional but just had to go through the soon-to-be national runner-up.
 
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Jaromir Jagr said:
Seeding and placement was the least of our worries in 2011.
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Disagree.

But we know that you don't follow the team as closely as you pretend.

It's bizarre how much you whine because we didn't upset the # 3 national seed in 2011. Even though we almost did (lost in extras).
 
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canesproponent said:
A #8 team should NOT play the #1 team in the first round of a 64-team tournament.
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What's more is that Georgia Tech was the # 8 national seed that year with an RPI of 11.

Why did they get it?

Because they won 21 ACC games and Miami won 20.

So 1 game determined who the final national seed was and that sent Miami on the road to Florida (# 4 RPI) instead of hosting a Super Regional against Clemson (# 19 RPI).

That's how a lot of these things get settled. Yet, Jagr pretends like everything follows an order and if we lose then it means Morris is a loser.
 
Wow. Perfectly stated.

In 2009, Miami's RPI between the dates of 3/09 and 5/25 ranged between #4 and #11 .

Florida was #6 on 5/25.

At BEST, they should meet in the Supers.

2010 was even more egregious.

In 2011, Miami was ranked anywhere between #11- #15 , you could argue that they could have been a 16 and, thereby, they would have met them in a SUPER. The NCAA placed them in a REGIONAL.

Try that in basketball. Replace the UM name with Duke, which is UM's peer in basketball and use Florida under Donovan as a proxy. If the NCAA places a #8 Duke in the first round of the NCAAs against Brewster, Noah and Hortford there would have been blood in the streets.
 
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Going to present day. The gnome is a self proclaimed "Vegas hitter".

Great. We will accept that..... As such, you know that odds = percentage of a win divided by the percentage of a loss.

The odds of a Top 8 Host winning in Omaha 0.333 --- which means that they lose 3x for every time they win.

Morris went to Omaha twice and failed once. I would kill for a coach that follows that pattern for the next 45-years because said coach will win 2 more championships. Probably not more than 2 because Fraser and Morris could both only win 2. You level the playing field and let us field those 4 blue chippers that we lose to the state schools every year, and we will win 4-8 championships. [At that point, though, the USC job becomes the best in the country again.]
 
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Jim Morris in the post-season:

2017 - No data available.........
2016 - Made CWS, then lost to two #2 seeds - Played to seed until Omaha, eliminated by lesser seeds
2015 - Made CWS, then lost to national seed - Played to seed all the way through
2014 - Lost home regional to #2 seed - Eliminated by lesser seed
2013 - Eliminated by #3 seed as a #2 seed - Eliminated by lesser seed
2012 - LOL. 0-2 as a #1 seed - Eliminated by lesser seed
2011 - Lost to #1 seed as a #2 seed - Played to seed all the way through
2010 - Won regional, lost to national seed in Super Regional - Played to seed all the way through
2009 - Lost to #1 seed as a #2 seed - Played to seed all the way through
2008 - Made CWS as national seed, lost to two #1 seeds - Essentially played to seed
2007 - Lost twice to #3 seed as a #2 seed - Eliminated by lesser seed
2006 - Won regional as #2 , went on road to win Super Regional to make CWS - Played above seed

This is our phenomenal post-season manager. We have to go back 11 years to find a post-season in which his team actually accomplished something.
 
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canesproponent said:
Wow. Perfectly stated.

In 2009, Miami's RPI between the dates of 3/09 and 5/25 ranged between #4 and #11 .

Florida was #6 on 5/25.

At BEST, they should meet in the Supers.

2010 was even more egregious.

In 2011, Miami was ranked anywhere between #11- #15 , you could argue that they could have been a 16 and, thereby, they would have met them in a SUPER. The NCAA placed them in a REGIONAL.

Try that in basketball. Replace the UM name with Duke, which is UM's peer in basketball and use Florida under Donovan as a proxy. If the NCAA places a #8 Duke in the first round of the NCAAs against Brewster, Noah and Hortford there would have been blood in the streets.
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You guys keep relying purely on RPI which is a glaring error in your logic.

Aren't you the guy who wanted us to play against the #55 team instead of Florida in a Super Regional? Maybe you should stay out of this.
 
Doppelganger said:
canesproponent said:
A #8 team should NOT play the #1 team in the first round of a 64-team tournament.
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What's more is that Georgia Tech was the # 8 national seed that year with an RPI of 11.

