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Phillips 1st rnd Projection

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Warrior808

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Dan Brugler (by far THE best in the business) now has Jaelan Phillips projected at pick 26 in the first rnd. Gotta admit, if he goes in round 1 it was a good decision to leave early. The money makes sense vs the risk & minimal upside of returning. FYI he has Rousseau at #14, thats crazy to have TWO first round defensive ends in the same year. ****, woulda been fun to see them all together along with Roche. What could have been in that Nascar package....

Still think the correct business decision for Brevin would have been to return unless he got into the 2nd. If he doesn't at least make 3rd round it was a bad call, too much potential money and guarantees left on the table.
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
I’m usually an advocate of kids leaving if they want to; their life, their choice. But, Phillips, even though projected as a 1st round pick, is giving up money that he’ll never get back. I think he should’ve returned but … I respect his choice.
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huh? He is getting 1st rd money. Never worth the risk to come back and possibly move up a few spots. His time is now.

same with brevin. Injury prone so he needs to get to the NFL now. Another injury prone year or massive injury and Brevin could slip to 5th-7th territory. If he is too 3 rds he made the right choice for him.
 
No combine will hurt guys like Phillips and Greg who would have tested very well. Greg is a mid first and I think Phillips goes late first at the earliest but 2nd round sounds about right. If Phillips came back next year and had a good year he's a top 15 pick no doubt. Obviously, it would have been nice to have him back but I get it.
 
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BeastMode said:
huh? He is getting 1st rd money. Never worth the risk to come back and possibly move up a few spots. His time is now.

same with brevin. Injury prone so he needs to get to the NFL now. Another injury prone year or massive injury and Brevin could slip to 5th-7th territory. If he is too 3 rds he made the right choice for him.
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The question you have to ask yourself is do you think he could be a top-8 pick in the 2022 draft. If you believe he could, and I do, then the difference in SIGNING BONUS MONEY ALONE would be worth more than his entire 2021 contract.

It’s NOT the same with Brevin, it’s different. The difference in signing bonus money from the 2nd round to the 4th round is comparatively negligible. It made sense for him to leave — even though I think he could’ve benefited from the return.

there’s also a benefit to the later rounds/UDFA: shorter contracts.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
The question you have to ask yourself is do you think he could be a top-8 pick in the 2022 draft. If you believe he could, and I do, then the difference in SIGNING BONUS MONEY ALONE would be worth more than his entire 2021 contract.

It’s NOT the same with Brevin, it’s different. The difference in signing bonus money from the 2nd round to the 4th round is comparatively negligible. It made sense for him to leave — even though I think he could’ve benefited from the return.

there’s also a benefit to the later rounds/UDFA: shorter contracts.
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Brevin has talent but doubt he would play a full season without any more injuries so probably wouldn't help him to come back
 
Warrior808 said:
Dan Brugler (by far THE best in the business) now has Jaelan Phillips projected at pick 26 in the first rnd. Gotta admit, if he goes in round 1 it was a good decision to leave early. The money makes sense vs the risk & minimal upside of returning. FYI he has Rousseau at #14, thats crazy to have TWO first round defensive ends in the same year. ****, woulda been fun to see them all together along with Roche. What could have been in that Nascar package....

Still think the correct business decision for Brevin would have been to return unless he got into the 2nd. If he doesn't at least make 3rd round it was a bad call, too much potential money and guarantees left on the table.
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Didn't we have a thread where folks discussed who should / would go higher between them?
 
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BeastMode said:
huh? He is getting 1st rd money. Never worth the risk to come back and possibly move up a few spots. His time is now.

same with brevin. Injury prone so he needs to get to the NFL now. Another injury prone year or massive injury and Brevin could slip to 5th-7th territory. If he is too 3 rds he made the right choice for him.
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There's two types of first round money. I can have a well done round steak or a medium-rare Mignon. Either way I have steak for dinner, but one is obviously better. He comes back and stays healthy, he gets the Mignon as opposed to the hockey puck.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:

8. Cardinals LB Isaiah Simmons​

Status: Signed
Contract: $20.66 million for four years (fully guaranteed)
Signing bonus: $12.58 million

28. Ravens LB Patrick Queen​

Status: Signed
Contract: $12.161 million for four years ($11.483 million guaranteed)
Signing bonus: $6.4 million
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Phillips could also get injured and lose a ton of money.
 
BeastMode said:
Phillips could also get injured and lose a ton of money.
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He could also get injured training for the draft in 2021 and lose a lot of money … what’s your point?

It remains that he POTENTIALLY ****ed himself out of more guaranteed money in signing bonus than he could possibly earn — even as a first round pick. How do you not see this?
 
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BeastMode said:
Phillips could also get injured and lose a ton of money.
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That post actually makes me change my mind lol. I agree with you now, not worth the risk IMO. I'd take a guaranteed 17 mill versus a chance to make an additional 15 with the risk of losing 10+ every time.
 
I think his injury history drops him into the second round. NFL GM's are usually risk adverse with their first round picks. Phillips could have came back and made himself a lot of money but I see why he would go ahead and declare.
 
I can see it both ways with Phillips but if you have a chance to make generational money its hard to fault a guy for taking it. Sure, there is legit opportunity to make millions more but at a certain point you have to lock in the gains and drop some risk.

4th round money, nah I am coming back and gambling on myself. Especially if just one solid year without injury probably bumps me to the second like Brevin. It's all about risk vs reward and where that tipping point is. If the athletic potential is there, HAVE to get into that second round or doesn't make business sense to leave early.

Average Guaranteed Dollars by Round
1st Round – $16,939,370
2nd Round – $3,786853
3rd Round – $946,211
4th Round – $692,925
5th Round – $301,369
6th Round – $161,745
7th Round – $88,795
 
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Tetragrammaton Cane said:
I’m usually an advocate of kids leaving if they want to; their life, their choice. But, Phillips, even though projected as a 1st round pick, is giving up money that he’ll never get back. I think he should’ve returned but … I respect his choice.
Click to expand...
The guy that was this close to quitting football because of injuries is now being projected as a late first rounder? You are smarter than that.
 
Tetragrammaton Cane said:
He could also get injured training for the draft in 2021 and lose a lot of money … what’s your point?

It remains that he POTENTIALLY ****ed himself out of more guaranteed money in signing bonus than he could possibly earn — even as a first round pick. How do you not see this?
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he also guaranteed himself the money he will get when picked in the 1st rd. How do you not see this?
Glass half full vs glass half empty. He made the correct decision
 
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