Portal Preview from Cooper Petagna

[Rellyrell]

To Dmoney's perpetual point about YPP being the better measure, the numbers look better. If you throw out the first years at each school, he's averaged 23rd. That's enough to win you a championship with a good defense. For reference, Lane Kiffin has averaged 19th at Ole Miss.

2018 - 58th - First season
2019 - 26th
2020 - 12th
2021 - 39th
2022 - 89th - First season
2023 - 24th
2024 - 1st
2025 - 38th

Interesting;

I respectfully disagree. YPP can easily be skewed and manipulated. Allow me to give u an example:

Team A is dominating a game both on the scoreboard & in total yards. Team A calls off the dogs, but Team B is trying to make it respectable, as Team B continues to tote the rock. On paper, it looks like Team B put up stats, but in reality it was garbage time #’s.

However, let’s cook w this, I mean my favorite dish to make is gumbo, so let’s add this to the recipe. I stated 2024 was an anomaly, not the norm. By u including 2024, it’s actually skewing ur YPP data. Again, the point of contention was Mario wants a “historically good offense” like last yr, which means u have to see what he’s produced prior to & after last yr to verify/qualify that statement, not include it.

Removing last yr, the offensive YPP avg. is 28th not 23rd, & this is furthering skewing the data by pretending he wasn’t a HC in 2018 & 2022. Not sure y we give Mario all this grace to skew data, but other coaches are not giving this same grace, but I distress.

Anyways, once again, there’s not a single data point proving that’s what Mario wants or prefers.

 

[Rellyrell]

What “data” are you referring to? Your own stats showed that his teams have been better passing than running almost every year.

In terms of play selection, his teams at Oregon ran more than they threw. His teams at Miami (with the exception of this year) have all thrown more than they’ve run. It’s hard to find a pattern there.

I think last year was his “dream offense” because he’s called it a dream offense and they were his best offense by far. That seems like common sense to me.

My view is that he’s not ideological at all. He’s never called plays. He wants a tough and physical running team, but he had that last year in a majority pass offense. He strikes me as a guy who is highly dependent on his quarterback and coordinator and will take the shiniest toy available.

Stop parroting the same talking point. I said “historically” not mediocre. So what if his passing O ranked 49th while his rushing O ranked 60th. What does that even mean?

& u have to stop w the “he doesn’t call plays” narrative. He’s the HC who made hires based upon his philosophy or did u not remember him stating this when hiring Gattis & Dawson? Mario is an optics guy, **** even @Cribby stated this. I knew this b/c I was given a behind the scenes look on how he recruited at Oregon. Big names, stars, thorough evaluation be damned.

Just like I tell LBJ Stans what does the eye test tell u? What does he say vs. show? Well, D$, what does the eye test tell u from his time at Oregon & Miami sans 2024? What does he say vs. show?

 

[DMoney]

Stop parroting the same talking point. I said “historically” not mediocre.

Ah, I see the disconnect now. I think we're talking about different things.

When I said last year's offense was "historic," I didn't mean that Mario had a history of great offenses. He doesn't. I meant that last season's offense was historically good, maybe the best in school history. And that if we're talking about an "ideal" or "dream" situation, that would be it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's why we're talking past each other.

 

[mossmadness]

Here’s an Oregon 2020 preview looking back at 2019 Oregon. That 2019 Oregon is generally regarded as being Mario’s best team. And returned arguably the top QB in CFB.

Duck Dive: Oregon Football 2020 Preview

Going deep with the Ducks’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns

www.addictedtoquack.com

Oregon finished the 2019 regular season with the #18 offense in SP+ and a similar top-20 ranking in every other advanced statistical system. It was pretty efficient on my tally sheet, generating enough yards given the down & distance to stay ahead of the chains on 55.4% of all plays outside of garbage time (60.6% rushing and 51.1% passing).
The fact that Mario only finished 18th in SP+ offense with Herbert at QB is not great.

But you see the hallmark of a Mario offense. Great down to down success rate, with the running being a little more efficient.

So why only 18th with that kind of down to down success?

From film study, I think this comes down to problems in the intermediate and deep passing game. They were almost 10 percentage points more efficient running than throwing on a per-play basis, the screen component of the passing attack is far more efficient than downfield passing, and there’s a huge disparity in their explosive rushing vs passing league ranks: third for the former, eighth for the latter. Situationally, Oregon was very efficient in every down & distance category, including run vs pass subcategory splits, with the exception of 3rd & medium/long where they passed almost exclusively and had a lousy conversion rate (they also threw too much on 2nd & long, but that’s less severe).
In my opinion, the numbers back up what I’ve been reporting in my film review articles for the last two years: Oregon had an overall very effective offense that revolved around an excellent efficiency run game, and the bottleneck that kept them from having a top-10 offense was that the passing offense was highly inconsistent in clutch situations.