Why did they get it?

Because they won 21 ACC games and Miami won 20.

So 1 game determined who the final national seed was and that sent Miami on the road to Florida (# 4 RPI) instead of hosting a Super Regional against Clemson (# 19 RPI).

That's how a lot of these things get settled. Yet, Jagr pretends like everything follows an order and if we lose then it means Morris is a loser.
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Jim Morris has been eliminated by a lesser seed in 5 of his last 10 post-seasons. Let's not act like he's always getting screwed in the seeding. Funny, though, a lot of other teams manage to beat a higher seed occasionally and they don't whine about the bracket. Not us.
 
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canesproponent said:
Morris went to Omaha twice and failed once. I would kill for a coach that follows that pattern for the next 45-years because said coach will win 2 more championships.
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Jim Morris has only coached for three years? What about following the pattern that he started in 2007? His pattern is currently to make Omaha 3 times in 10 years and miss the tournament once. That's the guy you would kill for?
 
canesproponent said:
You level the playing field and let us field those 4 blue chippers that we lose to the state schools every year, and we will win 4-8 championships. [At that point, though, the USC job becomes the best in the country again.]
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We're not losing blue chippers to state schools. We're losing blue chippers to better programs. If your theory had any merit, TCU would be looking up at Texas and Texas A&M. Instead, TCU has the best program in Texas and a top five program in the country.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
We have to go back 11 years to find a post-season in which his team actually accomplished something.
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Yes of course. Three CWS appearances are not "accomplishments" according to Jagr.

And what a strange standard to have.

So being a 2-seed and getting to Omaha is "accomplishing something" but being a national seed three times and getting to Omaha is......not accomplishing something?

So unless a team overachieves, Jagr doesn't think it has accomplished anything.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
We have to go back 11 years to find a post-season in which his team actually accomplished something.
Click to expand...

Yes of course. Three CWS appearances are not "accomplishments" according to Jagr.

And what a strange standard to have.

So being a 2-seed and getting to Omaha is "accomplishing something" but being a national seed three times and getting to Omaha is......not accomplishing something?

So unless a team overachieves, Jagr doesn't think it has accomplished anything.
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You missed the point, as expected. You said Morris is a great post-season manager. Getting to Omaha as a national seed means you beat teams you were supposed to beat. Congratulations on doing what is expected. Half the time, though, and as you clearly ignored, Morris loses to lesser teams in the post-season.
 
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Jaromir Jagr said:
You guys keep relying purely on RPI which is a glaring error in your logic.
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I'm not relying solely on RPI as you would have noticed if you had read my stuff.

I said previously that the # 8 RPI team doesn't necessarily have to be a national seed. Fine. But a # 8 RPI team with 20 wins in the ACC should at least get better treatment in it's Super Regional pairing.

Maybe the # 5 or # 6 national seed at worst in its pairing.

But Miami got the # 3 national seed because of geography. So a team that was otherwise a legit contender for Omaha was made a bigger underdog in it's Super Regional than it should have.
 
Doppelganger said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
You guys keep relying purely on RPI which is a glaring error in your logic.
Click to expand...

I'm not relying solely on RPI as you would have noticed if you had read my stuff.

I said previously that the # 8 RPI team doesn't necessarily have to be a national seed. Fine. But a # 8 RPI team with 20 wins in the ACC should at least get better treatment in it's Super Regional pairing.

Maybe the # 5 or # 6 national seed at worst in its pairing.

But Miami got the # 3 national seed because of geography. So a team that was otherwise a legit contender for Omaha was made a bigger underdog in it's Super Regional than it should have.
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One off sample size. Embarrassing.
 
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Morris misses the post-season: "one-off sample sizes mean nothing"
Morris gets sent to Gainesville: "he gets screwed by geography"
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
Funny, though, a lot of other teams manage to beat a higher seed occasionally and they don't whine about the bracket. Not us.
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And many of those things play higher seeds much more frequently than we do.

And how do you know this? You always do things like this. You must troll every message board on Earth looking for teams "whining" about the bracket.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
You missed the point, as expected.
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No I didn't.

You've been making this same point forever.

Only beating higher seeds is an actual achievement. It's been one of the pillars of your argument.

Being one of the best teams in the country and getting a national seed is a detriment to "accomplishing" things according to Jagr.
 
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