Proof of Randomness in College Baseball

[Jaromir Jagr]

Feel free to be as disrespectful as you would like. There is nothing that you could say that would register.

What did you major in way back when?

Yeah, let's be friends now. So there is some kind of mental thing going on?

 

[canesproponent]

That is a BIG stretch..........

You are now backtracking because you realize how absurd your UVA data point was. Typical gnome behavior........ That was unbelievable. Complete ignorance on your part.

Show some respect to Scott. Do you have any decency? The poor guy passed away for goodness sake. He knew more about UM than anyone. He also continually eviscerated you, and exposed you as an ignoramus.

 

[Doppelganger]

Significant outliers - The good:

Arizona - 28th best record, 10 wins
UCLA - 30th best record, 9 wins

Significant outliers - The bad:

Louisville - 3rd best record, 1 win
Miami - 10th best record, 2 wins

But see these are not significant numbers. Those just represent flukes on both ends.

So what you're saying is that Miami, in their no-good "down" period, had one of the 10 best records in the country.

Why is that your numbers keep undermining your own arguments?

 

[Doppelganger]

Virginia has the best regular season record in the country over the last decade. Virginia also has the second most wins in the College World Series in the last decade. How this confused you, I have no idea.

But without a single outlier result in 2015, you'd be calling them a weak ACC team with no meaningful accomplishments.

You keep finding refuge in these one-off occurrences.

 

[Doppelganger]

If you want to make up an argument based on the facts I presented, knock yourself out.

I have and you have no answer for it.

You seem to be saying that since Virginia has the best regular season record since 2008 that their fluke win in 2015 is not random.

Teams are particular to seasons. Your saying that Brian O'Connor has a consistently good program. But that doesn't answer for 2015.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Significant outliers - The good:

Arizona - 28th best record, 10 wins
UCLA - 30th best record, 9 wins

Significant outliers - The bad:

Louisville - 3rd best record, 1 win
Miami - 10th best record, 2 wins

But see these are not significant numbers. Those just represent flukes on both ends.

So what you're saying is that Miami, in their no-good "down" period, had one of the 10 best records in the country.

Why is that your numbers keep undermining your own arguments?

I've never argued against Miami's regular season record. You've established many times that we win a lot in the regular season. The issue has always been that we can't translate that to post-season success.

Yes, I know they are "flukes". I used the term outliers. We agree on that.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Virginia has the best regular season record in the country over the last decade. Virginia also has the second most wins in the College World Series in the last decade. How this confused you, I have no idea.

But without a single outlier result in 2015, you'd be calling them a weak ACC team with no meaningful accomplishments.

You keep finding refuge in these one-off occurrences.

No, Virginia made it to the championship series in back to back seasons, and they have the best record in all of college baseball in the last decade. They have been a solid program and they were able to make two nice runs in the post-season.

Further proof that the best teams in the regular season have had success in Omaha, with the exception of Louisville and Miami.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

If you want to make up an argument based on the facts I presented, knock yourself out.

I have and you have no answer for it.

You seem to be saying that since Virginia has the best regular season record since 2008 that their fluke win in 2015 is not random.

Teams are particular to seasons. Your saying that Brian O'Connor has a consistently good program. But that doesn't answer for 2015.

**You're

Again, you're relying on your own interpretation of the facts I presented, even though I made no such claim. I made no connection between Virginia's title and their record in that season. What I did prove is that the best teams by your definition (regular season accomplishments) are the same teams that have success in Omaha, with the exception of Louisville and Miami.

No matter what you take from the facts, it is impossible to hide from the ACC's monumental collapse when it comes to Omaha success. Four of the top five records across the past decade equated to one title, and now you're demanding that the one title we did win was a fluke.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

That is a BIG stretch..........

You are now backtracking because you realize how absurd your UVA data point was. Typical gnome behavior........ That was unbelievable. Complete ignorance on your part.

Show some respect to Scott. Do you have any decency? The poor guy passed away for goodness sake. He knew more about UM than anyone. He also continually eviscerated you, and exposed you as an ignoramus.