Passing offense struggled throwing the ball downfield.
Passing offense struggled when the first down running success rate wasn’t there to set up the simple stuff for the passing game the next two downs.

So despite the general down to down success rate, a lack of explosiveness kept the offense being a Top 10 overall offense even with an elite star at QB.

Pick a Mario offense outside of Cam Ward. Any year, I don’t care. And you will get the exact same result:

Great down to down success rate, largely led by the running game. Brought down by passing game.

 

[mossmadness]

Ah, I see the disconnect now. I think we're talking about different things.

When I said last year's offense was "historic," I didn't mean that Mario had a history of great offenses or offenses that played in that style. He doesn't. I meant that last season's offense was historically good, maybe the best in school history. And that if we're talking about an "ideal" or "dream" situation, that would be it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's why we're talking past each other.

Yes. Mario’s ideal offense if he could make a wish would be to have the number one offense in college football.

You got us there. I will concede that amazing point.

 

[DMoney]

Yes. Mario’s ideal offense if he could make a wish would be to have the number one offense in college football.

You got us there. I will concede that amazing point.

Yes, that is what "ideal" and "dream" usually means. And he just had it, so it wasn't only a wish.

 

[Rellyrell]

Ah, I see the disconnect now. I think we're talking about different things.

When I said last year's offense was "historic," I didn't mean that Mario had a history of great offenses. He doesn't. I meant that last season's offense was historically good, maybe the best in school history. And that if we're talking about an "ideal" or "dream" situation, that would be it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's why we're talking past each other.

Most likely. So I’m getting he tried to duplicate last yr by going after Beck?

 

[Calinative]

U said “historically good offense,” & the data doesn’t support this, like at all.

& when u say “common sense” are u now stating ur opinion as what Mario wants? Respectfully, u stated something as a fact of what Mario wants, then proceed to rebut this by saying “common sense” & “we don’t think he wants…”

What I “think” Mario wants is a complementary football where the Passing O is competent, & it feeds off the Rushing O. I think he wants a physical defense. Being that I’ve heard him criticized us passing the ball, too, much in certain games where the defense was gassed + the empirical, irrefutable data, I’m not going to use a one off to say that’s what he wants. That’s like me looking at one game of Dennis Rodman’s stat line of 34 points & 23 rebounds & assume he’s a scorer.

You actually would have to be literally retarded to think a guys dream offense isnt the one that he finished the season #1 with lmao.

When Mario goes to bed at night do you think he's dreaming of his offenses at Oregon, his years with TVD, or Last year with Cam Ward? Lmao.

If anything last year fully proves that what he wants is that tough and physical offense but when paired with an elite QB it can actually work. Idk how you would look at those results (especially if you think Mario is dumb) and not think Mario is pointing to that as his greatest example of how his dream/ideal offense works lol.

 

[DMoney]

Most likely. So I’m getting he tried to duplicate last yr by going after Beck?

I think he went after the shiniest toy available. His first choice was Mateer.

That's what I'm saying- I don't think he has an offensive philosophy one way or the other. It is QB and OC dependent. Since he's been at Miami, we've thrown it more than we've ran it. At Oregon, it was the opposite.

Ultimately, I think he wants to be able run the ball with physicality and score points. Last year, we did both. This year, we aren't doing enough of either.

 

[mossmadness]

Here’s another Oregon breakdown of the 2021 offense. So two years removed from Herbert. 2 more recruiting classes to bring in Mario’s guys to run what Mario wants to do.

The 2021 season is actually Mario’s highest rated offense in SP+ outside of ‘24. Even better than 2019 with Herbert.

Oregon Football 2021 Offensive Statistical Review

Notes and grades from 14 charted games

www.addictedtoquack.com

The final category is passing efficiency, where the Ducks were just barely above water in per-play success rate.
Excluding screens, Oregon had 175 successful downfield passing plays vs 160 unsuccessful ones, or about 52% efficiency. That’s not a championship caliber number, but it’s actually an improvement in the same category compared to Oregon’s 2019 Rose Bowl-winning season when they were underwater in downfield passing efficiency.
Breaking down the Ducks’ 48% failure rate on downfield passing plays in 2021…

….

Downfield passing when the Ducks were in 3rd & 4 or longer was only effective 35% of the time, by far their worst intersection of situation and playcall. Overall, Oregon converted 52% of their 3rd downs excluding garbage time, which is a very good number. But that’s almost entirely on the strength of good 1st- and 2nd-down performance setting up 3rd & shorts, as well as Oregon’s high rushing success rate (including when they’d break tendency and run on 3rd & 4 or longer, at which they were 60% effective). Compared to other teams I’ve charted over the last decade, this overreliance on inefficient 3rd-down passing is the biggest departure from championship-caliber teams…

The song remains the same…

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

I think he went after the shiniest toy available. His first choice was Mateer.

That's what I'm saying- I don't think he has an offensive philosophy one way or the other. It is QB and OC dependent. Since he's been at Miami, we've thrown it more than we've ran it. At Oregon, it was the opposite.

Ultimately, I think he wants to be able run the ball with physicality and score points. Last year, we did both. This year, we aren't doing enough of either.

I think his main focus is on recruiting/developing/having a massive, physical offensive line. I think if you got him in the corner of a dimly lit bar and asked him to say the first thing he wants when starting a football team from scratch, he would immediately say "dominant offensive line".

And, last year, he had it. We were exceptional in run and pass blocking. Cam Ward sure as **** helped out a ton in making the whole thing go, but I think last year the OL is just what he wanted. For whatever reason, and as I pointed out in the other thread yesterday about the run game, I believe it's several reasons, but at the end of the day, the OL has not been as good this year in run push. We're in the 100s in yards before contact this year, that's terrible and not indicative of a good offensive line.

Whatever happens from there is somewhat secondary to Mario, IMO. Do we lean into duo exclusively and be a run-first team, conservative, ball control, etc? Or do we run the offense the way we did last year? Last year we ran the ball on 45% of our plays, which was 112th in the country. This year, we're running the ball on 53% of our plays, which is 50th in the country. I have no idea what happened this year, if you say it's 100% Mario, I have no way to refute it, but what we're seeing this year isn't even close to what we saw last year, both philosophically and execution wise. We are purposely being the most boring offense imaginable. And that's not accidental, we're playing the way we play by design. And it's Mario's team, so I have to put it at his feet. I personally don't feel he has near the input on play-calls that others do, but it doesn't really matter, everything that happens here is his responsibility.

 

[htownkidd]

I think his main focus is on recruiting/developing/having a massive, physical offensive line. I think if you got him in the corner of a dimly lit bar and asked him to say the first thing he wants when starting a football team from scratch, he would immediately say "dominant offensive line".

And, last year, he had it. We were exceptional in run and pass blocking. Cam Ward sure as **** helped out a ton in making the whole thing go, but I think last year the OL is just what he wanted. For whatever reason, and as I pointed out in the other thread yesterday about the run game, I believe it's several reasons, but at the end of the day, the OL has not been as good this year in run push. We're in the 100s in yards before contact this year, that's terrible and not indicative of a good offensive line.

Whatever happens from there is somewhat secondary to Mario, IMO. Do we lean into duo exclusively and be a run-first team, conservative, ball control, etc? Or do we run the offense the way we did last year? Last year we ran the ball on 45% of our plays, which was 112th in the country. This year, we're running the ball on 53% of our plays, which is 50th in the country. I have no idea what happened this year, if you say it's 100% Mario, I have no way to refute it, but what we're seeing this year isn't even close to what we saw last year, both philosophically and execution wise. We are purposely being the most boring offense imaginable. And that's not accidental, we're playing the way we play by design. And it's Mario's team, so I have to put it at his feet. I personally don't feel he has near the input on play-calls that others do, but it doesn't really matter, everything that happens here is his responsibility.

Hot take (not really): Take last years OL and put them on this team this year and I don’t think we see that much of a difference in the run game. As long as we have this QB and these backs, that OL wouldn’t look that much better than this one does.

Last years OL excelled more than anything because of Cam/the offensive attack, and a back that NEVER went down first contact. They didn’t have backers consistently crashing the A gap and defenders not respecting the QB on RPO’s and not respecting our pass game like we do this year. DC’s had to respect everything, they CLEARLY don’t this year because aside from FSU (a team about to finish 5-7/6-6 btw), we haven’t given them a reason to. I know you acknowledged Cam in your post, but it isn’t said enough.

Carptenter >>> Brock, so that would make a difference for sure. But an OL can still only do so much when the defense has no respect for the QB/passing game and WE HELP THEM BY DOING EVERYTHING WITHIN A 10 YARD BOX. Put this years OL on last years team with Cam, and Damien and they’d look miles better as well.

 

[Calinative]

Baugh would be awesome at RB here.

Am I the only one who thinks it genuinely doesn't matter whatsoever what happens at RB, and adding any top RB out of the portal could be an idiotic use of resources?

I mean I suppose if Lyle portalled out and Fletcher declared I could see getting 1 RB. But I wouldn't break the bank and .... I mean I guess I hope all that happens, because I'm kinda done with a Fletcher led RB unit and Lyle has been a complete flop who either needs a massive pay cut or needs to move on.