I haven't backtracked from anyone or anything, DBC.

I have as much respect for Scott as anyone, and I said nothing that disrespected him. But I can't wait for you to tell me what screen name I used on Grassy. This is going to be fun.

 

[canesproponent]

How does a team's record during a decade translate to a Championship during a down year. That is the dumbest statement ever. You deny saying it and then support it AGAIN when someone challenges you on it. Fall on your sword. That is complete idiocy.

You probably never posted on Grassy. There are 9 fans over there who would rip your head off if you tried. They would simply ban you after a while. Also, your written shrill is easily identifiable and they would simply keep banning you. You could not post this nonsense for long.

I find it amusing that moderators here are thrilled with a Sweet 16 and deride Morris after making Omaha in both 2015 and 2016.

The only true barometer to evaluate Morris with is Omaha. How about TCU? No team has consistently ventured to Omaha more than TCU and Florida. They have 1 chmapionship between them. How do you explain that? You cannot.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

"He knew more about UM than anyone. He also continually eviscerated you, and exposed you as an ignoramus."

"You probably never posted on Grassy."

Which is it, Danny?

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

The only true barometer to evaluate Morris with is Omaha.

So Mike Martin is better than Jim Morris. Never thought a true Cane fan would say that.

 

[canesproponent]

Here are the past 12 winners. Of that list, only THREE were national seeds. THREE..... That equates to 25%. The fact that you cannot see something so basic is amazing.

Oregon State
Oregon State
Fresno State
LSU
South Carolina
South Carolina
Arizona
UCLA
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Coastal Carolina
Florida

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

9 of those 12 winners are among the 13 best teams of the past decade based on regular season record. Maybe you and the committee should stop relying on the flawed RPI.

 

[canesproponent]

Who cares?

That is completely illogical. Not sure how you defend that. They pick the top 8 teams EVERY year. Consequently, there is a high probability that ONE of those 8 will win. They only win 25% of the time. You are given 8 horses out of 64. These 8 horses were the best during a statistically significant season of 60-games. They win 25% of the time.

THAT is why getting to Omaha is the best I expect of Morris. He has to win a ton during the regular season and defy odds that are 3:1 against him [probability = n/(1+n)].

THAT is why 2015 and 2016 proved to me that the man was still elite. Even 2014 was a good year because he lost to a team that ended up in Omaha.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

They pick the top 8 teams EVERY year.

Obviously not.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Even 2014 was a good year because he lost to a team that ended up in Omaha.

You said 2014 was a great year. Which is it?

And why do you think Mike Martin has had a better career than Jim Morris?

 

[canesproponent]

That is just so dumb.

Here are your words: "9 of those 12 winners are among the 13 best teams of the past decade". How does a BAD UVA team in 2015 win because of prior years.

Do you even realize what you are saying? 75% of those teams lost a TON during the season that they won the championship. Who CARES what they did during the other seasons. The winners were not elite during the year that they won it all. THAT is the prototypical definition of random.

Also, Vanderbilt, UCLA, Fresno, Coastal and South Carolina have had terrible 4-year runs at some point during the decade. UM had one bad year.

Also, I believe that during Morris' worst stretch, EVERY team that they ultimately lost to, ended up in Omaha. Will check. [Not to mention that Perez cost him a 3rd game agaisnt Florida two years in a row. Not to mention, that the NCAA seeded UM for geography for 3 of those years. ]

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Here are your words: "9 of those 12 winners are among the 13 best teams of the past decade". How does a BAD UVA team in 2015 win because of prior years.

They weren't bad. They came off a CWS finals appearance and made another CWS finals appearance. Only you would call that a bad team. Have you bothered to look at their schedule? Why are you calling them a bad team because of a nine game stretch in March?

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Also, Vanderbilt, UCLA, Fresno, Coastal and South Carolina have had terrible 4-year runs at some point during the decade. UM had one bad year.

Please show me the four year bad stretches by Vanderbilt, UCLA, Coastal, and South Carolina. Thanks in advance.