But we can get a much cheaper RB option to produce the same Id think. And we will likely have 2 bigger Freshman backs coming in.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

You actually would have to be literally retarded to think a guys dream offense isnt the one that he finished the season #1 with lmao.

When Mario goes to bed at night do you think he's dreaming of his offenses at Oregon, his years with TVD, or Last year with Cam Ward? Lmao.

If anything last year fully proves that what he wants is that tough and physical offense but when paired with an elite QB it can actually work. Idk how you would look at those results (especially if you think Mario is dumb) and not think Mario is pointing to that as his greatest example of how his dream/ideal offense works lol.

This sounds cut and dry, and it should be. But it's not always the case.

I worked under a HC who was an O-lineman in the 80s and then an O-line coach, just like Mario. He HATED high powered, quick scoring offenses because he was convinced they'd be the death of his defense.

Some of the comments Mario has made and a lot of the plays we've been running are giving me PTSD. I would confidently bet you a finger than Mario blames some of last season's defensive issues on our O.

Unlike a lot of people on here, I do believe he wants to win no matter what. But I've seen this movie before and stubborness won't change the ending.

 

[Calinative]

What about Austin Simmons?

As a QB2 yes.

If we brought in a top QB, Simmons, and Coleman, lost Emory and maybe Judd... That'd be a massive upgrade to our QB room.

But Simmons would only come if we were getting a 1yr portal QB, whereas id have JKS and Mestemaker near the top of the board. I could still go for a 1yr guy over them if it was a truly elite player and fit in this offense...

But if you had Simmons, Nickel, and Coleman competing for job next yr that could be pretty good

 

[ben]

i think we should target players who can help our offense stay on schedule / went to columbus

 

[flips]

Am I the only one who thinks it genuinely doesn't matter whatsoever what happens at RB, and adding any top RB out of the portal could be an idiotic use of resources?

I mean I suppose if Lyle portalled out and Fletcher declared I could see getting 1 RB. But I wouldn't break the bank and .... I mean I guess I hope all that happens, because I'm kinda done with a Fletcher led RB unit and Lyle has been a complete flop who either needs a massive pay cut or needs to move on.

But we can get a much cheaper RB option to produce the same Id think. And we will likely have 2 bigger Freshman backs coming in.

I assumed either Fletcher or Lyle wouldn't be here next year (possibly both as you point out).

To your broader point, I think it was money well spent on Martinez last year. Feel similar about Baugh.

Brown probably won us the ND game, and he's in the "cheaper RB" bucket, but he's obviously much more limited than Martinez was in this offense.

Edit: another intriguing possibility at RB could be Mekhi Hughes who has been a dud at Oregon, was great at Tulane, and has another year. He'd obviously be a lot cheaper than Baugh.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

A lot of semantics in this discussion and so it looks like people may be speaking on different things, or disagreeing on minor points that are mostly inconsequential to the greater discussion.

I don't think Mario has a preferred "offensive scheme," but he has a preferred "offensive identity". Obviously my opinion, but in his dreams, his offenses are relatively conservative but efficient, methodical in their approach, dominant at the line of scrimmage using power, not particularly concerned with stretching teams horizontally or vertically, and dominate time of possession to soften opposing defenses while protecting his own defense. Neither feast nor famine, they execute routine plays consistently, and consistently win with execution. In his dreams, at least...

By example, if given the choice between a 4-play, 75 yard TD drive that eats up 1:30, and a 10-play, 75 yard TD drive that eats up 5:30, Mario picks the latter unless he's trailing in the 4th quarter (and sometimes even then).

 

[Gocanes1990]

in summary Beck is average to below average. Cam was pick 1. Martinez should have stayed an extra year.

Hot take (not really): Take last years OL and put them on this team this year and I don’t think we see that much of a difference in the run game. As long as we have this QB and these backs, that OL wouldn’t look that much better than this one does.

Last years OL excelled more than anything because of Cam/the offensive attack, and a back that NEVER went down first contact. They didn’t have backers consistently crashing the A gap and defenders not respecting the QB on RPO’s and not respecting our pass game like we do this year. DC’s had to respect everything, they CLEARLY don’t this year because aside from FSU (a team about to finish 5-7/6-6 btw), we haven’t given them a reason to. I know you acknowledged Cam in your post, but it isn’t said enough.

Carptenter >>> Brock, so that would make a difference for sure. But an OL can still only do so much when the defense has no respect for the QB/passing game and WE HELP THEM BY DOING EVERYTHING WITHIN A 10 YARD BOX. Put this years OL on last years team with Cam, and Damien and they’d look miles better as well.

 

[The U is back to work]

in summary Beck is average to below average. Cam was pick 1. Martinez should have stayed an extra year.

Martinez leaving and not even making it to Game 1 is insane given he has 6 yard a carry average.